If you don't Silver Stack you will be left behind

Doesn't that make you complicit? While the market does "always" recover, how well did that work out after the 1929 crash? How many people lost everything because of the over extension of credit, leverage and then slow recovery? History usually repeats itself, and my belief is some or a few of the symptoms were treated, but the cancer is still there and growing. My guess is the next meltdown is going to make the 2008 fiasco look like a picnic that some ants crashed, the next one will be a tornado that comes from nowhere and there will be no time to react, see 1929. Then what?

 

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Folks lost everything in '29 mostly because of high leverage and lack of a balanced portfolio. Precautions must be taken. The folks who followed sound investment principles recovered. Please remember, I am in no way recommending an ALL -IN philosophy with equities. Just as I believe ALL-IN with metals is stupid, I feel the same with equities.

As far as the next downturn being much worse than 2008, well, no one knows for certain, but the odds are against that and I always find playing the odds usually works out. Also remember, as bad as 2008 was for equities, it was still not as bad as holding Silver when it plummeted from near $50 to $16. So what if THAT happens again???? There are just no guarantees. They best you can do is look at the odds, take your best shot, pay your money and take your chances

 

Why are the odds against a down turn that is worse (or even the same) as the one in 2008 @mikem2000 ? Are smarter people running the monkey show now?

 

How can you state the odds are against that? I'd say the odds are pretty good that it'll be worse, because you know as well as I do nothing has changed except the extra capital that has been poured in.

What if it does? Right now people buying at $17 or $18 or even $20/oz are taking about the same risk as you are. Using the DOW, from 14k to 7k and now 18k, you can tell me that's not comparable? It might not be when you use $50, but it certainly is when using $20...

One final thought, isn't there an approximate 7 year cycle of corrections in the stock market? Hmmm...end of 2008, and we're at mid 2015... this is me telling you that you should probably be more concerned with yourself and the stock market than a few gnats pushing metals. I somehow find it highly hypocritical to rail against metals and push stocks and equities. I'm pretty sure many more people have been fleeced in the markets you're pushing than in the PM markets. Just a thought...

 

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Well, since you asked, the first reason is historical records. There have been many "crashes" in the past and they will continue in the future. Some were mild, some were severe. In 2008, that was particularly bad and that happened right on the heels of the technology bubble bursting in 2000. Now historically, the more severe ones are spread out a bit, so if you believe in being a student of history, we are most likely looking at less severe crashes in the near future.. Huge crashes are just not that common, so the odds are not in favor of another 2008 style downturn.

Now there is some logic to why the more severe downturns are spread out a bit and that is fear. Many folks still have very painful memories of 2000 and 2008, and that puts a bit of a lid on the market. In 2000, there were so many folks in the market, you could not go anywhere without hearing talk about the latest hot stock, or how the markets are rocketing. Good old easy Al was right about irrational exuberance. The masses really drove the valuations to unsustainable levels. Now in current time, since there is still so much fear, that scenario of irrational exhuberance is much less likely to play out as many many folks are still too timid to enter the water. Many players also lock in profits as soon as there is a bit of a rally. You can see that in the day to day activity of the market. As soon as we start approaching new highs, you see the pullback. That is just the way I like it as it keeps things less volatile. It also minimizes the chances of the market getting out of control and setting up for a MASSIVE pullback.

Now, you might say the markets are ALREADY out of control, but I would have to disagree with that. When you look at the market, the current levels were driven by valuation. We are trading at a 15 multiple which is only slightly higher that historical averages. A tad bit expensive???? Maybe.... But no where close to levels where a massive pullback would be justified.

For your final point of if smarter people are in charge now. I really ask this question to you. In times in the past, were the people smarter or less greedy then????? I truly doubt it, so that is really a non-starter.

Does all this guarantee anything???? Nope not at all, but we were not talking about guarantees, just the odds. As I said, I believe in playing the odds and throwing some diversification into the mix to cover your butt. In addition if the unexpected happens , I am still playing the odds for a full recovery, A full recovery is something that has happened 100% of the time, NO exceptions. So once again, the odds are in my favor.

That is how I have always done it and it has worked out well for over 35 years of investing. Now Longnine, how about being brutally honest. How has your method worked for you????

Mike

 

Mike, I would have to defend Longnine if he decides to not answer about his own personal finances or possessions as I would any other member if they declined to answer, And that they do not should not be use in argument.

Jim

 

You can read my above post to Longnine about the odds being against another 2008 style pullback, that about covers it

As far as the extra capital, there should always be an expanding money base. It is needed. I have posted before that even when on the Gold standard, the money base grows as more Gold was mined. Folks can argue all day long on the correct amount to grow the money base, but make no mistake about, some level is healthy for a growing economy.

For you second point, you now seem to be talking about EQUAL risk with your statement about the two being comparable. Well if the downside risks are compareable, why would you pick the asset class with the much LOWER upside potential. Sorry, but that just defies logic and common sense.

For your statement about 7 years cycles, that really matters little as we all know, an equities downturn will come, it is just a matter of time, but we don't know when. The only thing
I said is the odds are the next one will not be as severe as 2008. I stand by that statement and have posted in detail, why that is my belief.

