How high could the 2012 Silver Eagle Set go?

That would depend on how much you put into it, like anything else. You could buy a single stock of apple or you could buy 10,000 shares. There is no limit.

 

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This is nothing new actually. There's quite a few mint products that were available most or all of the year. Initially collectors and dealers snub them, only to find out later that the item becomes highly desirable by collectors. Many probably don't realize how huge a constraint the 1 month mintage really is.

2009 UHR is an example. $200 over spot, unlimited mintage for 6 months, collectors were crying that it's overpriced and the mintage was too high. Flippers were probably netting only $50 profit on ebay raw. I think MS70s were selling on ebay for around $1800 or so. Now look at it.

I do think that this set will average out to around 100% appreciation in the longer term. But I'll also say that hindsight is 20/20, and that the US mint makes A TON of products that lost money or stayed flat in the long run.

 

However this thread, initiate in the wrong forum subsection isn't a bullion investing topic item per say. These are numismatic collectors talking about collector coins in an (unwise) investment potential sense with no facts to go on. Optimism and unfounded confidence in what to expect is not factually supported and like any bullion prediction that is likewise based on hope and crystal ball theories, isn't worth it's salt, hence a dime a dozen on these forums. Sensing the members bogus claims and past predictions of a similar nature, I offered a dose of reality by calling them out on their prediction showing that they didn't stand to support this claim by demonstrating how successful they themselves would be from this prediction. That is the issue and I think it was resolved rather neatly by the admission of fretboard that he couldn't support his 'predictions'. What is also common in the bullion investing forum is challenging, debating and overturning unsupported predictions. So I don't see what running to the defense of the indefensible is all about with your post.

Furthermore, the cheerleaders of new products that were widely available to all who wanted them before they have the chance to organically perform financially, only work to hype and undo the success of the very thing they boast about. If they can't obtain it because demand and aftermarket price is too high, they moan complain. If attention is lathered on some thing expected to perform but flops they moan and complain. This excessive banter over this is more a psychological effect of waiting out the time until the product arrives in the mail than a substantiated or necessary group of sub-topics about the item being discussed. The result of too numerous posts lacking of quality is a forum lacking in quality as well as being disorganized by discussions planted in the wrong categories and moderators not tending to their sorting when they spot those which ought to be in US Coins > Coin Chat rather than Bullion Investing. I'm sorry if that stings some readers, but you did ask.

 

Low mintages of such products marketed to the collector mind-set is effective at creating demand for "limited" products. They sell out at any price and the ROI proves to them that they should keep milking the sheep.

These programs don't over produce products with enormous mintages that dwarf the level of demand as well as the scale of the hobby in the nations the coins come from, as does US coin legislation allow for most US modern commemorative silver dollars to be minted beyond what the Mint can sell in the allotted time. They either sell too many and the aftermarket collapses or they sell too few and have an unpopular coin circulating amongst collectors while the Mint needing to destroy the units wastefully marketed and over minted.

 

How high, you ask???


This high!

 

Thank you for helping to keep things on track, particularly with your informative post upthread about the virtues of urban living (containing not a single word pertaining to ANY branch of numismatics).

 

Your post is pretty stellar too.

 

http://www.chattanoogacoins.com/PREORDER-2012-S-2-Piece-Silver-Eagle-Prestige-70-Set-NGC-FR_p_7029.html

Not bad after only a couple of days.

 

How about a comment instead of an advertisement, fret.

 

I've been suprised before, but what I really expect is for the price of this to go up fast early, expecially if you get delivery in August and flip it right away. I'd venture a guess that the prices will peak towards the end of August and if you get delivery of sets then and, had the foresight to buy more for later deliver, you'd probably be in a good or great position to take advantage of your good fortune.

As far as grading is concerned, I'm not exactly sure what I'd do. I notice that the sets of 70's of the 5 coin set still command big money, and that really suprises me considering the availability of them and how many were graded as 70's. I'll also state that I just don't understand the mentality of buying graded bullion, other than some people just have a need to "measure up", or show off that they can and are willing to spend money to have the "best".

