In some instances, worst case scenario information is very useful. I agree that it is impossible to devise a hard and fast rule concerning how skewed the populations might be.
You'd think with digitalization and modern scanning techniques, plus sharing of information between the 2 big TPGs, that they could eliminate the extra counting.
I agree with everything but the last sentence. Some folks want the highest grade coin, with the most exclusivity. It isn't necessarily irrational or warranted? That is up to the people doing the buying, and not to us--unless we are in that game to play.
PCGS secure plus might be able to help, but this is only available at more expensive tiers and was implemented far too late in the game to save the population reports. Now, CAC is doing a fairly good job (or at least it appears) of updating its census. Also, crackout artists will already have the coin in its preferred plastic before sending it to CAC in many if not most cases. I believe the CAC census will be the one that is the most accurate in the next 5-10 years as more and more coins make it to CAC.
Morgan Experts: Without worrying about being accurate to the last $10 or whatever, can any of you just give me ballpark figures for what prices I should pay for the following Morgans ? Friend of a friend has a few, is either going to take them to LCS/Ebay/Craigslist (???) but me and another guy have first dibs: (1) 1883-CC or 1884-CC (not sure which) MS-66 - really nice coin. He has 3 of them, and 1 of them also has a CAC sticker. I think it's 1884 but it could be 1883, but either one should be similar in commonality. (2) 1879-S MS-65: Another common, not one of the rarer die types. Might also have it with CAC but I didn't see it in the photos he sent me, though he texted me it had it. (3) 1879-S MS-66 and MS-67: Same coin as above, but higher-rated. (4) GSA Commons: Has a few, all very common dates like above plus some others, MS-63 to MS-65. Some have the NGC wrapper but others DO NOT but have a graders estimate (LCS ?) for the specific serial number. I'm not sure who the grader was, he may have gotten them from someone who had his LCS give a grade on them because he didn't want to send them to NGC/PCGS. Or maybe the original owner knew a veteran coin guy who gave his opinion, dunno. $$$ are tight for me now, but no super-scarce dates that would cost thousands, I might be able to buy 1 or 2 of these. If he puts them up for sale online, I will let you all know.
We'd really have to see them. I mean I could shoot off some numbers, but I think it would be irresponsible, plus it wouldn't do you much good, unless you're just into collecting labels, which I know you're not.
Well, I know pretty much what the range is from Ebay and/or Heritage...I guess I'm more interested in knowing what you guys think is a GREAT price....an OK price....and a BAD price.
I collect GSA Morgans. I've thought about buying some non-CC's, but IMO, the prices being asked are too high. The 79-S Morgans can be had in high grades outside the GSA holders, so for me, I wouldn't buy choice 2 or 3 unless you got them for prices consistent with auction results outside the GSA holder. You'll pay some premium for an 83 or 84 CC in MS66 grade in the GSA. These are some of the most common GSA CC dates. Instead of buying that high of grade in that year, I would rather spend the money on a '78, '80, '81 or '85. You won't get a 66 in those dates, but you'll be able to get some nice 65's in '80 or '81 and 64's in the '78 and '85.
Awesome info, JPC......at this point in time, I want to buy a very-high rated common over a 63 somewhat-more scarce coin.
There are many to chose from GF1969. If you're going to get a GSA, get a CC though. 80/79 CC with a rev. of a '78 in MS63 would be a good choice. It might be more than you want to spend, but IMO, it has some staying power.
There are plenty of common GSAs that aren't CC's, right JPC ? When the GSA sold off their final 3 MM coins, anybody know how many of them were CC's ?? Right...because any coin, same rated, is going to cost MORE if it's still in the GSA packaging, even though a PCGS/NGC slab is smaller and more convenient ? Some ? I'm seeing HUGE. I see MS-66 1884 CCs and they are $700 - $900 in a slab, can you get them in a GSA for under $1,000 ? I see your point...you're saying go a bit lower in the grade but a bit more scarce on the year, right ? I do want to do this down the line....right now, I'm filling a general coin need which is that aside from a few modern coins I have nothing over MS-65 in my collection at all. Scratching an itch, I guess.
I actually do have a GSA.....1883 CC...I posted it in another thread and it's not graded but the guys/gals here said it looked like an MS-63. https://www.cointalk.com/threads/goldfingers-shiny-silver-friends.259136/#post-2078640 JPC, you said it looked like an MS-62 or 63, most of the other posters agreed with your range.
I bought this for my grandson and it was less than $80.00 pretty darn nice if you ask me The problem with Morgan dollars there are just to many of them. Ever time I go to a coin show the dealers are loaded with them.
Nice !! I have the same coin/grade but with a "PL" designation. Yeah, if gold ever takes off and silver lags, then maybe folks who can't afford Saints and Liberty's trade-down to William Jennings Bryan territory so they don't get crucified on a cross. [/QUOTE]
I don't know the exact number of CC's in GSA's. The non-CC's are being sold on eBay for quite a premium as you have seen and noted. I have a Morgan collection, including GSA's and I don't see the need for non-CC GSA Morgans. That's just me. One other note on GSA's. I like to get the box and COA when possible. I don't know what the future will hold, but all of my GSA's have seen nice price rises in the past couple years. Will that continue? Don't know. What I suspect is that the '78, '80, '81 & '85's will hold their value over the '82, '83 and '84's. Do you also post on the NGC site too?
Collectors Society -- is that run by NGC ? Yeah, I came over here when I got suspended for 2 weeks for some bogus infaction in the Water Cooler section !!!
I believe you're comparing "apples to oranges" in trying to compare St. Gaudens to CC Morgans. Since you've selected the St. Gaudens as your basis for evaluation, look for similar disparities in the 1907HR, 1908S, 1909/8, 1909D, 1913S, and many more. Decades ago when I thought I'd acquire a "mint state" 1889CC Morgan, I looked at the relative sales values of the 12x lower mintage $20 Gold for the same mint/year, and found that value pricing was at least half for the $20, relative to the Morgan. It took more than a decade to locate my avatar coin, but its cost was still half of a comparable Morgan. As Doug stated, I believe you'll find these pricing disparities amongst many desirable commodities/coins. Try locating a "mint state" early model Corvette. JMHO