Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by ahearn, Jul 27, 2011.
Well, you got your buying opportunity. Silver's down more than three bucks today.
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This is enough for me to pull the trigger on some of the Australian Lunar silver coins I've been eyeing, but it needs to go down another 10 before I'm backing the truck up.
The USD certainly isn't a "safety net" here in Japan, where it has lost 25% of its value versus the Japanese yen in just the past 3 years.
I believe the USDJPY just hit a multi-decade low as well. This does not inspire confidence in fiat currency for me as the two that are supposedly the strongest right now (Japan and Swiss Franc) are also being deliberately devalued, and Japan just did it's second intervention this year. Precious metals are the safety net.
I don't think it's always that black and white. From what I can gather, the recent yen appreciation happened because Japanese finanial institution are selling foreign [e.g., USA] investments and repatriating the proceeds to fund rebuilding from the recent catastrophe. So the "strength" of the yen is a function of enormous domestic problems. In a sense, the "strength" is due to a shortage of capital, which is hardly a good thing for a nation. Another thought is that the US may go down the same road over the next decade. The dollar may stay stronger than many here expect due to the shortage of capital needed to pay down debt and put folks back to work. The hyperinflation that many expect as inevitable might turn out to be an unexpected deflation instead. It's too soon to tell, but it might be a mistake to dismiss the possibility until there is more evidence.
And yet, Japanese holdings of US Treasuries have actually increased since the disasters.
There's not a shortage of capital in Japan, which has one of the world's highest personal savings rates. Also, the dollar has been sliding downward versus the yen for many years. At one time in 2002, for example, it took more than 123 yen to buy 1 dollar. Three years ago, it was roughly 100 yen per dollar. In February of this year, before the disasters, a dollar could be bought with 80 some-odd yen.
Actually, the dollar reached an all-time post-war low versus the yen just after the disasters. It is close to that now.
Today the Dow is a 11,477 and Gold is $1660, so today it takes 6.9 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. Back in 2001, it took about 40 ounces of Gold to buy the Dow. The price of the Dow in Gold terms has been basically declining for the past 10 years. At the March 2009 Stock Market lows, it took only 6 ounces of Gold to buy the Dow -- so we are approaching that historic low again (at Today's 6.9 ounces of Gold level).
In other words, any stock market gain in the past 10 years has been an illusion, it's really just a measure of how much the dollar has declined. In real (hard) money terms (namely Gold) the Dow has been going down, down, down for a decade.
When all the talking heads on TV talk about how much we have "recovered" since the historic lows set in early 2009, think of this chart and laugh (or cry).
I do not think we will forget this soon.
Europe has had two wars on their soil and tend to be much more interested in gold /silver.
We have been exposed to the financial rubber glove treatment for years.
When gold fell from $700 to $300 in the early 1980s, I certainly didn't see the price-in-dollars of my groceries or my tuition drop by over 50%. And while prices have certainly gone up somewhat in the past 10 years, they sure haven't quintupled as gold has.
Gold isn't "just another" commodity, but it is a commodity, and its value fluctuates. Its value has spiked here of late, much more sharply than the value of the dollar has fallen.
Or, if you insist: the value of gold has remained constant over the last five years, and the value of the dollar has decreased fivefold. But the cost of nearly everything else -- food, housing, gas, clothing -- has tracked closer to the dollar than to gold. That makes gold a poor yardstick of value, IMO.
You are correct, of course. What some people miss is that in ANY free market, the price of everything will fluctuate with changes in supply and demand for them. That includes food, energy, services, gold, silver, paper currencies, haircuts, cars, snowblowers... EVERYTHING. Nothing is exempt, including gold.
http://cgi.ebay.com/260829850741 but based on comments, hesitating.
Welcome to the forum!
A personal good buy price?
I believe that what one buys is a personal choice, based on available relative criteria. I've looked at the auction and the credentials of the seller, and although I've read seemingly disparaging comments, I've yet to see a comparable offer/seller.
It appears that almost 2 thousand individuals have posted their approval of this seller/offerings, I personally would consider that as a significant factor when evaluating the quality of this offering.
I trust that when purchasing, you also consider the quality of evidence provided in a listing, and aren't influenced by naysayers who haven't provided a any/better option.
Personally, all factors considered, I believe you've made a good choice, until someone clearly provides one better.
To answer the query of the OP, I'm currently constantly trying to buy at a premium above the general standard advised in this venue, but am outbid in the majority. I also appreciably sell at a greater price than the majority advise, to many pleased return buyers who recognize a quality offering. I personally consider this evidence that there are many searching for alternatives to the status quo.
Just my humble opinion.
Perhaps the recent highs have already factored in a possible credit downgrade.
On another note, years ago, I read somewhere that an ounce of gold, through recent history, has the buying power of a good men's suit. By this benchmark, the value of gold is somewhat high.
Why would you want to pay $7.00 over spot per coin? Is it that hard to get ASEs? I was at the coin shop on Thursday and they were selling ASE's for $3.50 over spot. I just don't get this logic.
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