How Low Will Silver Go?

That depends on the miner. If it's a true silver play, the costs are more readily identified. But most silver is mined as a secondary metal out of copper and other base metal mines. It's difficult to put a cost on that at all, because they're not actually looking for silver - just keeping what they find.

 

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oh, people have been throwing that number around.....

 

But Chris, it's not like anyone recommended for you to wait a bit :devil:

 

I don't put a lot of credence into predicting future events from charts...except for support/resistance levels. I see them as "Cost Basis" levels...levels where significant amounts were either bought or sold.

In other words, it seems to influence the supply/demand dynamic...levels at which folks are reluctant to buy or sell. Gold seems oversold at these levels. I wouldn't be surprised to see a DCB back to $1330 before heading lower.

...but, you're right...who knows?

 

Low enough to cashflow the production of around 600 million ounces annually.

 

True. Justafarmer is also right, they didn't shut down when silver was $4 an ounce. I think margins were tighter then basically due to government selling. So I view the 1990's as tighter margins than today.

The problem with costs is they have escalated a lot in the 2000's due to all of the activity aroud the world in mining. I have read in Australia its common for a HS dropout mining iron ore to demand over $100k a year. I am not talking about a talented employee, its EVERY EMPLOYEE getting paid that high. As a result, I would not be surprised if most silver mines have around $15 an ounce into it nowadays. But, its variable per mine of course.

 

I know man, and I was agreeing with you, but for $1600 for a non-cleaned SG that appears BU to me, with the date I wanted, I just thought was a fair deal. Semi PM, semi numismatic.

 

now that silver broke $20, I'm "accumulate" again, but just for jollies - I still think $14 is likely with a brief bottom as low as $11 within the next 18 months.
Of course, all predictions are opinions of the author and worth every bit of what you paid for it.

 

HMMM, seems a bit better than the advice by Ted Butler to buy at $45 that he charges $420 a year for......Just sayin'

 

Sure cost have gone up but from close to $4.00 (assuming tight margins) to $15.00 in this relative short period of time?

 

Well its been 15-20 years since I was buying. It was $4 then, and 20 years of inflation takes that $4 to over $10 with just 5% inflation. From everything I have read mining has experienced much higher than average inflation rates on inputs. Just look at oil, its up from $20 a barrel to around $100 in the same timeframe.

 

You know that was just a friendly poke ( I knew you could take it). If I was not on "good behavior on my spending" after I just purchased my car, I would be right there with you, I love those things and put them in the collectors rhelm where I do not worry so much about cost basis and boring stuff like that

 

This is what I said when silver was in the $40's and some were screaming it would go to $100.

 

Everything tanking today, although silver has the biggest loss, down about $2 or 10%. Gold down about 7%, Crude Oil down about 4%, copper down over 3%, nat gas down over 2%, platinum down about 5%, corn down over a 1%, Palladium down over 4%, stock market down over 2%

 

Silentnviolent, I'm pickin up what your puttin down
at $40 + I was going through my old albums and selling low grade silver coin and buying much higher grades for the same $ but not accumulating more. Even sold off some at $42 and $38. Also sold off some of my coin roll search finds on the slide down, even in the high $20s
I think it will go lower, but I don't have to hit the day its at it low to buy, I think we are at a good buy point. You buy, hold or accumulate at $19

 

I like the idea of silver going to $11--$14 again. I'd like it even better, if the premiums came down on ASE's or 90%. I do wonder, how many silver Bugs, have considered the possibility that silver could go to...... $12, to pick a #, & stay there for a few years? I'd think there might be a lot of disillusioned silver investors who've only known PM going up.

Not predicting, but I think the "fervor" for PM of the last few years, will almost have to cool off at some point......Then again, maybe too many of us want it to, so we can buy more.......

 

PMs will lose a lot of mainstream buyers if they quit rising in price. Any asset or investment that drifts sideways on price for too long loses the people who were in it for a quick buck.

 

With silver and gold dropping, and the stock and bond market having a very bad day, it looks like your mattress may be the only safe place for your money. :>(

 

I still believe PM will skyrocket at some point when panic buying sets in.

 

Ahhh...the warm glow of a prediction well realized...