Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Wandering Man, Sep 17, 2019.
This guy lays out the truth...
Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.
I don't have time to watch this entire YouTube rant right now, but I saw Ben Bernanke's talk. Your "host" is 100% WRONG when he says that BB is "lying through his teeth."
Where is this Fed paper from 2008 ?
And second....what does a Fed paper from mid-2008 have to do with the SYSTEMIC collapse that took place in September when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the lending markets seized up ? Does a State Department memo on Japan in mid-1941 mean as much after December 7th, 1941 ?
This guy is TOTALLY CLUELESS and wants you to believe that he knows more than Bill Gross and the guys at PIMCO. Well, Gross and other wealthy PMs were telling their spouses to go to ATMs and get as much cash as you can get.
The rest of the video basically tries to say that, with the markets imploding and seizing up, that BB changed his opinion on things as markets developed.
What does this guy do for a living ?
So the guy is correct in stating the congressman's numbers were wrong....but the PROBLEM was essentially correct and the banking system would have gone down if the Fed didn't stabilize the markets.
This guy is a con-artist and huckster.
I'm afraid that right there was what we call "friendly fire".
what their reasons are and what their track record is ?
I can show you DOZENS of know-it-alls like that YouTube guy who predicted Doom-And-Gloom and many of them are either dead or sold their businesses after years/decades of failure. Some of them were smart guys....I liked them personally....I even read their stuff to get alternate opinions.....BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, THEY WERE WRONG and if you listened to them it cost you $$$$ !!!!
There's nothing wrong with being wrong, I am wrong LOTS of times. But you have to 'fess up when you are wrong and LEARN from it. These guys predicting the end of civilization as we know it have been saying that for years/decades. At some point, you have to make your clients or people who follow you money....I don't care if you are Howard Ruff or Joe Granville or Charles Allmon (look 'em up if you don't know who I am talking about).
Don't know about that but I do recall for 20 years he and his supporters tried to re-live the 1970's when gold went from $35 to $800 and gold stocks went up 10-fold and 20-fold in a few years.
What they never understood was that it was a once-in-a-lifetime environment (end of Bretton Woods, 35-year bond bear market, flexible exchange rates, double-digit inflation, etc.).
Gold will NEVER take on the importance today that it had back then. Can't.
Education is the key, read lots of books and keep up on the trends, and you will
Any serious student of finance, investing, or the economy should read BARRONS weekly and check out The WSJ daily.
I have 2 close friends that are the same. One is much older and been doing it for 45 years. We have the same discussions. They always say the same thing when times are good and the overall gain is great. Like in 2006 they would say, if you have been in the stock market for the last 50 years you would have made xxxxx dollars had you invested 1000.00 in 1948. That same number was worthless 3 years later.
Now, I would love for the market to be RUNNING true, honest, and not fully deregulated to the point where they have squeezed 70% of the people. I have been saving it seems forever, not for me, but for my kid.
My problem as I see it is I know the Truth ! That todays market is a Faux market created by the FED after the bail out. You can call it what you want. We know facts are out there, that everything is now very very highly valuated.
Dow Jones to GDP
Willshire to GDP
and others are past the elevations of the dot com bubble and the 2008 recession. And in place of a correction to wash out the bad companys, (so many that have 0 or negative earnings) we offer to them the chance to borrow money printed by the FED and to continue that businesses PONZI type scheme. Soon the interest rates will be negative, once negative every BAD business on the DOW and NASDAQ can borrow until they are blue in the face because they will never lose money. Only roll over their bad debt for a larger amount. All of it NEVER DUE in reality. This is a FACT that wont go away.
Why QE was started, why a company like LYFT, UBER, Wework, and many others. https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/investing/stocks-week-ahead-zombie-companies-debt/index.html
In Dec. 2018 the banks ran out... forcing the FED to let things fall as they should have, or, cut rates and plan to print more money. They chose the latter from pressure via whitehouse and billionaires. This does nothing for the working class american. A 3%, or even 10% raise gets you nothing when real inflation http://www.chapwoodindex.com/
Real Inflation is NOT CPI and the news media, FED, or POTUS would never release the real inflation. Real Inflation runs double what you can get for any client. Our brains are manipulated threw a smooth talking FED Chair, the loud mouth leader, the Jim Cramers, and Larry Kudlows. All who live in an alternate reality.
Sure, if you have 1M or 20M and your invested in the SP500 you make money. a FORD TRUCK still cost 80,000.00$ to Cramer, like it does to me. The difference is it is a 1 year salary to me, maybe .001% of his net worth and 1% of his yearly earnings.