Finally, I don't find my posts hypocritical at all. I am not sure why you do. Please expand your logic so I can defend my position. I mean wasn't I correct over the last five years???. A winning strategy is just that and anyone who has been aligned with my logic and strategy is financially better off today, so please don't compare that with the folks posting losing strategies. Also, I do not push stocks. My recommendations have always been an aggressive balanced portfolio, which can even include metals if the valuations justify which at this time they do not.

 

No issues Jim, it was really meant for Longline to answer in his own mind, not to publicly post his financial situation. it should have been worded differently.

 

Thanks

 

As I've stated numerous times, I chose not to play in stocks, equities and any other games in a market that I believe is controlled by the biggest bunch of criminals in the world.

Hypocritical, as you constantly warn of the risks in metals while propping up equities as if there is no risk involved with them. Passing off your advice as if it's fail proof and steering people to what you do. Basically, we're all hypocrites, it's just a matter of where and how we ply that.

 

For you first point I really need to call total Shenanigans here. I mean aren't mining companies run by the Wall Street boys???? So you have no problem buying their products putting money in their pockets, but are too moral to buy the stocks from the same company. C'mon. In addition, haven't you heard about the mining atrocities?????. Sorry, but you can claim no moral high ground for buying silver. My guess would be you are just trying to justify your failure to capitalize on the equities market. If you feel diffently please defend your point, but I don't think you have a leg to stand on.


For the second point, please show me where I ever said there is no risk. That dog doesn't hunt. There is plenty of risk, and I have always talked about diversification to mitigate those risks. I just stated that no more than two posts ago. C'mon Peace, I don't mind you arguing, but don't be making stuff up.

 

Wrong, flat out wrong. Buying the products does not give them the ability to take the capital and use it 10X. I'm taking that product and the capital out of the fractional system. I can't save it as cash and not be penalized, but I can keep it stagnant if I choose to do so.

I didn't make anything up. It's a fact that you come to a bullion investing forum and constantly rail against investing in bullion. You cannot deny that, it's in every one of your posts. You also rail against the PM pushers, but in your post above you talk about the diversity in your portfolio and capitalizing on the equity markets, while stuffing that market with your cash. It is hypocritical, you say you don't push anything, yet you rail against PMs and suggest the equity markets as a better alternative. One day it might get through to you that giving money to the stock market and the rest of those involved in the largest criminal enterprise on the planet is not everyone's cup of tea.

 

Sorry again, but still Shenanigans, if folks didn't buy their products, they would not even have shares to sell. Think about that. So if you really want to hurt them, stop buying their product. It starts with you. I also noticed you didn't even touch on the mining atrocities. How do you justify that morally?

Actually I don't rail against investing in Bullion. I rail against holding physical silver at this valuation level. If you followed all the posts, you would know I have owned Gold in the past and sold it. You should also remember when I opened my short position in Silver and when I closed. I got news for you, THAT is bullion inventing. I may also buy metals in the future, if the valuation levels start to look attractive, but they do not at this time. Make no mistake about it I am a metals investor. I just don't solely invest in metals and at this point in time I have no position. I am not a Stacker which is obvious, but the name of this forum is Bullion Investing , NOT "Stackers R Us" or the Silver cheerleaders.

 

Ok, as I stated previously, you're welcome to do with your capital what you wish just as much as I'm welcome to with mine as I please. That's fine by me.

If folks didn't buy their products is total mularkey. Silver is also used as an industrial metal, so it will continued to be mined if there are no stackers, commodity speculators or anyone else playing the game.

I'm all good with my positions and stances I've taken, that's what counts to me.

 

Well we can all do as we wish but the difference is you were trying to make some moral statement that just doesn't exist. Yeah, it's true, that you NOT buying silver won't make a difference but the opposite is true also. If I buy equities, that makes no difference either. We are but specs of dust. You justification was on principles , and if you are committed to your should follow though and I have shown you that purchasing silver without question is on the exact same moral plain as purchasing equities. If you are not willing to stand on your principles, then I see no reason to even bring it up if your your response is "Yeah, who cares, it doesn't make a difference anyway."

That would be game set and match. You're out of there kid....

 

Mike:
Historically the stock market was a leading indicator for the economy. When it crashed the retards and parasites were sweep away from wallstreet and mainstreet. The exact opposite happened in 2008 and you know it-parasites welcomed, bring a friend.

Was it last year mike when I upset everyone by calling the economy a backed up crapper with the lid thrown down on it? I haven't changed my belief on that at all. But we can call it the poo poo machine if you like.

 

Wrong again. I don't play in what I believe is the largest criminal organization in the world. I never said anything about how horrible mining companies are, you did. I do what I see is best for me and what I believe in. It's ok for you to make as many leaps as you need to see fault in what I do, that's up to you. If you're trying to win the internet, you might want to find a new hobby, there are no winners.

 

I'll point out my last line in this post to you. I know that I am a hypocrite, I believe we all are.

 

You asked me AGAIN to be brutally honest. How has my method work?

Once again I answer:

It's all over priced crapulous crapola to me. It's like eating junk food. If I'm going to do that, it's going to be the junk food that I like. If you want to call that a method, then that is what it is for now.

On at least two occasions you said you trade against silver. And yet here you trying to save the very people who in part represent what your trading against. How is that method working out for you Mike?