In the end, I wish all of you good luck in collecting, stacking, flipping or whatever you're trying to do. It's your life, your money and your time, so enjoy it however you see fit. Never let the naysayers get you down, why should you, it's your skin, not theirs...

 

^

from past observations, prices should ramp up quickly as presales turn to actual sales and the "mania" takes hold. Then it should drop somewhat as more inventory becomes available, then level off and move towards it's "true" value.

Getting graded 70s should be easier for this set than the others sets because you can cherry pick all the coins to send in.

Guess some people like getting graded modern bullion coins because it's almost like a stamp of approval that this coin is X quality and legitimate. I guess like buying a product that is EPA approved, "organic", bpa free plastics, no msg, etc. I actually like both types of products. Some things I prefer graded, others raw. Matter of preference.

But to each his own.

 

Not sure what it says when there haven't been naysayers... nay may I say an abundance of optimisim in what could be amounts to a negative in demand and performance as the products become available "in-hand". Then the months wear on, the holiday gift giving season passes and the current new thing is then surpassed by the next and the next. Learning to caution that immediate sense of expectant optimism and seek the long term results speaks volumes more about the importance of the pieces being collected and traded and that this isn't just some trendy flash in the pan each time a new product is offered into the body of collectors, that has merely been stirred up by marketing and the momentary tender palpitations of collector zeal only to have such bleating quieted when herded towards the forthcoming of another new, special, limited product offering in the next calendar year.

As has become all too familiar and fits like a template on collector/consumerist behavior, the actual thing being sought ends up mattering less and less. Go back and review any new product release, swap the name of the product and it's mintage figures, look at which collectors (of this Forum for instance) are again saying and see what it shows us... See the same figures on the side of the fence, read the same banter, the same old tired boasts abut flipping, the same barking and blasts that follow about all of these products. There isn't much new being stated that hasn't applied to previous offerings and the slivers of difference in mintage statistics is hardly determining rarity given the abundance of products flooding this hobby. So posting comments about the future performance of any given new product to another one already past, is only repeating what you've become accustomed to reading and commenting about on said products previously. Stating how well people will make out buying the next new product when you yourself can't or aren't doing the same isn't really participating in the success you declare there is to be had. Were it, you wouldn't be sharing such strategy, instead of just jabbering on wearing it down! Rallying for others to join the bandwagon of coming success to be had flipping only conspires against one's own success, as attention is drawn to the potential before there's ever been realized opportunities. Why else then do you see such obnoxiously high anticipated presale offers? Those are attempting to lock in the opportunity that everyone already knows about, usually at the expense of the inexperienced. The margin of success is slim at best and those who succumb to extravagant retail offers only reinforce the absurdity that forums end up mocking in the lead up to new product releases.

What I am saying is the topics being discussed aren't any different from past product releases. Collector behavior has become predictable. The opportunities sometimes enjoyed are becoming nearly non-existent due to some collectors' eagerness to broadcast how easily it is to expect a winning outcome. Such repeated behavior is the brand loyalty gold that marketing departments employed by the Mint's have come to depend on and exploit. Be cautious that your own enthusiam turns the hobby into the very thing you even loathe from time to time, novelty collections of manufactured collectibles thinnly supported by the bubble from reality you exist, operate and communicate within.

These anticipatory thread discussions could be made into much more than repeat performances of past product release sagas... rather than a master stroking of ones idleness as you watch the time tick away until a product is received. There isn't much effort being made to create posts of quality, let alone much effort (a few clicks and impatient waiting) in "collecting." That is, the act of collecting has been severely reduced to an online repeating soap-opera episode paired with electronic transfer of funds in the acquisition of so called collectibles.

