how big will the 2009 gold bust be?

Socialism never works because they always run out of other peoples money. That being said the economy will recover on it's own. Nothings changed in the basic needs of food, shelter, medical, sex, drugs, etc. This is an exercise in psychology as it always has been. Unemployment should peak this summer and the recovery will then begin.

Now how much will money will Americans allow this "new" government steal from them before they wake up?

America has the ultimate weapon in the world and the reason we will remain a world power. FOOD. America feeds the world. we cut the food off and everyone starves....

 

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I'd rather try an understand why a dog howls at the moon

I'd rather try an understand why a dog howls at the moon than to try and guess what gold or silver will do!
I've seen silver at $50, $3, and $22 per oz. during my coin career and none of it makes much sense to me.

What I can predict for the rest of 2009 is:

1. We all have and see the Lincoln Cent reverses.
2. The solid copper versions of those in mint and proof sets will be a gigantic hit!
3. Previous years Proof and mint sets will not recover during the year and will trade at at least 20% below bid at best.
4. Good coins will hold value and bad coins will lose value.
5. My opinion of good coins are the keys and semi-keys of any given series in VF to EF with originality and no problems - my opinion of bad coins are common coins in TPG companies holders, all modern mint & proof Commemoratives and highly graded common bullion.

And finally, we can all have a great time in coin collecting no matter what!

 

What $20 will buy (as of yesterday):

• 1 share of Citigroup at $1.22
  
• 1 share of Bank America at $3.62
  
• 1 share of FHLMC at $.38
  
• 1 share of GM at $2.00
  
• 1 share of FNMA at $.39
  
• 1 share of Ford at $1.86
  
• 1 quick pick lottery ticket at $5.00

That leaves $5.00 for lunch...

 

I think you will see some liquidation of gold as the year goes on and into the first and part of the second quarter of next year. I figure gold will be in the 650 range by end of year and 500 or so by June next year. Ice

 

Hey Eddie, Where are you getting your quick picks? Only a buck in NY.....

 

That was yesterday. Now today quite a bit of our food is imported from Central and South America. Doubt me? Go down your produce aisle in your grocery store and check out where all this stuff comes from, sure tain't Iowa.

Corporate farms quickly outsourced, and took their farming to the source of their labour - Mexico, Peru, Chile etc. And we are not talking just bananas either, we are talking quite a sizable portion of the produce that used to come from the USA now comes from Latin America. And it has ripple effects in Latin America that are not positive, like land grabbing from peasants and growing fruits and vegetables not native to the area.

 

You are getting ripped on the quick picks, I think they are only $1 each in my state.

 

What $20 will buy

Best post of the year!

:high5:

 

....more like Sweden than Russia. But not really like Sweden either. There are no comparisons here, we are going into uncharted territory.

 

bold prediction

 

Gold ended 2008 at around $875. I think it will end 2009 higher. But it could go anywhere between now and then. The hedge funds can play with the price through the futures market, but in the end, fundamentals will prevail.

 

Hey you guys are right about those quick pick lottery tickets! There goes my whole economic analysis... :hammer:

PS: Can you tell I don't play the lottery?

 

Just my buck three-eighty on this...

If you're not totally out of the market pretty soon then you might as well jump off a tall building. The DOW is headed to 3,000 or lower (I know Jay Leno says 6,000, but he's way too high).

 

I sure hope not

 

What exactly would give you that indication at this point? Many large companies are more than likely not going to make it through 2009. They're going to go away and they won't be available to invest in anymore.

I think everybody has gotten way to use to quick fixes and expect this to be one as well. It wouldn't surprise me to see the dow hit the 4ks before this hits bottom.

We may not be going back to the economy we used to have for a long time. This was an inflated economy that RELIED HEAVILY on consumer loans and credit cards for people to have spending power, far beyond what they made. Now these places are reeling in credit lines, closing accounts, not offering loans and dropping customers.

They got burned bad and policies are probably going to change big time. The free money era could be over for a long time. With people finally getting back to what may be called reasonable spending habits with credit far more limited, I would not expect to see the stock market come roaring back any time soon. Without consumer spending like we had, everything grinds to a halt. As we've seen, it branches out and touches all sectors. Not to mention all the existing debt sitting out there that finally has to be dealt with or all the people who have lost jobs and devastated their credit. These people are done buying. The housing crisis isn't going away. We'll be feeling that for a long time to come. The government can try to absorb it and make it disappear, but it doesn't just disappear. Somebody loses big time.

This is more than an economic downturn, just waiting for summer to get here. I'd have to say this is more like a once in a century event. They'll either straighten it out with stimulus or not. We've got a 50/50 chance. Trying to be optimistic about it doesn't physically fix the mess.

As for gold? Who knows? Wildly unpredictable and nothing would surprise me. Everything has gone down 2 days in a row. Stocks, PMs, oil. Everything simultaneously goes down on a regular basis. I don't have an explanation. Maybe someone else does.

But, I would very highly doubt that after seeing what gold has done and the still fresh anticipation of where it could be headed as a result of the inflation we are now facing......I highly doubt there's going to be anyone willing to let an ounce of gold go for less than 800 throughout 2009. And I think even that is wishful thinking. Simply wishing for it to go lower "just because", is a pipe dream, IMO. I see no reason for why it would crash. More indicators that it will increase than decrease if not just over the speculation. People are going to hold. Even if it dropped to 500 I don't see many people willing to dump at that level. Not now after sustaining 900-1000 for this long. More than likely, I say it will sustain around that range most of the year. Then next year could get real interesting.

 

For those of you who like to keep score on the banks, here's an update, by state, that's a week stale:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-Failed_Banks-sort.html

 

It will be uncomfortable for a lot of people, many will have to retrain and enter new industries (and I agree that that sucks). But the world is not coming to an end. As for the Dow at 4000, I just do not see that happening. You can bring back this thread if I am wrong.

 

It's called ........correction.

 

Or before the bank hits the fan:

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/ss_home.asp

It is a bit of a pain to use, but an interesting read if you have money in these institutions.

 

Gold's buying power is always about the same though,

Gold's buying power is always about the same though!
When gold was $20oz. it would buy a very nice men's suit, top of the line.
Today that same oz. of gold equivalent, will buy you a very nice men's suit.
This is not my line but a read it someplace and it sort holds true.