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<p>[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 5301172, member: 26302"]I am a strong proponent of DCA if only to force investment action and overcome human failings. However, I am always hesitant on CT because the only times we get anyone wishing to DCA in PM is when it has spiked. We had many such posts in 2011-2012. I wonder how many of them actually continued to follow my advice when prices declined considerably. I bet few to none. That is the problem. If you start, (especially in a period they are historically high), you MUST MUST MUST continue for years after in order for DCA to be effective.</p><p><br /></p><p>This is what DCA is trying to prevent, (and it doesn't if you abandon it). </p><p><br /></p><p>1. PM really looks attractive at $1900. Its scary out here in the economy, and I am concerned for my future. Maybe I should buy PM. I am smart though, so I will DCA and not buy all at once.</p><p><br /></p><p>2. PM has eased, economy is doing better, I think PM is going down some more so I will just buy a little. </p><p><br /></p><p>3.. Economy is great. No one talking about pm at all, in fact its down below $1200 today. What a loser, it will go down further. I won't buy any now, knowing I can buy cheaper later.</p><p><br /></p><p>4. Hmm, a economic shock and PM jumped to $1500. Well, I think it will pass and I will remember to buy more when it drops back to $1200</p><p><br /></p><p>5. Major shock, pm spikes to near $2000. Man, it would be a good time to have to PM in case things really turn bad.</p><p><br /></p><p>This is basically 2011-2020. Most people starting in 2011 I am guessing do not own what they wanted to own, and what they do own is way above the average for the period. DCA forces you to buy at $1500 and $1200 when your own mind is talking you out of it. Someone truly doing DCA over this period would own the position they wanted, at maybe a $1400 average. Today that would look good, no?</p><p><br /></p><p>If you are serious, DCA into PM over a decade or longer is a good strategy. I just fear most abandon it when the PM starts to drop.</p><p><br /></p><p>Btw, for those who say PM is not a good investment, I would say to consider this, it is also an insurance program. All of the while, besides economic returns, you also have the security of having a hard asset should you need it. When Venezuela melted down, so did their stock markets. Anyone with 100% stocks in Venezuela had no assets. At least by having silver and gold physically owned that can never happen to my family. </p><p><br /></p><p>Of course stocks historically outperform other asset classes, but can be very risky. I simply prefer to not have all assets in one class, since I never know what could happen. I prefer to own all asset classes, in case only one is worth owning when I need it most.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 5301172, member: 26302"]I am a strong proponent of DCA if only to force investment action and overcome human failings. However, I am always hesitant on CT because the only times we get anyone wishing to DCA in PM is when it has spiked. We had many such posts in 2011-2012. I wonder how many of them actually continued to follow my advice when prices declined considerably. I bet few to none. That is the problem. If you start, (especially in a period they are historically high), you MUST MUST MUST continue for years after in order for DCA to be effective. This is what DCA is trying to prevent, (and it doesn't if you abandon it). 1. PM really looks attractive at $1900. Its scary out here in the economy, and I am concerned for my future. Maybe I should buy PM. I am smart though, so I will DCA and not buy all at once. 2. PM has eased, economy is doing better, I think PM is going down some more so I will just buy a little. 3.. Economy is great. No one talking about pm at all, in fact its down below $1200 today. What a loser, it will go down further. I won't buy any now, knowing I can buy cheaper later. 4. Hmm, a economic shock and PM jumped to $1500. Well, I think it will pass and I will remember to buy more when it drops back to $1200 5. Major shock, pm spikes to near $2000. Man, it would be a good time to have to PM in case things really turn bad. This is basically 2011-2020. Most people starting in 2011 I am guessing do not own what they wanted to own, and what they do own is way above the average for the period. DCA forces you to buy at $1500 and $1200 when your own mind is talking you out of it. Someone truly doing DCA over this period would own the position they wanted, at maybe a $1400 average. Today that would look good, no? If you are serious, DCA into PM over a decade or longer is a good strategy. I just fear most abandon it when the PM starts to drop. Btw, for those who say PM is not a good investment, I would say to consider this, it is also an insurance program. All of the while, besides economic returns, you also have the security of having a hard asset should you need it. When Venezuela melted down, so did their stock markets. Anyone with 100% stocks in Venezuela had no assets. At least by having silver and gold physically owned that can never happen to my family. Of course stocks historically outperform other asset classes, but can be very risky. I simply prefer to not have all assets in one class, since I never know what could happen. I prefer to own all asset classes, in case only one is worth owning when I need it most.[/QUOTE]
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