Let's hear the real voice of real collectors. We can always point to ridiculously overpriced items on eBay, from online merchants and there could be so much more to this than what has been made out of, "How high could X-product go?" None of that financial reward nonsense should matter to collectors already willing to buy a product at nearly three times its intrinsic value. Not much that's remarkable anymore can be made of the act of flipping as we all know how the game is played. So to repeat with each successive product offering the same discussions is akin to the acts of the insane as the saying goes. It's really amazing that where there really isn't anything new to discuss that multiple threads can spin on and on and if challenged and urged for something deeper, more rewarding, the naysayer is booed off stage.

 

I love history. You can learn alot about the present by revisiting the past. Typically, the best at their business are the ones who have studied the past of their business. If you have totally figured out the coin business from the past and you can now predict the future, it is a great thing. You should be able to make a fortune in this business. I've been studied this business for quite a few years and consider myself above average. It is one of the things that I like about coins. It ties together coins, history, and investment into one package. I like all three.

 

That's you opinion - as far as I am concerned buying silver in any form is a form of Bullion investment ~ that's my definition and nothing you can say will change that.

Tell that to the people that bought the 2006 set and the 2011 set

Consider the last statement and tell me how making predictions on these are unfounded ~ if you do not like the idea of it, why participate in the thread??? Other people enjoy the discussion - let them be and participate in areas you enjoy and and believe in.

A dose of reality - who's yours? Who are you to offer a dose of reality but just another person with an opinion? Bogus claims is your opinion - you are just making a contrary prediction in a not so friendly manner. Just because I think Apple stock is going to jump another $100 after the release of the iPhone 5 doesn't mean I have to go buy a 100 shares just to support my prediction. Question - how would you like it if someone gave you a dose of reality when you make posts in other areas of the forum. My bet is that it would tick you off that someone would act as such and that you would give them a 5 paragraph explanation of why they were are out of line.

In my opinion, and other posters that have post similar thoughts and opinions about what happened with the UHR, Fretboard's opinion is more likely than those that do not think these will have any upside. But that's just my opinion and I am not going out and spending a large chunk of money to "prove my conviction" to a bunch of nay-sayers on the other end of a network connection. If you don't believe in these predictions do the other members a favor that enjoy the topic, and leave them alone to have at it. You know the saying - if you have nothing nice to say, don't say anything.

You were not challenging his prediction, I saw nothing supporting a different prediction? That last statement is just a bunch of horse manure. While others have given differing opinion with or without reasoning to back it up, you just went after a different member without any thought as to what you believe will happen.

I guess call me stupid because that statement makes no sense to me. If I try to interpret what you said, again look at the performance to date of the UHR and the 2006 ASE set. Those collectors are pretty darn happy with there predictions and the secondary market success. As far as I can understand it, you are making a prediction that would be hard to support with this particular product line. Hope I got the meaning correct.

What do those two sentences have to do with this topic?

That's your opinion and you are welcome to it, but I disagree as I stated in my opening, Silver is bullion and that is something that cannot be argued with. Buying silver is a form of bullion investing whether the buyer realizes it or not. As it relates to this topic, gains or loses made by these puts this topic exactly in the right category IMO. I am sorry if that stings YOUR sense of what is right or wrong.

 

Talking about Moderators doing their jobs - Mortgages have no business in this thread! No more comments about mortgages - stay on topic.

 

Something I've found to be helpful is to use the ignore button. It helps to make these thread pages pleasantly shorter.

 

Yeah yeah yeah... any buying of silver is a form of bullion investing, clearly, but you know better than that, that's not what they are thinking about and expressing here and that their zeal finds them criss-crossing forum subsections with numismatic topics in the bullion investing area and vice versa. They're the same pack that are quick to draw the line on expressing intrinsic value in a numismatic forum sub section discussion if someone attempts to talk about it there. Only a moderator can take the discussion to the appropriate forum once a thread has started in the incorrect section.

