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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1267735, member: 3011"]If you believe gold is a better investment than stocks at these prices, or over the long run, then by all means put your money into gold. I would just caution you that the charts you are using do not reflect the relative compound total rates of return generated by stocks vs. gold in the past, or what might be expected in the future. They also ignore dividend income and the effect of reinvesting a growing dividend income stream, which has accounted for about 40% of the total return for the DJIA over time. If you don't have that information, your analysis is incomplete at best. Most value investors would look at the fact that stocks have not performed well over the past decade and decide they would rather own stocks at current depressed levels than gold at 6X the decade ago price. I'm not arguing against gold. Since December 2003 I've had a significant part of my equity portfolio invested in gold related investments. But at current levels I'm finding stocks that I like better than gold, and I've begun to shift money out of gold and into stocks. I know there are some new PM investors currently putting new money into gold and silver. In my opinion [which may be right or wrong], they are taking enormous risks. And using charts that end with record high prices for gold to validate a pro gold stances might turn out to be far more dangerous than the pro gold crowd can imagine. Good luck.</p><p><br /></p><p>Edit: Let me just add one more thought. Regardless of the long term averages, gold has only been a good investment for two time periods -- the 1970s and the past decade. Over every other time period, stocks or bonds or a combination of the two has been better. So now that gold has had a big run, the probability that it will have another big run over the next decade has greatly diminshed.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1267735, member: 3011"]If you believe gold is a better investment than stocks at these prices, or over the long run, then by all means put your money into gold. I would just caution you that the charts you are using do not reflect the relative compound total rates of return generated by stocks vs. gold in the past, or what might be expected in the future. They also ignore dividend income and the effect of reinvesting a growing dividend income stream, which has accounted for about 40% of the total return for the DJIA over time. If you don't have that information, your analysis is incomplete at best. Most value investors would look at the fact that stocks have not performed well over the past decade and decide they would rather own stocks at current depressed levels than gold at 6X the decade ago price. I'm not arguing against gold. Since December 2003 I've had a significant part of my equity portfolio invested in gold related investments. But at current levels I'm finding stocks that I like better than gold, and I've begun to shift money out of gold and into stocks. I know there are some new PM investors currently putting new money into gold and silver. In my opinion [which may be right or wrong], they are taking enormous risks. And using charts that end with record high prices for gold to validate a pro gold stances might turn out to be far more dangerous than the pro gold crowd can imagine. Good luck. Edit: Let me just add one more thought. Regardless of the long term averages, gold has only been a good investment for two time periods -- the 1970s and the past decade. Over every other time period, stocks or bonds or a combination of the two has been better. So now that gold has had a big run, the probability that it will have another big run over the next decade has greatly diminshed.[/QUOTE]
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