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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;NorthKorea, post: 1570130, member: 29643&quot;]You clearly stated in the first post of the thread that you expect premiums to start rising due to depleting inventories. The point others have been making is that premiums and sales inventory numbers don&#039;t have a causal relationship. Premiums are essentially dictated by cost basis. Since retailers use hedging strategies to minimize risk exposure due to cost basis, the retail sector doesn&#039;t influence premiums as much as it may have in the past.</p><p><br /></p><p>Depleting inventories, if anything, would show a correlation to lower anticipated premiums in the future. After all, if a retailer expected premiums to rise, they would buy more, since the premium spread (discounted for time) is essentially their profitability gauge. So, even in a scenario where we assume causality, the relationship is inverse to what you originally stated when you started the thread.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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