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<p>[QUOTE="InfleXion, post: 1323810, member: 29012"]I'm not banking on the collapse of any currency, but it's clear to me that the value of all currencies is being eroded. The USD is the preferred currency because it is the world reserve currency. China, Russia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and others (formerly Libya and Iraq before regime changes) are working to transition this role away from the US, because the consequences of our money printing (inflation, higher prices) effect every nation in the world when oil must be bought and sold in US dollars. So I would not want to be holding USD at the time of this transition if and when it does happen, but until then it will easily be the most attractive currency. There's no guarantee this change has to happen, but nothing lasts forever either. </p><p><br /></p><p>I don't really base my precious metal projections on what anybody thinks is going to happen, because nobody knows the future and people can be wrong. What I try to base them on are the supposed laws that govern the relationships between all these things. It's not possible to print money indefinitely without the price of commodities rising. It may not happen right away, there may be bumps along the way, but eventually the gold price has to catch up with the money supply. This is why some analysts say that gold should be between $6,000 and $10,000, because for a long time it tracked the money supply, and if it were doing so today that's the price range it should be in. </p><p><br /></p><p>The thing about today's markets is that these fundamental laws can be bypassed by controlling the price of real commodities with paper contracts that don't necessarily have what they represent in the real world, so the skewed dynamics we have could and probably will last as long as the current market systems are in place. There's no telling what the timeframe will be, but what I am banking on is that one day we will see fair value in precious metals. A market cannot be withheld from equilibrium indefinitely. As long as market dynamics are not driven by the physical commodity I will have no expectation of price movement, because real life supply and demand are of miniscule relevance, and my goal will be to accumulate as much as possible regardless of price.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="InfleXion, post: 1323810, member: 29012"]I'm not banking on the collapse of any currency, but it's clear to me that the value of all currencies is being eroded. The USD is the preferred currency because it is the world reserve currency. China, Russia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and others (formerly Libya and Iraq before regime changes) are working to transition this role away from the US, because the consequences of our money printing (inflation, higher prices) effect every nation in the world when oil must be bought and sold in US dollars. So I would not want to be holding USD at the time of this transition if and when it does happen, but until then it will easily be the most attractive currency. There's no guarantee this change has to happen, but nothing lasts forever either. I don't really base my precious metal projections on what anybody thinks is going to happen, because nobody knows the future and people can be wrong. What I try to base them on are the supposed laws that govern the relationships between all these things. It's not possible to print money indefinitely without the price of commodities rising. It may not happen right away, there may be bumps along the way, but eventually the gold price has to catch up with the money supply. This is why some analysts say that gold should be between $6,000 and $10,000, because for a long time it tracked the money supply, and if it were doing so today that's the price range it should be in. The thing about today's markets is that these fundamental laws can be bypassed by controlling the price of real commodities with paper contracts that don't necessarily have what they represent in the real world, so the skewed dynamics we have could and probably will last as long as the current market systems are in place. There's no telling what the timeframe will be, but what I am banking on is that one day we will see fair value in precious metals. A market cannot be withheld from equilibrium indefinitely. As long as market dynamics are not driven by the physical commodity I will have no expectation of price movement, because real life supply and demand are of miniscule relevance, and my goal will be to accumulate as much as possible regardless of price.[/QUOTE]
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