How much silver is left in the ground?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Vess1, Apr 29, 2012.

  1. Guano

    Guano New Member

    If every cell phone has 0.3 grams of silver and silver went to a 1000 an ounce they could still make the phones and not have to raise the price by more then $10 per phone.
     
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  3. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Um, ok, so coating the silver is just unheard of? Don't ask me, I was just an electrician and dealt with coated wires for years, which prevented corrosion.

    Sorry, it simply seems extremely odd to say the best electrical conductor in the universe simply has no "practical benefits" in electronics.
     
  4. fatima

    fatima Junior Member

    Since you bring up yet another personal anecdote, I'm an electrical engineer who has been involved in all aspects of electronic card design, assembly & test.

    What I will ask you, since you have dealt with wiring, how much silver wire did you use and what was it used in?
     
  5. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I didn't, I was in commercial/residential wiring. I am the one who has been pointing out on the board for weeks how silver can be replaced, as it already has been in homes.

    Regarding electronics, I know for a fact circuit boards are using them now heavier due to what you referenced already the phase out of lead. My wife's friend's husband is an engineer of circuit boards. This was the basis also of my posts a few months ago describing increased utilization of palladium in circuit boards as well.

    Btw, I was referring to you saying corrosion of silver prevents its use in electronics. All of the major conductors corrode, so I was simply point out all of them are coated to prevent them from doing so, to enable their efficient use. IDK why silver would be different than copper or aluminum. Can you state why silver wire could not be coated in such uses to prevent tarnishing? It was your assertion to begin with.

    Dang, I argue silver can be replaced, get yelled at. I argue silver is an excellent conductor, I get yelled at. Tough thread.

    Btw Fatima, just what is your problem with this "personal anecdote" crud? Its tiring how you need to simply speel insults constantly. If you wished, I would have simply given you a link to a manufacturer of residential wiring and shown you every single wire is coated. Same difference.
     
  6. fatima

    fatima Junior Member

    Why not? Resistance is extremely important in high current situations. It has the best electrical conductance.

    This is the ONLY criteria that you gave for using silver in electronics so why isn't it used in household wiring?
     
  7. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I never said it was the only criteria. If you actually read any of my posts on this thread, instead of coming late looking for something to argue about, I have been saying over and over economics will dictate, and will possibly overcome the fact silver is a better conductor and lead to its replacement, just as has happened in home wiring.

    Please read the thread and then ask my why I am arguing electrical conductivity is the only requirement on what material to use. I haven't, and in fact have constantly argue the opposite. Argue with the rest of the posters here that point.
     
  8. fatima

    fatima Junior Member

    So I made a post about not expecting much demand for silver from electronics.

    And you curtly replied to that in the 3rd person.... "Yea, I thought that comment was a little funny too. For electrical devices, nothing beats silver for conductivity." So you must not have read my post in the same manner that you demand that the rest of us do for you. My post was pretty clear on why silver demand won't be peaked by electronics.

    Next time, if you have a question or something is unclear, you really don't need to take this tactic. Just ask.
     
  9. InfleXion

    InfleXion Wealth Preserver

    The question to answer your question is this. What's more important, having a fast computer processor or a fast light bulb? Nobody cares if they flip a switch and it takes a microsecond longer for the light to come on, but when you are relying on computing speeds that is where silver earns its keep. If there are situations where high end electrical current is needed, but silver is not being used, then I don't know the answer other than maybe they are cutting corners or prefer being thrifty over having better performance. I mean, you're paying over 100x the value for silver vs. copper. If silver does not perform 100 times better then is it really worth using it for huge wiring cables as compared to tiny electrical circuits on a microchip.

    Elsewhere in this thread it's been pointed out that silver use is miniscule in these technological applications, but I don't think the number of applications has been accurately represented. Here is an off the cuff list: cell phones, tablets, laptops, desktop computers, monitors, robotics, RFID chips, all other chips used in your microwave, oven, car, truck, airplane, coffee maker, refrigerator, alarm clock, any appliance or machinery you can think of that has any form of digitization. This doesn't even take into account the growing solar demand, or the limitless applications of nano-silver that I won't even attempt to list. Ultimately investment demand is the wildcard in this scenario and it has been growing more rapidly than industrial demand.

