How much silver is left in the ground?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Vess1, Apr 29, 2012.

  1. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    Good point. As long as mine production is lower than total fabrication demand, there will be upward pressure on silver prices.
     
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  3. fatima

    fatima Junior Member

    This is an example of where electronics reduces metal usage including PM usage. This is a video of a #5 crossbar telephone switch that were commonly used in the USA in the old Ma Bell territories. There were 1000s of them and when you lifted your phone, this is where it was connected. The noise that you hear are phone calls being made. This switch was the pinnacle of electromechanical system design. There are no computers, no operating systems, no digital electronics at all. It was all done by mechanical relays. As a result there was a huge amount of metal used in one of these central offices and there was PMs used all over it because these things were built with specifications of something like 5 minutes downtime in 40 years.

    (make sure you turn up the volume and watch it for a while to see the size of the place)
    [video=youtube;gkXzljS74Nw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkXzljS74Nw[/video]

    Today, these kinds of switches have all been replaced by electronic switching systems and something the size of this office can now be handled by something the size of a refrigerator. It's a huge savings in materials costs and thus also a big reduction in PMs, including silver, being used.
     
  4. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I would agree Cloud IF you determine what fabrication demand is. What is it? Is it industrial usage? Then mining production is much higher than that. If it includes things like physical silver stockpiled in ETFs, silver rounds sold to investors, even sterling silver tea services, are those uses "fabrication demand"? If they are, why are you ignoring recycling from these uses? I would like to see for each type of recycling what the original usage was, to calculate NET jewelry, investment, silverware, and coinage demand.
     
  5. coleguy

    coleguy Coin Collector

    I'm almost certain the bearded guy is William Gaines!!
     
  6. fatima

    fatima Junior Member

    Haha. the noise in those offices slowly drove people to insanity or heavy drinking. Sometimes both.
     
  7. coleguy

    coleguy Coin Collector

    I belive it. I had no idea they were that loud.
     
  8. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    It's taken directly from the chart. Whether or not any number on the chart is even approximately accurate is another matter.
     
  9. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    No, I meant are you including "implied net investment" as fabrication demand? This could be silver bars laying around investors bought.

    Regarding coinage, why is every ounce struck considered "fabrication demand" yet coins sent for melting aren't offset versus this figure? That is my point, I would not discount recovery as a declining resource. Every ounce you consider "fabrication demand" if its not consumed, is future recovered silver. I would basically like to know physical disappearance versus mining numbers to see if there is more or less silver above ground. By "above ground" I would include all of the hundreds of millions of ounces in coins and bars buyers have been buying the last decade.
     
  10. Vess1

    Vess1 CT SP VIP

    Those have thankfully been replaced. But they also didn't have billions of cell phones, computers, advanced cars, planes/jets, and solar panels back then either. With millions more being made every year. At some point, I would guess the small amounts in large quantities becomes a large amount.
     
  11. fatima

    fatima Junior Member

    Really? The entire point of replacing mechanics with electronics is to remove the materials costs and add features. How many 10s of millions of land line telephones were around then compared to now. How many millions of pay phones were displaced by mostly plastic cellphones? One of those phones had more metal in them than 25 cell phones. I would also say there are LESS passenger jets now than back in the days when that video was produced. An "advanced car" means it has less metal in it now.

    The point being relative to electronics driving demand of silver is that electronics reduces the need for materials including materials such as PMs. One of those #5 crossbar switches had tens of thousands of mechanical relays in them, each with a coating of PM to reduce corrosion. The electronic switch that replaced it has no relays.
     
  12. Collector1966

    Collector1966 Senior Member

    There is a company in Japan that recycles silver and other precious metals from circuit boards, cell phones and other discarded electronic goods.

    https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/journalofmmij/123/12/123_12_651/_pdf

     
  13. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    No, I said total fabrication demand which exclueds implied net investment. Regarding coins, sure they can become part of supply, but only at ever-increasing dollar values. I would guess that if silver dropped to $10 tomorrow, very little coin silver would become available to melt. So it is theoretically recoverable, but only if prices keep rising. How many 2012 ASEs will be melted next year if the price drops? So coin aren't really a driver of lower prices. They merely slow the rate of increase.
     
  14. Vess1

    Vess1 CT SP VIP

    Gonna bump this thread from almost 7 years ago. See if anybody who posted is still around to offer an updated opinion. I wasnt that impressed with my posts here. You guys made some great points.
    I re-read the whole thread. Silver still cheap in 2019. I did a google search on this topic tonight and ended up finding my own thread from 7 years ago. Lol
     
    JPeace$ likes this.
  15. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    And i will add to it, it really doesnt matter how much is left on earth or in
    It for that matter a substancial amount has already been pressed, the
    Means in ground or out of it, it going to go round and round.
     
  16. Tokens

    Tokens Member

    You have to be very, very careful about the opinions of 'metals bugs'. They can be incredibly mantric, uninformed and have no rational underpinning (I say this as someone who is an aggressive silver buyer in the 14-17 range).

    They're always the same.

    To them, silver, at any point, is a buy. When prices are low, it's an opportunity. When prices are rising, BETTER GET IN FAST. When prices are high, proof of concept. TO THE MOON FROM HERE! When they go back down, OPPORTUNITY AGAIN! WE'VE SEEN HOW HIGH THEY CAN GO!

    Etc, etc. You get the idea.

    At their core, they're just fetishists who get off on hoarding stuff. Some guys do it with tools, some guys to it with cars, some guys do it with metals, some guys do it with guns, some guys do it with artwork. They're not rational people, they rarely have any actionable insight into anything.

    The idea of 'silver scarcity' is EDITED! Its hillarious to hear people flogging that concept when you can literally buy as much silver as you want, right now, to the extent that your bank account can hold out. Nobody knows for sure how much silver exists in earths crust but silver, like gold, is one of those things that when prices hit a certain level, they just go and get more.

    Metals, contrary to the delusions of PM fetishists, have never been a 'scarcity' play. There's just slightly less silver in earth's crust as there is iodine.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 17, 2019
  17. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    433,345,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 ounces.

    Remember when silver was going to be extinct by 2020 ?? ROFLMAO
     
  18. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    Its nice to read a sober post on this site, finally.
     
  19. Don P

    Don P Active Member

    Um, most of silver is used for industrial purposes, not for precious metals!
     
  20. twoshadows

    twoshadows Member

    Silver DOES get consumed and most of it is not reclaimed like gold is. The profit margin is just not there. The real question is not how much silver is left on the planet but how much its costs to get to it. Personally I think a silver shortage has already started compared to what was available years ago. And I also think when this electrical revolution finally takes hold copper will be come a precious metal and production numbers are already declining in that area as well. Will be interesting to see what the future does bring.
     
  21. myownprivy

    myownprivy Well-Known Member

    Why do you believe a silver shortage exists? What is your evidence?
     
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