Guess the Mintage of the 2012 San Francisco Two Coin Proof Set

there are more than 10,000 dealers across the country. and they can buy what even amount they want. beside that. they have bulk discount or dealer discount attached. i think the mintage will be very high. but the premium is zero. the average ASE proof series is around 800,000 to 900,000 strong. this prove that there are many ASE collectors.

 

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I understand that a lot of people like ASE's. I'm thinking that they will have over average sales for the next six days but it won't be over 10k a day. It is 4th of July week and many folks are on vacation. Plus, the price is $150 a pop. I'm sticking with my revised guess of 235k.

 

It's still a nice set to own, but I think that I will order one of the PF/70 ~ Reverse PF/70 sets from Modern Coin Mart at $229 plus $6 shipping. I will get 70's for shure, no problems from a good seller.

 

well, it is the lst weekend, and people just got paid. I can see a 10k/day average pop over the weekend, then maybe 10-15k average for the weekdays. But yeah, this thing should come in at below 250k.

And yeah, like mentioned earlier, there's the 4th of july holiday, and many are all on vacation. I dont think dealers will be a big factor because they'd have put their orders in already. If you're a dealer, why would you wait until the very last second to put orders in. That will just mean you'll be late to the grading and selling game.

 

ModernCoinMart is even offering free shipping on these for the time being. Also, they will send you the original packaging, if you request it.

 

How does MCM even know enough of their coins will even grade ms70?

 

Big submitter.......pays big bucks.......gets some (lots of) consideration.......

You and I, on the other hand, roll the dice.

 

I don't know for sure, but maybe they are working from the percentage of the coins in the 2011 set that graded 70. That percentage was pretty high. Also, John Maben, the owner of ModernCoinMart used to be a grader for NGC, so maybe he is working on instinct. Finally, NGC is right down the street from ModernCoinMart, so
maybe they will walk down and tell NGC how many 70s they would like to have. I am not trying to be cynical, but I think it is within the realm of possibility, since there is such little difference between the 2 grades.

 

If I was a big fan of graded coins, which I am not, the ModernCoinMart deal is really not that bad when you consider the cost of grading, the cost of shipping both ways to a TPG, free shipping by ModernCoinMart and the fact you are being guaranteed to receive 70-graded coins. Just looking at what the reverse proof 70-grades are selling for from the 2006 and 2011 sets, it's a pretty sweet deal.

 

Nothing wrong with a little cynicism now and then 'Hugger. It keeps ya safe from time to time.......

 

A other thing the grading company's could be doing is holding back 70 worthy coins to 69 on a % of orders from the average person to keep that number artificially low but not doing so with the large dealers.

 

I think it looks pretty bad that the dealers seem to know that they will have a certain amount of 70's.

 

Buy enough and you'll know it too with the quality the mint makes today.

 

yup it's not exactly rocket science, for the most part it seems like with modern collectibles as long as your coins don't come out of the packaging during shipping you will get about 75% of the coins you order as 70's from what I have experienced. So if you buy 10 sets of these, I would expect 7-8 sets of 70's and a few sets of 69's if you sent them all in. The nice thing about this issue is that the coins are unique so you will have a chance to cherry pick which ones you send in... i'm gonna stab a guess that the TPG numbers for 70's will be about 9/1 or 9 PF70's to every 1 PF69~

$.02~

 

It's interesting how narrow the price spread is on this set between the 69s and the 70s; only $20.00 a coin. Maybe if the 69s have a lower population than the 70s, they will end up being worth more later on. According to the theory of rarity, that's how it should logically be; right? That would be funny.

 

Perhaps we're seeing the begining of the end of the 70's fad? The beanie babies comes to mind when I think of modern 70's. I wouldn't want to be the last one left holding the bag on a hundred dollar plus ordinary mint state or proof graded ASE that I believe will someday be worth perhaps a tad over melt.

 

That's not been my experience. If I think a modern commem is a real winner, I think long and hard about the source and grade and return policy...much like a collector of a classic. Sure, there may be a fine line between 69s and 70s, but I've seen plenty which wouldn't make 69.

 

I never sent anything in to be graded so i never knew the ratio was that high. I will be ordering 10 of these sets so it might be worth it for me to cherry pick the best ones? Even if i get a MS69 back i can use it as a guide when grading my next batch. Do you use NGC or PCGS?

 

I used NGC a few years ago when I submitted 4 2009 gold buffalo proofs and a 2009 UHR double eagle and everything came back a 70 except 1 buffalo which scored a 69. Next time I submit I will send them to PCGS as I feel they are a bit stricter, but the market reflects that as tylically PCGS certified coins are 10%+ higher then the competitions...

 

If you're submitting as a crapshoot, blindly, I dont think it's that high, and especially not that high with pcgs. And it does depend on the condition of the coin. Any nick on the rim or break in the field will downgrade it to a 69. Worse will put it at a 68.

That being said, these coins should all be graded pretty highly because you can cherrypick what you're submitting.