how big will the 2009 gold bust be?

I'd say we hit a low of $750 during 2009

 

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With the Obama Stimulus Package that will be Passed we will pump huge amounts of Money into the system trying to fend off a depression. While this may take time to work, the short term inflation senario will be a run to gold for asset protection and infaltion hedge as it has always done in the past.

I think we have seen the low for Gold the last few months for the short to near term of 1-3 years.
I may be wrong, but that is what I think....

God help us all if his plan does not work!!


RickieB

 

Low of $600 this year, before spiking into the end of the year when the economy starts recovering.

 

Yeah and if it goes that low ($600, $750) how much you wanna bet that you won't be able to lay your hands on any of the physical stuff. The only thing that will sell is paper.....

 

If price is heading lower, you will be able to get your hands on some if you want....

I am sure apmex will still be around, and worst case... call me, and can get you some from the comex or our bullion desk who deals direct with mints and dealers.

right now I am just dollar cost averaging silver eagles and such as well as platinum.... gold a bit overpriced in the short term.... but as soon as it gets lower, I will be loading up on gold.

 

FYI, the economy won't be recovering any time soon. Some of you need to get to know Peter Schiff.

 

I hope gold goes low for a little bit soon. I dont have enough yet for it to go high!

 

A year ago with gold around $900, the "Experts" were predicting that gold would hit $1200 by the end of 2008. Six months ago it dropped into the $750s with the same prediction. Now it's bouncing around $930-$950 and trending up. The point is that no one can predict where it will go. Historically it tended to raise when the stock market was down. With the market in the tank now and no real indication that it's going to raise anytime soon, it's my considered, non-expert opinion that gold will rise to around $1000-$1100 and stay there for a while.

 

The talking heads are going on with their chicken little sky is falling stuff. The cliche is that once something is on the cover of Business Week it is already over and in this case the cliche is true. The crisis is going to wrap up in a couple of months, stocks will rise and gold will dump. On the other hand the exact opposite could happen (but I doubt it).

 

So, the bottom line is that it will go up. Or go down. Or stay the same...:rolling:

 

Let's talk again after a few more bank failures, and the government pumping more money into failing institutions like BofA and Citi.

 

Um.... we have already proped tons of banks, banks damn near socialised... and yet gold is now in the low 900's...

Trust me, Citi can fail at this point, and no one would think twice... because it is already baked in. This is not when the dow was 12k and lehman and bear going under. dow is at 6800, tons of bank failures, proped up by trillions in assets and government guarantees.

 

I do agree that there will be a "new normal" where the gov't treats banks and insurance companies like utilities, but we will move on from that just fine. In fact it should have been like that anyway.

 

How about the new $30 billion down the toilet after AIG?

 

Yup. whats another 30bil? =)

the reason behind not letting AIG go under is that they are the biggest insurer of credit default swaps.

I can tell you, the aig bailout money today did not even get anyone in the office excited today. all of the advisors here are too in shock here still about the dow breaking 7k, and what dumbfounded moves the administration makes today.

The problem is , in alot of cases, the companies are toooo big to fail.

AIG for instance, is the biggest insurer. If they go bust, a ton of life, disability, automotive, homeowner insurance policies will lapse. The state government would pick up the tab... and guess what... it would raise your taxes.

AIG was also the biggest insurer of bank debt... IE... Lehman owes JP mogran money, Lehman fails, AIG is the insurer on the debt... they owe the money.

As much as all of these banks deserve to fail, the government made alot of dumb moves in easy lending.... now we got to pay the piper. You dont want to pay the piper? Fine... god forbid you get into a car accident, or someone passes away... AIG had your insurance policy? Sorry, AIG went bust, you get no payment on it.

With smaller banks, and we had two fail over the weekend (taken over by FDIC), or cases like indymac, there would be limited shock to the market. With bigger corporations, saying a bank failed, has more consequences, in particular who the insurer on their debt is. For all intensive purposes,

Bear Sterns, Fannie, Freddie, Mer. Lynch, Wachovia, Citi, WAMU, AIG all failed.

But because they did not declare official bankruptcy and were either taken over by government, or forced to merge, their debt is still being serviced, and the credit default swaps do not have to be paid out.

:hatch:

 

btw, read the other post i have on gold, updatedit today as to why gold is down yet again.

In short, people have to liquidate it for liquidity.

 

I don't even blink my eye at that. They will break that giant down into several smaller companies each with a special relationship to Uncle Sam. In the long run having a not for profit insurance sector will benefit all.

 

update from today's investment newsletter.

Turning to gold, we were fortunate to recommend…
rather strongly we think, for we highlighted the idea in
yellow in yesterday’s text and then reiterated it strongly
in the “Recommendation” section of our commentary.
We were… and we are… fearful that the public is
rather aggressively long of gold and that the margin
clerks are in control as they issue liquidation orders to
sell anything and everything. Gold, having rallied, was
one obvious place that liquidity and profits could be
taken, and so gold became… at least to us… a rather
obvious target for selling. It remains a target this
morning, and we fear that the uptrend on the short
term charts (the hourly one, for those who are
interested) is more and more vulnerable to the
downside, rather than less and less. The simple fact is
that the bull run that began in mid-January at or very
near to $800/oz, became egregiously over-bought as
spot gold approached, and finally broke through,
$1000. A mere correction back into “The Box” which
marks the 50-62% retracement of that bull run shall
take spot gold back down to the $880-905 area. That
shall be our target on the downside, and it is where we
shall return as aggressive buyers of gold. By then, the
public’s love affair with gold shall have had its passion
dulled… perhaps greatly. By then, relative health will
have been restored to the market as the late bulls are
shaken from their positions. Patience… patience
everyone; patience.​

 

So will all the nationalised banking institutions, auto manufacturing institutions. Great, we are going to have a socialist economy, just like Russia's. And in case you haven't noticed, they have phenomenally awful lately with the downturn in oil.

 

What would Glen Beck say?