Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by ahearn, Jul 27, 2011.
People are still buying gold in my opinion.
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You can also buy locally if there is a coin shop near where you live.
I can't get myself buy at these prices.
Not yet at least.
I guess I need to be conditioned to accept these new higher levels foe some time.
So I can buy later in the year at even higher prices :scratch:
Maybe there's something I should learn there
Hi RaceBannon , thanks for the info. I will check out these sites but I am a little concerned with buying from ebay. Have you purchased any coins from ebay?
I do not see gold , silver, or food commodities going down. They might fluctuate, but on the whole where do you get a store of money ?
China and India have money to buy large amounts of gold ( 3 Trillion in surpluses). They also have a lot of banks that have made loans to enrich the "Party Favorites ".They both need a lot of food. We have run ethanol up to over 40% of our corn production.
Yea I would think we are in a bit of trouble , but others are also not wanting people on the streets venting their spleens about food and random purging of populations.
Random purging of populations? what?
Gold and silver are following the same path as the tech stocks in the 1990s. It will probably end the same way. If you study that period and what people were saying and doing, there is a spooky resemblance. Now, some folks look at that situation and conclude that it proves how dangerous it is buying into a bull market, that all bubbles end badly, etc... But my takeaway is that enormous amounts of money were made by some people who recognized it for what it was and got out reasonably close to the end. The same thing is happening with PMs and the mining stocks. This has been, and continues to be an opportunity to build wealth that only comes around a few times in a lifetime, so it shouldn't be wasted. A lot of people are going to be financially crushed in the end, but a lot will also make and keep enough money to propel their financial lives to a new and higher level that can make a significant difference.
Anyway, it's something to ponder.
I've noticed the same parallel myself. No investment has had a ten-year bull market that has not ended in a blow-off top.
That said, pulling out near the top is very - very -tricky. There's a good chance for a false ending, which will make anyone who pulled out feel really foolish. Bubbles are usually called two to four years early. No lesss an authority than David Dreman called the end of the Internet bubble in early 1998.
By the time it's time to pull out, the thing looks unstoppable. No-one knows how high it will go. Those who know it's a bubble will spend months anxiously looking for the signal that things have gotten too crazy to go on. News that seems nutso in normal times being accepted as gospel, for instance. The Internet sector flashed several of those signals - like Net IPOs with little or even no revenue - all the way through 1999. The bubble didn't pop until March of 2000.
The earlier you get in, the earlier you'll think the market went nuts. I remember a guy who presciently bought a lot of gold around 2001. He decided that the gold market got nutty when the metal topped $1000 in Feb. of '08. He sold out at $850-900 a few months later. Needless to say, he was early. Early in, early out.
It's going to be a nail-biter near the top for those who know what's going on. There's never an easy profit (that you keep.)
Fortunes were lost predicting correctly the dot com bubble burst and the housing bubble burst. It is never enough to be right on the idea, you also have to be right on the timing. The old saying is that the market can be wrong a lot longer than you can remain liquid.
Regarding the notion above about how India and China has all of this money they can buy gold with. Both countries will have MAJOR crisis very shortly. India more than China. In India, over half of their population is under 16. Think about that. IN the next 15 years 700 million more people will need housing, jobs, food, and have their own families. How is a country that is as poor, crowded, and underemployed now going to be able to provide that? The only answer will be higher taxes on the rich, taking away their ability to spend as much on gold. China is aging more rapidly than any country on earth, and in 15 years will have something like 400 million retirees. That is a lot of "free" healthcare for a developing country to provide. Again, I see higher taxes.
Just a couple of things to think about. I do not see really any country on earth so well positioned they can just freely spend most of their wealth on PM. I see some major problems for most countries. We are not alone in spending orgies, most countries have done the same, and those that haven't for the most part have some serious population issues that will also drain disposable cash. You could argue some of the lower population oil exporters, but those have had spare cash for a long time, so its not any new demand on the market.
I've often heard the point that an aging population causes problems, because there are more and sicker retirees for the working population to support. But increased fecundity (more kids) is usually presented as the solution to that problem -- more new workers to support the older.
Now, cramming more people into the same space (and the same food stream) obviously can't go on indefinitely. (That's why I'm skeptical of any political or economic scheme that relies on unending growth.) But those new adults will not only consume jobs, they'll also produce them. More people means more workers needed to feed them, make stuff for them, and clean up after them.
Within reason. Excessive population growth results in extreme poverty usually. The statement about population growth is saying going from 2 children per family to 3 will increase your overall economic growth. Going from 2 to 8 is not the same argument. From 2 to 3 there is adequate social infrastructure to educate and make productive citizens. From 2 to 8 you simply have tens of millions of illiterate children who are a burden to a society, not an asset. Look at almost any developing country with explosive population growth and show me one example of improving standards of living.
Perhaps a better description is people are selling mountains of this stuff. Basically, people are pulling out old junk (90% 10c, 25c, 50c), generic bars and rounds, ASEs, maple leafs, and crummy beatdown Morgan and Peace dollars and selling them, often parlaying that into a deal for a really nice collector coin.
hint hint hint
OK, I'll be more overt...
If you have a load of old "junk" silver, we gladly take that in trade for real coins. It's a great way to trade up to a strong coin for which you don't have cash. We see a lot of that these days. Truly a "win-win" situation.
Anybody know if margins got raised again today? Silver is literally falling like a shooting star right now.
There is a broad sell off around the world towards cash. Mellon bank just increased fees for people with deposits over 50 million, and treasury yields dropped. All over the world today people are selling everything and depositing cash in the bank.
Any idea why the sudden widespread change in sentiment?
What do you think has happened in Egypt , Syria , Libya ,Iraq , Iran, etc . The middle east slaughter, any group who raises an issue of freedom , food , jobs , human rights etc.
How many people have been eliminated in Africa because they want another system of governance ? Call it what you want but loss of life is in excess again ,maybe it has not really stopped on some continents.
What will replace gold and silver as stores of wealth ? Natural resources are problems, being used at rapid rates. Wood has had a respite because of low new housing numbers here. What will it be ? Oil has faded a bit but that will not last long. Oil covers a vast array of products most do not even realize.
It hasn't really been sudden in my mind. The idea that the USD and other world currencies will become worthless and PM will be the only thing left is suspect. There are too many people in the world who can not buy even 1 ounce of gold as a safety, but they can buy 100 USD which will buy them necessities. The USD is the world's safety net still, IMO.
no worse than any other time in history.
Margin calls, in part.
The charts tell a different story at least from a standpoint of sudden change. I'm not complaining though, this could be a great buying opportunity. I never thought I'd be cheering for a drop
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