How Fast Will The Mint Be Today?

Three households ordered. Working on getting one complete "P" set for each of three kids.

 

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Here's my shot at an analysis, garnered from my order and others I've seen in this very thread:

12:23 Order #373425-- through 12:34 Order #373460--:
~3,500 / ~11 min = ~318 orders per minute (opm)

12:34 Order #373460-- through 12:40 Order #373469--:
~900 / ~6 min = ~150 opm

12:40 Order #373469-- through 12:47 Order #xxxx9xxx:
~2,100 / ~7 min = ~300 opm


12:23-12:45 order rate per minute: ~295


So...high noon to 13:00, order count estimate would be: ~17,700

And at that same rate, 27,000 orders would be reached at ~13:32.

This is a worst case limited sample set/averaged estimate only.
My guess would be that the pucks themselves didn't sell 27,000 before 14:00...just a guess mind you!

 

373536XX at 1:50pm est.

 

Good news then, looks like the rate fell off. There was also that site outage in the mix during the 12:00-14:00 window as well, constraining the order rate quite a bit, I bet.

Using just my order and yours, the 75 minute rate was just over 100 per minute. Much better news to the later afternoon orders, as that would extend the window by 2 to 3 more hours; again, worst case.

 

How can you do that when they clearly say 1 per household? If I had known I could buy more than 1 I would have.

 

never mind. I missed this post.

 

Spoke with a friend who placed her order approximately 90 mins. after mine. Her order confirmation indicated that the Mint was processing approx. 125 orders/ min. during this 90 min. period between our orders.
If demand and processing were consistant, then all 27,000 ATB coins were sold by approx. 4pm in the east or 1 pm in the west.

Considering that the Mint's system was swamped initially, my guess is that by 5pm in the east or 1pm in the west all the ATB coins were sold out.

That's approx. $2.1 million/ hr.

 

Remember, the mint orders would also include orders for product that did not include the Hot Springs 5 oz...so estimating purely off of order number is inaccurate....the question is "By how much?"

 

Well I was doing some calculating between my sisters order and my friends which was the last of the people I know.

Sisters went through about 12:35 #3734170x
Friends went through about 2:10 #3735638x

So about 14,670~ orders went through in about 1.5 hours from what I can see - roughly 163 orders a minute. All things considered, double orders, non 5oz buyers, slowdown into the day etc. I think if you got your order in before 5pm you should be ok. Just a guess but all i know is I GOTS MINE!

 

Indeed, it would be nice to have an average daily order volume for the mint to get it subtracted out of the whole. Still, when their website takes a header, you know the overwhelming reason for that period of demand...that waiting list is very near, if not already growing.

 

High Five! This is the real value of the worst case estimates.

 

I just ordered one. No waiting. Confirmation number sent. So I guess they haven't sold out yet.

 

How Fast Will The Mint Be Today?

Well, at this time of nite it seems be doing just fine. I'm the anchor man gentleman. I wasn't going to order one of these "pucks" but I just happened to see the offering on the mint site tonite and figured what the hey. Judging as to what has already been posted here I'm probably relegated to a waiting list. Don't matter much to me if I get this issue or not, just playin' a bit with things tonite. # reads 37371xxx. Still, it also reads that I'm backorderd and the expected shipping date is the 12th of May. I did order a few other things along with the "puck", most notably an MOH unc. gold piece. That's what I really wanted and it's something that will really add substance to my collection of modern commem's. No problems with the MOH...it's in stock and ready to ship. I'll keep you guys posted on the "puck".

This is Green. Over and out.

 

'nother thing childrens. I didn't see any "household" limits associated with these. From what I could see you could order as many as you wanted. HMMMMMmmmm. The mint usually puts limits on potentially popular issues so the speculators don't get a leg up on the poor unsuspecting public. How come not this time?

 

I ordered at 6pm with #373684xx, if I get one great if not no big deal. Just got my MOH unc gold, very nice indeed! Now I'm wanting the proof!

 

The limit is 1 per household for the first week. It is under 'Ordering Limits'.

 

Oh dear. Seems I've mis-spoken and made a jack wagon of myself (again?). Never mind.........


Aside: Thanks Copperhead for pointing that out.

 

Hehe - Well I may have been pretty close with my estimate! The difference between your order number and mine is 26,740~

I know mine wasn't the first order placed either - what is the earliest # anyone has got? Who can beat 373417xx?

 

I was at work, on the road to a workers memorial, so I pulled over at 8:58 AM PST and started speed dialing. For every busy signal, it took about 10-12 seconds to redial. I did this until 9:43 when I hit a #4, I think, button and an operator came on to ask me about my previous order. I had ordered a Direct Ship 2011 Native American $250 set of coins, so I told her that I want to check on the delivery of these and, also buy an ATB 5 oz. S,ilver Hot Springs coin. She said, "OK, lets check on your shipment". Well, I knew it already went out, as they already emailed me that it had. So I then, proceded to order the 2011 Hot Springs , 5oz. UNC P mint marked, burnished .9999 silver coin. I got the confirming email at 9:43 PST:

Order Process Date: 4/28/11 (the time I connected with them)
Merchandise : 279.95
Freight . . . : 4.95
Total . . : 284.90

Order# 37348xxx I'm confident I'll get a coin.

1. 2010 ATB SILVER COIN - HOT SPRINGS (NP1)
Qty 1 @ $279.95 - Backordered 05/12/11.

I asked a few friends to order this coin for me and I would give them an extra $100 for it. Most said that their credit cards were tapped. Some said they'll see. Some may buy it for they're own to sell.

Who knows? I'm just happy I was able to get my one.

 

I had 373415xx ordered at 12:08 EDT