How Low Will Silver Go?

You're a dog? whodathunkit???

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Wanna rub my tummy?

 

Negative....but I might have a scooby snack lying around...would that hook you up?

 

This is true but, repeating myself, Silver was $5.00 and lower 10 years ago. I would think that miners have their base production hedged making current price more or less a future concern 1 or 2 years down the road as far as production goes.
Outside of PMs have other mining interest experienced a 4 to 5 fold cost increase? Mining is mining - you use big giant equipment and macinery to extract tons and tons of dirt from the earth. Their cost structure in my mind appear to be more alike than different. What is it in the mining process of extracting a PM that has caused their per unit cost to grow at a rate significantly greater than other mining interest?

 

What makes you think other mining costs haven't increased? Copper was at a low of around .60 cents a pound only about 10 years ago, now its over $3 a pound. Lead was at about .20 cents a pound 10-15 years ago, now its close to a $1 per pound, ect.

 

Where can I buy it for 19?

 

you watch a lot of glenn beck goldline commercials?

 

Well - I could be thinking wrong.

 

Where can you buy for $19? well, probably not today, it took a little rebound, but I think the trend will still be down, and it won't be long before you can buy for $19 just about anywhere.
I will be holding the silver I find in coin rolls. Also making selective silver purchases that also have some numismatic value. I've been holding off buying for the collection for some time now with the price too high. Got some things I want to buy.... soon, when it sinks past $19

 

It ought to be noted that as late as the end of April, the following firms were still being quoted regarding their estimates as to where the price of silver would go in 2013:

$26 (Barclays)

$31 (Deutsche Bank)

$33 (HSBC)

$35 (Morgan Stanley)

These are certainly not lightweights in the field of commodity analysis, nor the typical hawkers of physical silver who benefit from self-serving optimism. But they all nevertheless seem to have gotten it wrong, unless silver is poised for a remarkable rebound in the second half of the year. For even the lowest of these forecast prices to be achieved, silver prices now would have to rise 30% over the span of just six months.

So when it's asked "How low will silver go?" the answers here shouldn't be taken too seriously. We're at least as likely to be off-base as all the extremely smart folks at these prestigious banks.

I'd reiterate that this year's silver chart still looks lousy, and this latest leg down helps that situation not a whit. Some unexpected crisis or event may yet occur to send silver all the way back up and then some before January, making some or even all of the above predictions come true after all, but barring that happening, from solely a technical standpoint it's looking increasingly improbable.

 

Well maybe, but I submit they did understand that Silver was heading sub 20, it was just the timing they got wrong. I know the speed of the drop sure surprised me. I believe the valuation is relatively easy, but it is the timing that is a bugger to predict.

Mike

 

PM projection is really quite simple...PMs are "generally" inversely proportional to interest rates. Once sequestration was authorized, it was clear interest rates would rise and PMs would fall...fall back to pre-recession levels. Those bank guys never take a risk and rarely get it right.

 

Good post, it's pretty much impossible to predict the markets with any certainty, especially in the short term.

I wonder what the average cost to mine silver was back in 1980? Maybe $2-3 an ounce tops, and that may be on the high side, that means at the peak in the last bull run silver was trading at 17-25x the cost of mining production.

If the same thing happens in this bull run you'd see a price of $150-$250 or so.

By no means does this mean it will happen, but it shows that silver can trade well above current mining costs.

 

A lot of the people working at those Wall St. firms are highly paid, over-educated idiots, at least when it comes to PM. After all, it was only after gold had risen 400%-500% that they all started recommending that "everyone own some". I never heard that from mainstream Wall St. types when gold was $300-$400, & silver was $5 or $10.......

Then there's "how to value" PM, which to me always seems difficult. So much of it is based on fear, mania, popularity, whatever asset class is being "chased" at the moment, etc. Is silver worth $10? Or $19? We've already learned it wasn't really "worth" $30, not that long ago.....unless you were a seller.....

And of course, silver hit $25, or more, in 1979.....that alone would dissuade me from loading up now at $19. Just my 2cents.....

 

We're all looking at these numbers with the benefit of hindsight. If you asked those same firms now, I daresay their estimates might be quite different.

 

It remains that their prognostications were well off the mark. What they say now after events have proven that hardly matters, even if you're willing to continue to put trust in it.

 

Looks like the markets are going to get hit hard again today (initially, anyway)...same with PMs. Gold down another $15 in overseas trading...silver down 50¢.

 

Man, really? "Overeducated" like education is some sort of evil that should be avoided? Like Mike said timing is about impossible, especially considering a commodity so highly driven by emotions.

I will say I have never put much weight in Wall Street forecasts. Way too many variables for them to be very accurate. Profit analysis, competitive positions, financing needs, etc I trust their analysis though. Unfortunately PM has none of these things, its simply a commodity with a lot of emotional attachment.

I simply find it funny how many on this board treat wall street forecasts. Either they are too low and get mocked, are too high and get mocked, or predict what actually does happen every once in a while, and when that happens people highlight it as "proof" how they are part of the "manipulation". Lol. On the whole, though, would you say wall street price predictions are better or worst than many who come here predicting $10,000 gold and $300 silver? Those people do not tend to stick around, but have peppered this board throughout the years fairly steadily.

TBH I am somewhat surprised myself pm is continuing to drop right now. Unfortunately my stocks are getting hit hard too, and I didn't save up enough of those darn worthless bits of FRN's every hates so much to be able to buy as much as I might like on this dip.

 

low silver is a good thing.

 

I like buying! but I do not think low silver is good... well it is temporarily