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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;InfleXion, post: 1257058, member: 29012&quot;]I don&#039;t think I&#039;m saying what you thought I said. Although that could entirely be my fault for not conveying it the way I intended. I gave 3 scenarios, only 1 of which (which is the most likely one to me for at least the near term) has PM&#039;s going up for certain which is the one of monetary easing plus runaway debt. It would certainly be foolish to say PM&#039;s have to go up in every case. Anybody who says that should be junked.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>The other 2 scenarios are deflationary in which I said buying power would likely still increase even if the price itself decreases. One scenario is that we pay off the debt, which would erase a lot of the monetary supply causing deflation and under normal circumstances would cause PM&#039;s to decrease in both price and buying power. However this only works in my mind if the economy can support serious interest rate hikes and I don&#039;t think that&#039;s plausible. So if they were to go that route before the economy can handle it then commerce would most likely screech to a halt, things would come unwound and metals would emerge as a safe haven. If this happens then I could see price going up or down depending on magnitude, but either way having more buying power relatively speaking. </p><p><br /></p><p>If the economy could actually handle this then that&#039;s the one scenario I see PM&#039;s dropping in both price and buying power, where stocks, bonds, and currencies would thrive, but based on the numbers that doesn&#039;t seem like an option at this point. The other scenario is halting monetary easing while not addressing the debt in which case I believe we would reach the same outcome. </p><p><br /></p><p>I suppose we could add one more scenario for the case of both monetary easing subsiding and the debt being paid off, but that would just be a more extreme deflation. If the economy can handle it then I&#039;d be the first one to cheer even as I lose my shirt, but that doesn&#039;t seem likely based on unemployment, GDP growth, and the debt situation, as well the obstacles facing small businesses.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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