How will Fighting in Iran affect Metals?

I git that… however Interest is #4 on that hierarchy at 1T, with low interest rates. I was decently paid throughout my career, paying in deeply (the maximum) for the ‘entitlements’ of SS 1.6T and Medicare 1.9T I paid for and deserve them. Military is being pushed for 1.5T… up from 1T.

I understand why gold is high, and why other nations are looking to gold as a reserve currency. I am not so sure a long term continuance of support for the bond market will be there. China is amassing gold beyond what is reported. Separate banking clearings outside of the Swift / Fed system is arising. Is it possible we have our Western financial heads in the sand? Are we becoming a closed echo chamber of the shrinking Western World?

We all need to remember, albeit we are a major economy, that there are other major economies in the world. China is number 2.

These comments have nothing to do with politics, rather I am probing the financial underpinnings driving gold and silver prices.

 

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I asked ChatGPT what percentage of the U.S. national debt is based on (1) wars and (2) broader military spending. I got 20 and 40 percent, respectively (roughly). So military spending has made up a large percentage - certainly not all - of the national debt*. Also, I'm not so sure military spending or wars can be thought as one-offs - it requires continuous feeding to replenish stocks and equipment, and provide manpower throughout the world; and often there's an occupation long after the war is over. But at the same time, I recognize that this show of force gives the U.S. dollar global reserve currency status, which is why American men can seem attractive to foreign women when traveling abroad - ha, I'll stop while I'm here.

*If you had invested in Lockheed Martin (the top U.S. weapons manufacturer) over the last few decades, you'd have made a lot. Then again, this might conflict with the ethics of some - I myself would not feel great about this.

 

The U.S has technology to keep the strait open, this should be a top priority, I paid almost $4.00 a gallon on my wifes car this morning nearly a .50 cent jump in two days !! and as war continues prices are only going to get worse. if it takes putting boots on the ground so be it.

 

I hope this can be resolved quickly. To be fair, some of my predictions have been spectacularly wrong. I'm buying more PMs as I write - loading up on Mercury dimes right now. I don't want the American people or anyone else to suffer. We'll wait and see.

 

Whose boots should go on the ground, exactly, to save you fifty cents a gallon on gas?

 

I wonder if we should inverse the age requirement pyramid: let the 18-21 yo boots-on-the ground people work our industries, farms, and our open jobs; let 40-50 yo people who have families and life experience, run the businesses and the government (rethink this oldest average government in US history), and let the big-mouth 70-80 yo’s running all the governments go out and live their words by being the boots on the ground.

I am 67… just my thoughts to improve precious metal prices…

 

Lean to up for hedge assets and down for stocks because of the 3-day weekend.

 

Most of that is from WW II which had decades to compound.

The cost of the Korean conflict offers a good example. It's still costing us $$$ but it's a fraction of what it cost in 1951.

Back then it was about 10% of GDP by itself. Today, it's 0.0001%. If any spending or entitlement programs show that decline over time, please let me know. [/quote]If you had invested in Lockheed Martin (the top U.S. weapons manufacturer) over the last few decades, you'd have made a lot. Then again, this might conflict with the ethics of some - I myself would not feel great about this.[/QUOTE]Studies and Wall Street sell-side analysts have shown that the returns on invested capital are HIGHER for non-defense projects than military projects. I haven't seen it updated since the 1990's but it still might be the case.

The notion that military projects -- where you have to eat cost overruns as oppose to pass them onto your buyer (Uncle Sam) -- are super-lucrative is a fiction believed by people who never studied the issue or understand ROIC or ROE.