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<p>[QUOTE="jolumoga, post: 1722543, member: 41780"]That's possible. Call me crazy, but if the parallel universe theory is true, then all scenarios will occur. However, the world works in terms of probabilities, so some outcomes are more likely than others, though we may be limited in our ability to process information in a way that would make us better prognosticators.</p><p><br /></p><p>Currently, silver is performing inversely to the dollar. Over time, I suppose it's possible for correlations to form or break down. Plus the factors impacting the silver price are numerous. If there is one thing I hope some have grasped from my posts, it is that breaking down Silver Institute numbers on supply and demand, or looking at a static number like the cost of production of last year or the year before it, is not a solid indicator on where the silver price is headed. Now, I know my predictions can be terrible at times, since I'm only human, but the inverse correlation between DXY and silver has been evident recently. It's not a balanced relationship, however: silver swings wildly disproportionate to the dollar's movements and future expectations about it. On the other hand, factors such as supply vs. demand and the cost of production will have to be accounted for eventually, and thus will significantly affect the price of silver in the long run. The problem is that the long run can mean years, or even many years. Assuming the dollar strengthens significantly relative to other major currencies, silver may plunge beyond almost everyone's expectations due to panic selling. However, a deflationary scenario such as that one will surely be met with significant monetary easing by the Fed, which will propel silver out of its lows. I have shared my skepticism about the Fed's long-term plans though, so I won't beat that dead horse in this post.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="jolumoga, post: 1722543, member: 41780"]That's possible. Call me crazy, but if the parallel universe theory is true, then all scenarios will occur. However, the world works in terms of probabilities, so some outcomes are more likely than others, though we may be limited in our ability to process information in a way that would make us better prognosticators. Currently, silver is performing inversely to the dollar. Over time, I suppose it's possible for correlations to form or break down. Plus the factors impacting the silver price are numerous. If there is one thing I hope some have grasped from my posts, it is that breaking down Silver Institute numbers on supply and demand, or looking at a static number like the cost of production of last year or the year before it, is not a solid indicator on where the silver price is headed. Now, I know my predictions can be terrible at times, since I'm only human, but the inverse correlation between DXY and silver has been evident recently. It's not a balanced relationship, however: silver swings wildly disproportionate to the dollar's movements and future expectations about it. On the other hand, factors such as supply vs. demand and the cost of production will have to be accounted for eventually, and thus will significantly affect the price of silver in the long run. The problem is that the long run can mean years, or even many years. Assuming the dollar strengthens significantly relative to other major currencies, silver may plunge beyond almost everyone's expectations due to panic selling. However, a deflationary scenario such as that one will surely be met with significant monetary easing by the Fed, which will propel silver out of its lows. I have shared my skepticism about the Fed's long-term plans though, so I won't beat that dead horse in this post.[/QUOTE]
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