    Sure, many of silver's applications can be replaced by copper if there's not a need on the high end, especially for antibacterial qualities (again, less effective however), but there will always be demand for high end items for as long as people can afford to pay for it, especially by universities, corporations, and governments which all have big wallets compared to your average consumer, and maybe more importantly, a greater need for quality. Silver may not be as indispensible as I often think it is, but there is no equivalent substitute on its level of performance.
     
  10. JCB1983

    JCB1983 Learning

    The electric car as well.
     
  11. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    The speed/processing power of computers..to...microwave ovens is more related to the internal chip "wiring" connections than the pc boards and are etched on doped silicon wafers. the distances are so short inside a CPU or memory chip. etc. that photon tubes will eventually replace any metallic connections. Capacitors also help store electrical needs close to their usage. Eventually room temperature superconducting materials will eliminate almost all needs for silver in electric cars, etc.
    AIMHO as I do not profess to know the future.

    Jim
     
  12. InfleXion

    InfleXion Wealth Preserver

    Photonic microprocessing is definitely the future of computing, and Intel does have some prototypes already that are incredibly fast by replacing the speed of electricity with the speed of light (an electron). This is akin to comparing the microchips we use today vs. the old tube systems of legacy computing that would take up an entire warehouse for one dinosaur processor.

    Also, electrons can be spun in 4 different directions, creating a base 4 system at the machine language level (0, 1, 2, and 3 before needing a new digit) as opposed to the current base 2 binary system (power on = 1, power off = 0, and after 1 you need a new digit to count any higher). So not only would it be light speed fast, but it would carry magnitudes more data per bit.

    For example using 10000 as being displayed:
    - In a base 10 system the value is 10000 (one 10000, zero 1000's, zero 100's, zero 10's, and zero 1's).
    - In a base 4 system the value is 256. (one 256, zero 64's, zero 16's, zero 4's, and zero 1's)
    - In a binary system the value is 16. (one 16, zero 8's, zero 4's, zero 2's, and zero 1's)

    Each new digit is the next magnitude of the base system being used. So base 4 uses less throughput and increases efficiency exponentially.

    Is this extremely powerful technology (35 DVDs of data/sec at the CPU level - link below) really going to be available for public consumption anytime soon? They usually only release each new processor with the most incremental improvements possible so as to maximize sales of each new model. It will happen eventually, but time is always the question.

    http://download.intel.com/pressroom/pdf/photonics/SiliconPhotonics_Backgrounder.pdf
     
  13. C Jay

    C Jay Member

    I would think that industrial demand for silver is down with the decline of film based photography. One electrical property silver has is in quick blow fuses. I once had run of a lighting system that used 20 to 100 amp silver link fuses. The fusing had the ability to halt a dead short much quicker than a magnet circuit breaker and protected the electronic dimming. They were very pricey at the time, about 20 bucks a fuse, and silver was at 2 dollars.
     
  14. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    But silver used in film processing has also traditionally been recycled. I believe I read someplace that about 90% is recovered. So the use of silver in film was largely offset by the increase in supply from recycling. It isn't as large an impact as you might think.
     
  15. webomatic

    webomatic Member

    http://futuremoneytrends.com/index.php/category-table/146-you-cant-beat-silver-as-an-investment-
     
  16. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    While other parts I may agree with, just clarifying that its not the speed of light versus speed of electricity that would make a photon computer faster. These speeds are nearly equal. A photon computer would be faster since the connections could be 1000 times denser than with electrical circuits since photon circuits would not interfere with each other. Especially for chip design this is important since it would restrict any bottlenecks for input/output since there literally would be no 1 circuit in or out, all circuits could go in or out the main processors.

    Regarding post 74, I thought it was interesting but a little far fetched. Once you link something to plastic, then everything in the world is "because of that". Nice ideas, but I felt too far of a stretch if he is trying to declare all of these things would not exist save for silver. Seriously, a silver wedding ring? What a cheap bugger. I bet his wife is thrilled when he takes her out for their anniversary at IHOP.
     
