How will gold play out in 2018?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by ilmcoins, Jan 12, 2018.

  1. ilmcoins

    ilmcoins Well-Known Member

    We are at $1330 today after seeing some nice recent gains. What will spot be on 12/31/18? Do you agree with many of the bankers/wall street guys and think it will end at around $1400? Or are you with the minority groups that are looking for a pullback to $1000 or even gains to $2000?
     
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  3. rickmp

    rickmp Frequently flatulent.

  4. ilmcoins

    ilmcoins Well-Known Member

    It is ok to be wrong Rick! Crystal balls are not always right!
     
  5. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    I predict the gold to dollar ratio will end somewhere in the four-digit range and that the silver to gold ratio will be somewhere between 50 and 90. The only ones who can be more exact that that are those who are doing the manipulation.
     
    imrich, Au H2O and montynj3417 like this.
  6. Victor

    Victor Coin Collector

    Of course a question like this will invite sarcastic replies.
    All I can say is gold is overdue for an uptrend.
     
  7. ilmcoins

    ilmcoins Well-Known Member

    It sure will. We all know that gold could do a wide range of things in 2018. I was hoping to see if there was a general consensus among the users here, but, instead I will probably end up with a bunch of unrelated photos and generalized comments. Oh well, not every thread can have intelligent comments and worthwhile info. I will just post a GTG next time. Haha
     
    Dynoking likes this.
  8. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball Cannot Re-Member

    The PM merchants who want to buy your gold will predict a drop in price. So, you should sell to them before you lose too much.

    The PM merchants who want to sell their gold will predict an increase in price. So, you should buy from them before increases occur.

    Chris
     
  9. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

  10. losthomer

    losthomer Active Member

    There is nothing pushing investors to the "safety of gold" at the moment. When the bulk of the short term benefits from the tax bill are played out and companies actually have to produce and sell something to increase revenue then maybe there will be more demand.
     
    Dynoking likes this.
  11. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    To get intelligent comments you need an intelligent question. A question for which no one here can possibly know the answer is not really that. As I said, "The only ones who can be more exact that that are those who are doing the manipulation." is probably about as exact as you can expect.
     
    Dynoking likes this.
  12. ilmcoins

    ilmcoins Well-Known Member

    I was asking for predictions. Under your line of reasoning, why should anyone even consider buying a company's stock? Who knows where anything will be in 12 months? Obviously you dont so why even participate in this thread? Have the young collectors not posted anything on CT today leaving you with no one to bully?
     
    LA_Geezer likes this.
  13. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    Actually a company's stock is one thing. PM is another.
    For stocks you can see what the revenue is, total expenses are. Competitors. Pricing pressures based on market conditions for products. Regulatory issues, whether insiders are buying or selling. Market acceptance of products, future marketing plans for expansion/growth, Earnings per Share and Employee, Profit per Employee/Share, etc etc etc.

    For PMs you can .... well. Figure out whether people like the shiny stuff.
    Develop mathematical algorithms to determine it's correlation to the US Dollar index, Euro/Yuan/Loonie/etc currency indexes, oil price variations (global + US Shale) .. then determine each individuals factors that affect those, etc. Then find more items that can affect PM pricing whether political, new minings, or less mines, etc.

    Much harder to determine. And then why does it vary so much during the day?
    Loads 'O Fun
     
  14. juris klavins

    juris klavins Well-Known Member

  15. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    Stocks are very different and do not follow the same rules. Take a look at, for example, the one year chart for Apple paying attention to the 100 day EMA, 50 day EMA, and OBV. Then do the same for SLV. Sure, you can find stocks with charts like SLV, but those are the ones to avoid.
     
  16. ilmcoins

    ilmcoins Well-Known Member

    You make stock picking sound easy. Didn't Buffet just win that bet where the top active money managers could not outperform the S&P over 10 years? I wonder if those guys knew how to calculate p/e ratios? This thread has obviously gone off track. Time to move on...
     
  17. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    No.
    Stock picking is not easy. First of all you have to remove emotions and biases (which many don't do with PMs or stocks).

    But you can at least calculate out and developing trending analysis based on factual data. That doesn't exist for PMs.

    For instance I have a list of stocks that I follow that may be up and coming.
    Last year one looked like it was getting ready to move up as it broke above $10. They were getting market share, expanding their markets, etc etc. thus increasing their Revenues and Profits. So I started heavily buying in at $15 /share. They're above $40 now and they are continuing to expand markets, etc. It's a hold for the foreseeable future. They may even be bought out which normally brings a 40% premium.

    If I pick a stock and it retreats 7% I sell. Period, with few exceptions. Sell it to preserve cash. The cost of entry/exit is just a click of a button and a few dollars for hundreds of shares. Can't say that with PMs.

    With PMs though you don't get class action law suits, shady accounting practices, refiling quarterly results, etc. (Valeant, GoPro, Lumber Liquidators for examples) So PMs have an upside with less risk.


    FYI, this is a bit more accurate on the bet he made .. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/war...on-from-a-bet-that-he-made-ten-years-ago.html

    but properly selected types of index funds can outperform S&P. But if you have more aggressive funds, then in a downturn then can lose more than the s&p 500. but maybe lose less than the s&p 100 or 50.

    I think all of most my index funds have outperformed s&p 500 easily as I also have $$ into a s&p 500 funds so I have an easy comparison (21.79% for my s&p500 vs my lowest other fund at 21.68% up to 32.94% @1yr). And there were even more aggressive higher returns specialty funds out there too but I don't like the risks as you have to pull them out when they peak.

    Individual stocks is different though from any type of Stock Fund. A stock fund is a mix of stocks, whereas an individual stock stands on it's own.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2018
  18. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    Buffet and the fund managers have a completely different situation. We could put all our money into a small number of stocks and not affect the market. People who manage billions cannot do they without moving the market so they have to widely diversify. I never put more than about 5% of my portfolio in a single stock but if I had billions to invest then 5% would definitely be difficult to do at one time. Also, my goals are probably different from that of a fund manager in that if PMs were to have a negative correlation to the stock market then by having some PMs I preserve my wealth regardless of direction.
     
  19. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Regarding the OP's question, I think the key for 2018 will be USD versus world currencies and other asian countries response to crypto currencies. If the USD continues to weaken that will increase gold, and if more asian countries ban cryptocutrencies that will increase gold demand. Of course a major strike or gold mine accident can spike gold short term.

    Long term anything can happen. That is the best I got. Overall I am a little bearish on gold given how strongly consumer preferences in the west has moved lately to PT for jewelry.
     
  20. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    As far as stocks go, I only own two that do not pay a dividend. If I have to wait a while to see whether a stock will appreciate in value, I like to be paid for the wait.
     
    Danjohnson and Bman33 like this.
  21. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    Two-thirds the stocks I hold pay a dividend of at least 10% of my purchase price. They others are speculative and performing well.
     
    Santinidollar likes this.
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