Is It Time For Silver?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by yakpoo, Jun 21, 2019.

  1. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    With the Gold/Silver ratio nearing all time highs, do you think it's more likely that gold will correct lower or silver will correct higher?

    My "guess" is that geopolitical tensions, the 2020 election, and central bank easing will keep wind in the Gold sails for some time. Therefore, if the Gold/Silver ratio is to retreat to recent historical norms (~60), this could be a bullish sign for silver.

    gold-to-silver-ratio-2019-06-21-macrotrends.png
     
    Randy Abercrombie likes this.
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  3. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    Regardless of the price of either, I think there will still be buyers and sellers.

    Chris
     
  4. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    Wow..just a few short years ago silver was over $40/Oz and the CT bullion section was hopping! Now we're at $15/Oz and there's barely a peep!

    I predict $1500/Oz Gold and $25/Oz Silver (GSR=60) by Christmas.
    Let's see how close we get.
     
  5. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    I'll predict $1,200 and $14.50 with a GSR of 82.76.
     
    yakpoo likes this.
  6. Randy Abercrombie

    Randy Abercrombie Supporter! Supporter

    I wish I would have known about CT back in 2011 when silver skyrocketed. I been stacking since before the turn of the century but I did get sucked in when silver went above $25.00. I bought a number of rolls of eagles that I’ll never make my money back on. And I was still a poor man back then too! Fortunately I found my bearings along the way and now my silver stacks are willed to my kids/grandkids. That way I won’t have to feel the torture of selling them at a loss!
     
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  7. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    That's because we're too busy buying! :)
     
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  8. green18

    green18 Sweet on Commemorative Coins Supporter

    Funded my foray into 'classic commems' with 2010 silver sold. Funded more purchases with 2011 silver eagle anniversary sets.........standing pat at the moment on silver. Premiums too high to purchase at this time.
     
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  9. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    $25 Silver !! I dont think that,s realistic, i think Silver would have a really
    Tough time pushing past $20 in any event, just to much of it, as far as
    Gold goes, i think the sky is the limit, palladium is running wild as well.
     
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  10. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member


    Yeah they can't even post realistic comments. $25 by Christmas. Come the %&%% on. We just had a world event that has bumped Gold up almost $200 in the last 2 weeks and silver is up 40 cents. Right now on the overnights Gold up $6 both plat and palladium up ----- silver down 2%. The GSR is now about 92. Yeah it has to fall someday. Problem is the silver side has been saying it would fall since it was 35. Bet LOST. In the real world, you don't get to keep starting the bet over. The silver crowd always screaming "Do-Overs"
     
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  11. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    I think if your going to collect/Invest in Silver you have to have something extra
    Special about it, and dont get me started on graded bullion...LOL
     
  12. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    Hey Greenie!

    Remember my thread entitled "Free Money"?
    I hope you built a stack of 2012 silver proof sets like I did!

    Btw, it took 10 long years, but I completed my MS70/PF70 First Ladies. I don't know if they will ever be worth more than I paid, but it was an itch I had to scratch.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2019
    green18 likes this.
  13. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    A trade deal with China will certainly get us there. I hope you're right.
     
  14. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    It'll be interesting to see how high the GSR can go.
     
  15. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Not trying to start a war here, but your humble narrator finds the GSR to be horse manure.
     
  16. green18

    green18 Sweet on Commemorative Coins Supporter

    I bought a few extra.......:)
     
    yakpoo likes this.
  17. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    No "war"...I don't have a dog in this fight either way...just curious what everyone thinks. I've read about the GSR, but never traded it. However, I've known people who have used it to good effect in the past.

    They couple the GSR with fundamental analysis to decide over-bought/over-sold conditions, then purchase put/call options on both Silver and Gold...based on an anticipated trend reversal.

    Investopedia gives a brief description...
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080316/historical-guide-goldsilver-ratio.asp

    I was hoping someone here may have used one of the various strategies and had some thoughts to share. In a companion piece, Investopedia says...
    • Gold and Silver Bullion and Coins. It is not recommended that this trade be executed with physical gold for a number of reasons ranging from liquidity to convenience to security. Just don't do it.
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/gold-silver-ration.asp

    All I hear CT people talk about is stacking physical bullion...not using the GSR as a signal to sell one PM to buy the other...maximizing total holdings.
     
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
  18. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    I suppose having labeled the GSR in the fashion I did, I owe an explanation of why I believe the way I do. If you have had investment success with the ratio, then I congratulate you. A profit is a profit, period.

    Here’s why I discount the ratio:

    — It is based purely on past performance. I often use the Racing Form comparison — it tells you how the horse ran in the past, but the horse today (with your money on it) might drop dead coming out of the gate today.

    By the way, a lot of info and ideas in investing fit that description — what the stock has done and not what its prospects, strengths and weaknesses my be in the future. For the same reason, I’m not a stock market “chartist.”

    — Although asset classes do tend to go up and down in tandem, the factors behind those moves are the key (at least for my strategy). Such things as the GSR attempt to boil all of that into one easy figure. I don’t believe that is wise.

    For example, when the stock market “crashed” in 1987, the Dow Jones was at 2,000. Today, it is over 26,000 — something not even imagined in ‘87.

    — I also question whether gold has been traded in a wide open, free market environment long enough for anything like the GSR to have proven long-term validity.

    There you go. I’d really like to hear other views. Investing is a continuous education process — and I always am open to more schooling.

    Thanks, all!
     
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  19. rte

    rte Well-Known Member

    And There Goes Yet Another Trade Secret.
     
  20. longnine009

    longnine009 Most Exalted Excellency

  21. Don P

    Don P Active Member

    Personally, I think silver is lucky to break $16.50 an ounce by year end. I don't see any real moves until some of these silver miners start going bust and the supply starts to dwindle.

    JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have been suppressing silver for years, but silvers time will come.

    I'll probably sell if it ever break $25/ounce.
     
    HaleiwaHI likes this.
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