  17. webomatic

    webomatic Member

    [TABLE="class: tablestyle"]

    [TD="colspan: 11"][h=3]World Silver Supply and Demand[/h](in millions of ounces)
    [/TD]


    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    [TR="class: gray"]
    [TD="colspan: 11"]Supply[/TD]
    [/TR]

    Mine Production
    594.5
    597.2
    613.6
    636.6
    641.1
    665.9
    683.6
    716.1
    751.4
    761.6

    Net Government Sales
    59.2
    88.7
    61.9
    65.9
    78.5
    42.5
    30.5
    15.6
    44.2
    11.5

    Old Silver Scrap
    197.3
    196.0
    197.4
    201.6
    206.0
    203.0
    200.9
    200.0
    228.7
    256.7

    Producer Hedging


    9.6
    27.6




    50.4
    10.7

    Implied Net Disinvestment
    17.4









    [TR="class: gray"]
    Total Supply
    868.3
    881.9
    882.4
    931.7
    925.6
    911.4
    915.0
    931.7
    1,074.7
    1,040.6
    [/TR]

    [TD="colspan: 11"][/TD]
    [TR="class: gray"]
    [TD="colspan: 11"]Demand[/TD]
    [/TR]

    Fabrication











    Industrial Applications
    355.3
    368.4
    387.4
    431.8
    454.2
    491.1
    492.7
    405.1
    500.0
    486.5

    Photography
    204.3
    192.9
    178.8
    160.3
    142.2
    117.6
    101.3
    79.3
    72.1
    66.1

    Jewelry
    168.9
    179.2
    174.8
    173.8
    166.3
    163.5
    158.7
    159.8
    167.4
    159.8

    Silverware
    83.5
    83.9
    67.2
    67.6
    61.2
    58.6
    57.4
    59.1
    51.2
    46.0

    Coins & Medals
    31.6
    35.7
    42.4
    40.0
    39.8
    39.7
    65.3
    78.8
    99.4
    118.2

    Total Fabrication
    843.5
    860.1
    850.6
    873.6
    863.7
    870.5
    875.3
    782.0
    890.1
    876.6

    Producer De-Hedging
    24.8
    20.9


    6.8
    24.2
    8.5
    17.4



    Implied Net Investment

    0.9
    31.8
    58.1
    55.1
    16.6
    31.2
    132.2
    184.6
    164.0
    [TR="class: gray"]
    Total Demand
    868.3
    881.9
    882.4
    931.7
    925.6
    911.4
    915.0
    931.7
    1,074.7
    1,040.6
    [/TR]

    [TD="colspan: 11"][/TD]

    Silver Price
    (London US$/oz)
    4.599
    4.879
    6.658
    7.312
    11.549
    13.384
    14.989
    14.674
    20.193
    35.119

    [TD="colspan: 11"]
    SOURCE: World Silver Survey 2012
    [/TD]
    [/TABLE]
    For an in-depth look at silver production, please see our Production section. For articles related to supply and demand, see the Silver News archives.
     
  18. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    I know the Silver Institute and their World Silver Survey is a popular source for supply and demand information, and they produce very official looking charts. But everyone should keep in mind that a lot of the data is suspect because it just isn't that easy to accumulate the non-public information that would be needed for accurate numbers.
     
  19. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    How I look at it, and I could be wrong, is mine production is much higher and industrial demand. Ignoring "recycling", new silver is much higher than industrial usage. The difference is making jewelry, coins, stockpiling, and silverware. Now, my question is is this really a "use". Is this silver forever "used" in these items, or are they really all forms of inventory? Yes, there are some coins that are not readily meltable, but is an ASE a "use" of silver, or is it a "inventory" of silver to be melted in the future if we need silver for industry?

    That question determines how you view the silver market I believe. If you believe making a ASE forever prohibits that silver from being used again, then you view the silver market as in an extreme physical shortage. If you don't, you don't see a physical shortage. I am not saying either view is right, and not beliettling anyone's opinion, I am just pointing out that is what I believe fundamentally affects ones view of this market.

    Just my opinion.

    Chris
     
  20. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    I would say that first, nobody really knows what industrial demand is. Do companies report their silver usage? I doubt it because it's proprietary. How about companies in China? The same goes with other numbers on the chart. It is a series of guesses, and "Implied Net Investment" is the plug. Since the major silver warehouses such as Comex have less inventory than ten years ago, I don't know how inventories can be steadily growing. The one ounce silver coin market doesn't seem large enough to offset this.
     
  21. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I was guessing that ETF and the like were some of the implied net investment.

    Not disagreeing with your criticisms of the chart Cloud, just stating if we are going to use this chart as the basis of discussion, that is the two perspectives I could see people having of the same data but leading to different conclusions.
     
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