What of this image ? https://topforeignstocks.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Gold-Prices-vs.-SP-500-Return-Chart.png
There is a chart that shows GOLD better than the SP 500. I in now way think stocks are a bad investment, but as anyone should know timing is everything. The OLD adage of get in and stay in does not work anymore. It always works when it is UP as it is today. I can also say that we may never go down again, or at least not until a revolution and people are starving. The inequality has gotten way out of hand. You see many billionaires saying the same thing. We have reached a point now where the FED has to inject cash and lower rates to raise the all important MARKET. Everything else be damned as NOT important.
And I certainly do not mean any of my writing in anyway to undermine your ability. Sure you do very well. My point is after living through the dot com, and 2008 I seen them coming and got out. Nothing is great forever. It took almost 6 years for those that lost 50% in 2008 to get their money back. That will happen again at some point in time.
Thanks for the conversation
If this is true why are the Central Banks, all but our buying it ? You cannot print money forever MMT and hope things work out. What is the value of the dollar ? The only reason it works now is because the money goes into so few hands thus inflating their bank accounts. It raises the overall value of property, etc. Just like in 2007 when property was overvalued.
How can a company like UBER with a market cap of 47 BILLION dollars have an EPS of -2.45 have 5 analyst giving it strong buy rating and 17 giving it a buy rating, 12 have a HOLD and zero have SELL ? That is flat out corruption. As are the rating agnecies and so on. Why do they do it ? Because there is ZERO accountability in the market, none !!!!
America is quickly losing its world wide power and soon the dollar will follow. Of course until that day it is UP UP UP... Peter Schiff in 2008 on the Larry Kudlow show via CNBC was laughed at by the several other guest speakers. He was right and they were all wrong. He called it out, he is saying the same thing now only he has support from 20 others, jim rickards, Danielle Dimartino, Lynette Zang, Gordon Long, and many others. Guess what, they have as much if not a lot more experience than anyone here. How can they be right but get no air time on CNBC, FOX, Bloomberg, and other billionaire owned TV stations. I can only wonder
Not books....read BARRONs, The WSJ, Jim Cramer's RealMoney posts, watch CNBC or FBC or Bloomberg TV.
Only listen to people in the business. Do NOT listen to Model Manequins or Lipstick Babes.
I never go back 50 years to show "what if's" about making money in the stock market.
If if I went back in time 20 years and drafted Tom Brady as QB, my team would have 6 Super Bowls !!
But you are wrong !!
The market is not cheap but it is not at bubble territory. If we have a recession it will go down about 25%. We can have panic corrections any time from 5-15% or so, plus an overshoot.
Don't fall for the "bailout" baloney. While some companies are alive today because of low interest rates, ultimately you need to generate profits and cash flow to survive. Low rates buy you time, they don't guarantee your survival.
Ask Sears, Macy's, and other retailers etc if you think low-rates guarantee success. We are going to lose another hundred malls and 20-35% of retail space in the next 20 years.
Those stocks were all overvalued because of private equity. The fact that WeWork had its valuation slashed by 75% -- 75% !!!! -- and it didn't impact the overall market at all is very telling.
There are LOTS of quality stocks that pay dividends of 4-7% yield that sell at 5-15x earnings.
No banking panic happened in December 2018. The market corrected, that's it. Happens all the time. A GLORIOUS buying opportunity -- December 24th, 2018.
Best Christmas present I ever got !!
If you have a problem with the construction of the CPI or hedonics, we can debate that.
But unless you lived through the 1970's, everybody who did KNOWS what double-digit inflation is. And what we have today is NOT 10% inflation, unless you rent in San Francisco or Manhattan.
Car prices have largely been flat. They doubled every 10-12 years from 1950-1980.
You think those were The Good Old Days ??
I collect gold bullion and gold coins (that's why I'm here, right ? ). Anybody INVESTING in gold or collectibles to "save" for retirement is a fool, IMO.
No offense taken, but I have never "done very well" because of others. I have NEVER been paid $100,000 in salary in my life. I never had a job last longer than 3 years. I never had a cushy job with fat bonuses.
Everything I have, I scrapped for.
In the meantime, you have to realize that they don't ask you at the bank if the gains you made in the financial markets were real or not. Whether the market will take them back in 5 or 10 or 25 or 50 years. If the market is overvalued and going up on Hot Air or Fed printing, if it doubles, and you make $$$, they don't take the gains back.
Remember This: It took the Socialist economy of Greece about 30 years to implode. Greece was a small economy, tied to the Euro, largely tourist and export-driven. How long do you think even similar mismanagement of the U.S. economy will show up and sink a global financial reserve currency superpower that has multiple and diverse economic drivers (exports, services, manufacturing, finance, etc.)? If I have to bet on 30 or 300 years to sink us, I'll be the latter.
You and I will be LONG gone, trust me.
In the meantime, make some $$$ and stop worrying.
