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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1597339, member: 41665&quot;]Personally I don&#039;t think hasty buys @ $30. are &quot;best price&quot; but each to his/her own. I&#039;m guessing we <i>probably </i>see POS USD$25. and <i>maybe </i>as low as $22. by April 2013. Just my guess, here.</p><p><br /></p><p>otoh, Silver @ $20. would be a -59% decline from the POS 4/28/11 and -52% from the April 2011 avg POS. (Skip the High-High, calc off the monthly avg.) That decline is really not as extraordinary as it would appear w/ stocks (historically, a Bull Mkt in stocks ends with a -25% decline; NOT SO FOR PMs) ; the simple &#039;Down 25%&#039; metric doesn&#039;t work here!</p><p><br /></p><p>So how often has POS retraced ~-50% without ending a PM Bull? </p><p><br /></p><p>1) In 2008 Silver fell ~54% in 7 months (3/14/08-10/24/08) </p><p>2) and then again, -50% in 2011. <a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/chart_of_the_day/2011/12/02/Silver_Consolidates_After_50_decline.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/chart_of_the_day/2011/12/02/Silver_Consolidates_After_50_decline.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/education/trading_tips/chart_of_the_day/2011/12/02/Silver_Consolidates_After_50_decline.html</a></p><p>3) (There may be additional examples in the 1960/70s, too. I&#039;ll have to check my old work, later.) </p><p><br /></p><p>These are just the facts, downside risk that EVERYONE &quot;investing&quot; w/ Silver should already know &amp; accept. <b>If a 50% POS retrace has already happened twice in this Bull Market, it CAN happen again</b>.... with the PM Bull Market, intact. Nervous nellies take heed LOL</p><p><br /></p><p>So when do the alarm bells <i>really </i>start ringing? On the charts, by-the-numbers and today: <b>Under $19. </b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b></b>And <b>what is the (unique?) historical precedent for Silver dropping &gt;-55% in 5-6 months?</b> </p><p>Yes, that extraordinary March 1980 event, a -64% Crash: 1/21/80: POS $42.08 &gt;&gt; 7/21/80: POS $15.35 </p><p><br /></p><p>The collapse of the Hunt Bros.&#039; cornered market shows how complex that so-called &quot;Bubble&quot; was: <a href="http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361">http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361</a></p><p>This is <i>nothing </i>like &#039;Silver Thursday&#039; but it&#039;s also worth reviewing that historical event:</p><p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday</a>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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