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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Cloudsweeper99, post: 1363975, member: 3011&quot;]Gold is already substantially higher than the total cost of production, and that would indicate to me that it has probably caught up to the inflation that occurred while it languished in a 20 year bear market.&nbsp; It&#039;s a different creature than a bond.&nbsp; I think bonds are very overvalued.&nbsp; While there is no reason why gold can&#039;t continue to rise for 20 more years, the odds are heavily against that sort of bet.&nbsp; There are always good reasons for a bull market.&nbsp; The reasons for its end are rarely apparent until well after it ends.&nbsp; Don&#039;t get me wrong.&nbsp; I like gold, own it, and believe that the probability of substantial gain ahead outweighs the probability of loss [otherwise I wouldn&#039;t own it].&nbsp; This might occur in the form of a blow-off top similar to NASDAQ in 1999.&nbsp; But when people come in here and say things like &quot;Is this the time to buy gold? I&#039;m planning on loading up and holding for retirement in a few decades,&quot; it is irresponsible to encourage those folks.&nbsp; They need to understand the downside, and there is substantial downside risk for a long term investor.&nbsp; I suppose it is possible that the US will have a currency crisis, but I also believe that most people way underestimate the Federal Reserve and US Treasury ability to manage the currency -- so it seems to be a very low probability bet to me.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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