As for the rest of your criticism of my reply, I've discussed the same things before, so this shouldn't come as a surprize to fretboard, you or any other regular members discussing this. These threads are a dime a dozen and crop up in forums every time a new product is about to be released. They've become redundant and transparent, even having a negative effect after collectors boast and hype new products, as it erodes the point of the darned things being valued collectibles, which is what they are all hoping for, indicated by supposed low(er) mintages than some previous year and the quick flip they hope to achieve after release. Talking about it only works against their desires yet they yak on about it and attract more attention, more buyers, working to increase sales and result in higher mintages, meaning they end up with less opportunity to flip. Though they just as easily turn like a pack of wolves and curse the Mint for overproduction, poor sales channels, slow shipping and order maintenance when things don't go 'predictably' as it's their own actions contributing to sinking the ship their sailing on.

Plenty of times I've cautioned and challenged these discussions. This is nothing new unless you haven't been paying attention. Each time the same members show up to cheer for each new product release, such that anyone minding the greater topical discussion would be aware of the repeated nature and lack of new information these threads serve as a collecting discourse. Pointing that out isn't my opinion, it's a fact. You can try to declaim my comments as opinions but the forum archives the antics of collectors cheering new products and/or bashing the Mint for the very same things. Collectors anticipating lustily the potential flips and skewering the coin companies and eBay sellers who are out there gouging with high asking prices ahead of the individual collector are such common knowledge that it does little to nothing to change anything by continuing to point out the obvious. Likewise making predictions is just a folly of actions most use to idle their time away, as I said before, until the new coin arrives, the newness wears off and the next product is dangled before their eyes.

The fact that these same members show up with each new product release to post any old link to some overshot asking price before a new item is even in-hand, is just going through the paces and speaks more to their own desire to achieve the same financial results that they are mocking by posting such listings in the first place.

You bring up the 2009 UHR coin and that's a great example, because the UHR was widely anticipated ("predicted") to be a flop! Many collectors on this forum (numismatic and bullion sub forums alike) poked fun at the UHR coins suggesting their diminutive size was lacking appeal, that the mintage was too high to ever create numismatic premium for the demand and many (those who likely couldn't even afford one at Mint retail prices) said the coins would be going for bullion prices in the near future if not faster thatn heading to the melting pot. That coin was on sale for nearly a year, and while metals prices were on the steady rise then too. Look how wrong they were! Even now metlas prices have retreated some, not to 2009 levels, and the UHR shines on, but you don't hear those same people suggesting it's just a bullion coin for the melting pot as they did before.

You seem surprized I wish to discuss any of these coins and while I come at this with a different perspective, I no less have a collectors passion for discussing it and finding an interest in such related topics. I've followed these series, the Mint's offerings and procedures in offering them to us, as well as observed long enough how collectors react to them to comment as I have. I don't mind having an underdog perspective on this, but I offered comments based on longer term observations, and less so on a personal opinion basis, as I know how valuable opinions are in forums.

Similarly, I don't offer predictions which is why you didn't find me divulging my own. I don't do this as I buy the coins to collect and less with the intent to resell at the levels seen on eBay or other aftermarket moderns coin dealers. I've resigned to paying the inflated retail price that's higher than intrinsic value when it comes to such products and I know that most crystal balls are broken and so pretty much pointless to keep piling on variations of the same sort of predictions. The same is true to base investment advice on past performance, but that doesn't stop all of these collectors from comparing the numbers and suggesting they can spot a winner before the numbers are even final. One need not supply an equally hypothetical guess or prediction, when challenging the folly of anothers, lest they fall in the same trap.

 

I have moved all of the Perth Mint posts to their own thread in World and Ancient Coins. As most of the posts were about coins and not about performance so I felt it belonged in that area. The posts were off topic and had nothing to do with this thread.

 

Really? And numismatic coin topics do belong here? I quite beg to differ with your suggestion that mortgages have no business here. Mortgages are quite topically tied to investment discussions. While it may be hard for some people to grasp, mortgages are every bit an asset as they are something valuable a person owns, benefits from and may earn income or preserve wealth from over time, much like investing in bullion.

You've really woken up on the wrong side of the bed this morning it seems...!

 

Rampage! You go! LOL!