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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Vess1, post: 536154, member: 13650&quot;]What exactly would give you that indication at this point?&nbsp; &nbsp; Many large companies are more than likely not going to make it through 2009.&nbsp;&nbsp; They&#039;re going to go away and they won&#039;t be available to invest in anymore.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp; I think everybody has gotten way to use to quick fixes and expect this to be one as well.&nbsp; It wouldn&#039;t surprise me to see the dow hit the 4ks before this hits bottom.</p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp; We may not be going back to the economy we used to have for a long time.&nbsp; This was an inflated economy that RELIED HEAVILY on consumer loans and credit cards for people to have spending power, far beyond what they made.&nbsp; Now these places are reeling in credit lines, closing accounts, not offering loans and dropping customers.</p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp; They got burned bad and policies are probably going to change big time.&nbsp; &nbsp; The free money era could be over for a long time.&nbsp;&nbsp; With people finally getting back to what may be called reasonable spending habits with credit far more limited, I would not expect to see the stock market come roaring back any time soon.&nbsp; &nbsp; Without consumer spending like we had, everything grinds to a halt.&nbsp;&nbsp; As we&#039;ve seen, it branches out and touches all sectors.&nbsp;&nbsp; Not to mention all the existing debt sitting out there that finally has to be dealt with or all the people who have lost jobs and devastated their credit.&nbsp;&nbsp; These people are done buying.&nbsp;&nbsp; The housing crisis isn&#039;t going away.&nbsp;&nbsp; We&#039;ll be feeling that for a long time to come.&nbsp; The government can try to absorb it and make it disappear, but it doesn&#039;t just disappear.&nbsp; Somebody loses big time.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp;This is more than an economic downturn, just waiting for summer to get here.&nbsp; I&#039;d have to say this is more like a once in a century event.&nbsp; They&#039;ll either straighten it out with stimulus or not.&nbsp; We&#039;ve got a 50/50 chance.&nbsp; Trying to be optimistic about it doesn&#039;t physically fix the mess.</p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp; As for gold?&nbsp; Who knows?&nbsp; Wildly unpredictable and nothing would surprise me.&nbsp; Everything has gone down 2 days in a row.&nbsp; Stocks, PMs, oil.&nbsp; Everything simultaneously goes down on a regular basis.&nbsp;&nbsp; I don&#039;t have an explanation.&nbsp; Maybe someone else does.&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>&nbsp; But, I would very highly doubt that after seeing what gold has done and the still fresh anticipation of where it could be headed as a result of the inflation we are now facing......I highly doubt there&#039;s going to be anyone willing to let an ounce of gold go for less than 800 throughout 2009.&nbsp;&nbsp; And I think even that is wishful thinking.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; Simply wishing for it to go lower &quot;just because&quot;, is a pipe dream, IMO.&nbsp; &nbsp; I see no reason for why it would crash.&nbsp; More indicators that it will increase than decrease if not just over the speculation.&nbsp;&nbsp; People are going to hold.&nbsp;&nbsp; Even if it dropped to 500 I don&#039;t see many people willing to dump at that level.&nbsp; Not now after sustaining 900-1000 for this long.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; More than likely, I say it will sustain around that range most of the year.&nbsp;&nbsp; Then next year could get real interesting.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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