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<p>[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 1243732, member: 26302"]Cloud, I know you and I disagree about DCA. My take, is that most people do not have the money to put all money they want to have in an asset at once. Therefor, if you will be buying periodically, DCA is superior unless you KNOW when to buy on lows. My crystal ball is broken, so I never KNOW, so I simply invest what I can periodically in a DCA manner.</p><p><br /></p><p>Any comparisons Cloud that state only one particular scenario makes DCA valuable I would have to see the details. The devil is in the details in these analysis, and I have seen WAY too many underestimate risk, cost of funds, etc etc ad nauseum. Of COURSE, if someone can predict the market, know when its low and will go higher, or when its high and will go lower, they should take advantage of that knowledge with a ton of cash. Most people:</p><p><br /></p><p>1. Do not know this</p><p>2. Do not have very much liquid cash at a time</p><p>3. If they try to guess the market small investor psychology will have them "betting the farm" in high markets, and selling in low markets. Everyone has seen this repeatedly. I actually use small investor sentiment as my BEST predictor of future market direction, EXACTLY OPPOSITE their view. Many financial professionals do the same.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, to me, absent superior knowledge than the market AND the cash to use, most investors ARE better of DCA into a market over time.</p><p><br /></p><p>If anyone has a detailed study showing another method to get into a market over time, I would be glad to review the study, methodologies, and assumptions. </p><p><br /></p><p>Chris</p><p><br /></p><p>P.S. Yes, I know I will never change your mind either Cloud, and that is cool too.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 1243732, member: 26302"]Cloud, I know you and I disagree about DCA. My take, is that most people do not have the money to put all money they want to have in an asset at once. Therefor, if you will be buying periodically, DCA is superior unless you KNOW when to buy on lows. My crystal ball is broken, so I never KNOW, so I simply invest what I can periodically in a DCA manner. Any comparisons Cloud that state only one particular scenario makes DCA valuable I would have to see the details. The devil is in the details in these analysis, and I have seen WAY too many underestimate risk, cost of funds, etc etc ad nauseum. Of COURSE, if someone can predict the market, know when its low and will go higher, or when its high and will go lower, they should take advantage of that knowledge with a ton of cash. Most people: 1. Do not know this 2. Do not have very much liquid cash at a time 3. If they try to guess the market small investor psychology will have them "betting the farm" in high markets, and selling in low markets. Everyone has seen this repeatedly. I actually use small investor sentiment as my BEST predictor of future market direction, EXACTLY OPPOSITE their view. Many financial professionals do the same. So, to me, absent superior knowledge than the market AND the cash to use, most investors ARE better of DCA into a market over time. If anyone has a detailed study showing another method to get into a market over time, I would be glad to review the study, methodologies, and assumptions. Chris P.S. Yes, I know I will never change your mind either Cloud, and that is cool too.[/QUOTE]
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