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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1569156, member: 41665&quot;]As I showed on another thread, 2012 Summer Seasonality was normal, November is statistically &amp; historically the most BULLISH month (~ +3%), and big hurricanes are typically followed by a strong positive UP month for Gold. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I agree. <b>This year looks different.</b> Why? </p><p><br /></p><p>The NY Gold market decline following Hurricane Irene should be a major ABERRATION ; assuming it&#039;s not, a <u>new trend</u> (Superstorm Retracement) would suggest Gold&#039;s ~ -7% Decline is imminent. </p><p><br /></p><p>Severe guess? Better too harsh than optimistic, and I don&#039;t think a -15% retrace should freak out the prudent, defensive, and long-term PM holders. </p><p><br /></p><p>Based on recent POG declines, average retrace (-14.8%) from the recent peak of $1,791 (10/4/2012) ... POG at ~$ 1,525. over the next 12 to 16 weeks. </p><p>Less severe, -11.8% &gt; $ 1,580. Low in Late February or so. </p><p><br /></p><p>The unknown of the new Adminstration might push it out (mid-March) but US stocks should be sideways-up if Wall St. likes Mitten: call it &#039;portfolio rebalancing.&#039; Bullish bets (NYSE)? HII, CNRD, LMT, NOC, BA, GD, RTN, UTX, LLL</p><p><br /></p><p>otoh, <i>if we get a repeat of Florida 2000 </i>in +3 states I think there will be blood: bigger declines on uncertainty. SHORT THE PIG, head to cash, etc.</p><p><br /></p><p>There I&#039;ve read my tea-leaves, exogenous events unfactored here, invest at your own Risk, yadda-yadda.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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