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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;NorthKorea, post: 1988269, member: 29643&quot;]Kurt, I assume this thread is about to be locked, as seems to happen whenever I get involved in a conversation. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie2" alt=";)" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /> Anyway, I think the problem with the digital v Kodachrome situation is still one of resolution. In effect, the advantage of optimized film is that it essentially resolves to the same degree as the human eye/brain. By contrast, digital photography, though no longer in its infancy, hasn&#039;t reached that same level... though we&#039;re getting close.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now, back to the topic of consumption and why I view it from a sum of parts argument instead of looking at the individual industries. My educational background is in environmental economics with a base in macro-economic theory and the impact of developing economies on global supply chains. I used to think that the actual industries matter, since consumption patterns could change, but, over time, I&#039;ve come to realize that aggregating consumption works just as well (and requires a lot less research).</p><p><br /></p><p>I would no longer call myself a contrarian investor, as I can&#039;t say I&#039;m always contrary to what the herd believes. I actually find that extreme difficult to adhere to, since it leaves you at the whim of the herd, since your choices are in perpetual opposition to it. Instead, I&#039;ve taken on an arbitrageur mentality to investing: Look for obvious opportunities (AAA bond paper trading at C value, convertible stock paying 25% dividends for solid companies, commodities trading at deep discounts to inherent projected demand, etc) and be willing to take a 40-75% risk on them; Hedge whenever possible using insurance costing not more than 3% of your expected return to cap downside risk at 15% overall or 50% of expected gains; Don&#039;t be afraid to make your predictions public, even if your analysis isn&#039;t entirely so.</p><p><br /></p><p>The last one keeps me accountable to the first one. It also prevents me from going all-in on &quot;sure things,&quot; since finance is still a very much unregulated industry, regardless of what regulators and the media may tell us.</p><p><br /></p><p>Hopefully you don&#039;t decide to leave, but you&#039;ve drawn your line in the sand. It&#039;s up to hubris now to determine your actions from here out.</p><p><br /></p><p>The main reason that PM writers include coinage and stored PMs into their demand construct is that it suits their needs. Most (I&#039;d say all, but there might be one out there that is really not self-motivated) of the major PM &quot;analysts&quot; who get referenced by hoarders/stackers are either brokering PMs or running PM funds. This is why I sometimes stop listening the moment someone refers to &quot;Eric Sprott&quot; in their argument. It&#039;s like having a debate on religion and saying &quot;It&#039;s true because the leader of my religious community/organization says so.&quot;</p><p><br /></p><p>On a completely separate note, I was watching TV the other day and saw a commercial for copper shirts. Now, I grew up watching my grand-aunt and grand-mother making penny bracelets and simply thinking it was a ridiculous thing. When I saw the Titanium tape in the 90s, I also thought it was a silly product. I&#039;d use it, but more for reducing friction than anything else. Is there any actually scientific basis for the copper shirts or is this a case of Western marketing finally catching up to Asian folklore? Oh, and to bring this back on topic, I view this type of consumption (alternative medicine) of a commodity as a fad. However, I don&#039;t account for its impact on aggregated consumption until it accounts for more than 7% of total consumption or 50% of incremental growth in production. At that point, similar to how &quot;investment&quot; or &quot;coinage&quot; of PMs consumption growth as a category worries me, I&#039;d get concerned.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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