If you'd put 1000 dollars into the S&P 500 in January 1948, you would've had almost $100K in January 2007 -- without dividend reinvestment. If you'd reinvested dividends as you went along (or just picked a fund that did so), you would've had over $780K.
If you'd let it ride until January 2009, you would've fallen back to about $58K without DRIP, $495K with. That's about a 40% haircut over those two years. (In fact, you would've seen about the same from January 2008 to January 2009.)
If you'd let it ride until January 2010, you would've come back to $75K without DRIP, $660K with. That three-year period you called out covered a drop of less than 25%.
Oh, and if you'd let it ride until 2014, six years after the 2008 crash? $122K without drip, almost $1.2 million with.
The lessons here, for those willing to hear them:
1) The market as a whole does not go to zero, even if individual stocks do. "Worthless" isn't just an exaggeration, it's flat-out false.
2) The market recovers from crashes. If you don't sell at the bottom (by choice or necessity), you don't have to lose anything. My 401(k) balance tanked by over 40% at the bottom of the 2008 crash, but I didn't "lose" a penny, because it recovered all that value and then some. I wasn't a retiree facing forced distributions, I wasn't leveraged and vulnerable to margin calls, and I didn't panic.
3) Investments with returns (dividends) stomp the you-know-what out of investments that can only appreciate or depreciate in their price.
And just as a reminder, PMs don't yield interest or dividends.
that chart of the S&P 500 vs. Gold is what we call Cherry Picking.
The starting period is close to a bubble peak for the S&P 500 when it would sell at 25x forward earnings in a few months. And gold was depressed, still burning off the excesses of 2 decades earlier. So the comparision is flawed, if not laughable, the kind of thing you see at 4 AM infomercials from the folks looking to sell you a $50 Morgan Silver Dollar for $119 and a common Saint-Gaudens for $2,000.
ROLLING PERIODs are un-biased and no 10 or 20 or 30 year rolling periods will EVER show gold beating the stock market a majority of periods. In fact, I doubt it would beat it in 10% of the time periods, probably less.
If you think the markets are WRONG....then SHORT them. Bet against them and put your money where your mouth is. Or your posts are.
That's the ultimate conviction, right ?
I think UBER is a broken model. Never believed the private equity valuation. Thought the stock was worth $15 a share on Day 1.
But it has nothing to do with accountability or a broken market, it is what people are willing to pay right now.
Was Amazon.com overvalued when it was worth $80 billion in 2000 ? How about in 2002 when it was worth $8 billion ? How about today when it is worth $1 trillion ?
Maybe because they DO get airtime -- especially Danielle (who I have worked with) -- and because their performances do not match up with others ?
I like Peter Schiff but he has been DEAD WRONG on lots of things and his money management returns show it. He was predicting $5,000 gold back in 2012 -- how did that turn out ?
This is for Wandering man - they person who originally asked a question of the board.
Before the thread was hijacked, there were a lot of great comments. The mint is trying to make money and accordingly, they add lot of vigorish to their prices. This makes it nigh impossible to make a profit in any sort of reasonable time frame. Alas, they're almost as bad as the people selling coins on TV. They're normally ~50% over retail when they sell them which means your grandkids might break even.
I buy mint issue stuff for my grandkids. Been doing it since they were born. Will they make a lot of profit if and when they sell? Probably not. Will it be a good form of investment for college to balance out a 529 and savings. Probably.
Now, if you're going to collect coins - pick a series you like and you'll probably want to stay with slabbed coins. Takes a lot of the guess work out of buying and selling.
If you're going to invest in pm's, you want to minimize the premium vs. maintaining fungibility. For example, you can buy junk silver bars and rounds for pretty close to spot price . . . but they're a bitch to sell because they're junk. Now if you pay a bit more of a premium for an ASE, you can sell that it McDonalds.
Now I realize that some will take exception with 'investing in pm's'. That OK. From a allocation of wealth perspective, I believe everyone should have a stash of pm's as a Core holding - say 5-10%. More than that is speculation and not an investment. Speculation is fine, but you must recognize it as such and act accordingly. And just for a bit of background, I love to speculate in the PM's and am doing so right now with junior silver mining stocks - the penny stocks. They're a complete nose bleed trip but that's where the serious action is because of leverage.
And most of all, HAVE FUN and enjoy it. It's been a glorious hobby for me for over 60 years. The history, the beauty, the 'store of value'. I say store of value because as a boy I collected most everything known to a kid - baseball cards, stamps, rocks, coins, bugs, all of it. Early on I realized that of all of those things, I could always simply cash in the coins because if nothing else, they were money.
and so it goes,
"pm's"? What are PM's?
I recently had someone suggest I try buying older gold coins, like $1 and $5, if I could afford it. Would you recommend only buying these as slabbed and graded coins?
Separate names with a comma.