If you really are going long term -- BUY GOLD NOT SILVER

First this is JMO of course like everything everyone posts is JO. Anyways it seems most of the board consensus is Silver is the long term buy which only makes sense. Silver is $17 and Gold is $1225 so of course there is going to be more people with silver than with gold.

But anyways I believe that history shows that long term gold is the better hold. Of course anyone can cherry pick spots to make their point look right but if we look at the ENTIRE GSR charts over the last 50 years ( where the prices have moved somewhat freely ) we see that the GSR pretty much goes in one direction - UPWARD. Now yes you can cherry pick a spot where it went down, of course but I am talking about over the entire 50 years. It started at 16 went up to 30 and kept going up.

I hear silver siders often say the GSR will fall back to 5 or 7 ( I have even heard them claim lower ) but seriously how can anyone really believe it will ever fall back below 40 ?
When I really got into buying PM's the GSR was 45 or 50 and they claimed anyday now it will be single digits. Then I watched it go to 55 then to 60 then to 65 now over 70. The trajectory seems clear. And this isn't a 2 or 3 month trajectory. Its 50 years !!!!

Now Im not saying silver cant have a good run and get back down to 62 or 65. I seriously doubt it, but it could happen. But anything below 55 -58. Nope. I believe in the next 15-20 years the GSR will be over 100 and the silver side will be dreaming of 71.

Now if youre a flipper who can buy today at $17.50 and sell tomorrow at $19 then that's a different story. That's someone who is working their butt off to make a quick couple bucks. Nothing wrong with that but that's not what I am talking about here. I am talking about those buying looking for long term hold. IMO Gold is the play not silver. The whole world respects Gold, silver not so much.

Im just saying ur better off to hold off and save up until you can buy gold. Even the 1/10 AGEs can be had at a 6-7% premium which is horrible for gold but really good for silver. That's equivalent to paying $18.50 an ounce when spot is $17.40 like now. (6%). Silver premiums are too high which is another good reason to be gold. Its quality not quantity.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

most people can't afford gold.

 

If you do the math on silver and gold over the last year, you might see it differently.

Gold went ~35% between the lowest and highest points this year ~1050 - $1390

Silver went from ~12 to $21 making it close to an 80% gain in that same time period.

Silver holding at $16 and gold at $1220 makes silver a better investment in the last year - assuming you held. Even better if you sold this summer.

I don't look at either as better than the other. Like any investment, there's trade-offs. Finding your own opportunity and knowing the trade-offs is where you make successful investments.

Now, that doesn't mean gold won't outshine silver at some point, but the smart bet is to play both conservatively and look for opportunities.

 

Brett I looked at pmbull for historic prices and last november silver closed between $14.45 to $15.42 and the GSR averaged 69.77 during november 2015. It has currently increased to 72.61. So over the last year gold has been the winner.

Silver never came close to $12 last november but as I said in the OP yes you can cherry pick spots. Im looking at the last 50 years starting back when GSR was a forced 16 to 1. Its pretty clear which way market forces have moved the GSR. Toward gold not silver. Thats a long term 50 year time period im looking at so I see no reason to believe over the next 50 years it will do a 180. I fully expect, in time the GSR Will be triple digits. It may not be a straight line as it never is but you wont see the GSR falling much.

And like I said I am talking about long term holders here. Not those who seem to always back the truck up and sell at the perfectly right time. The internet is loaded with a billion people who always have perfect timing but never tell until after the fact when everyone knows which way spot went. Timing the market is just an internet fantasy and the best chance to win is long term hold. Im just saying if someone is planning to do it that way I would forgo the desire to have a lot and go with quality - gold.

 

Silvers lowest closing price last couple of years was $13.79

 

Ok I forget when it was, but silver was down around $12, and I think it broke down to 11 at some point in the last two years.

And it went up to $21 this summer before the pullback.

By my math, that's at least a 75% increase. Even at $14 to $21, that's a 50% increase.

Gold went from $1050 to $1350, and that's a 30% increase. And yes you can cherry pick your dates, but given the option to cherry pick my dates, I can easily prove out that silver outran gold pretty solidly for the last year or two.

And I've bought and sold both with no prejudice. But your hard set emphasis to buy gold because it's better is not only just a prediction, but short term historic trends show it's wrong.

So...yeah, uhm...whatever. I'll stick to my game plan. Have a nice day!

 

So are you saying that you plan on holding on to gold for total of at least 100 years ?

Personally, I'm a tad late to be thinking that long term.
Plus looking at other investments may be more appealing if buy and sit for that term.

 

You forgot to add into your mathematical model the name of the OP ... "GoldCollector", which shows a slight bias towards gold.

I would love to buy Gold. But as shown above, the profit on same OZ of Silver is more than Gold based on one's lifespan, or a short term. Plus as a collector myself, even though I love gold, I can buy more of the silver shiney stuff and more US coins etc are made out of it.

 

It's been 3.5 years now. Gold is UP over $500, Silver is actually DOWN.

 

GSR 102