Guess the Mintage of the 2012 San Francisco Two Coin Proof Set

And there are those that would argue that this has revealed just how thin the collector base is for ASE types. I say the jury is permanently out on that front.

 

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Only 564 ordered in the last 3 hours.
I believe the total includes mail orders, too.
From the mint's site: "

Data for cumulative total units ordered is an approximation of total units ordered from the Unites States Mint through all of its active sales channels."​

[TABLE="width: 250"]


Daily
Cumulative

Date
Sales
Sales

[TD="align: right"]6/8/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85,341[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/9/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]6/10/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]6/11/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29,718[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]115,019[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/12/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,245[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]121,304[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/13/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,067[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]125,371[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/14/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,169[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]128,540[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/15/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,972[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]131,512[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/16/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]6/17/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]6/18/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,956[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]135,468[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/19/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1,210[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]136,678[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/20/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2,185[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]138,863[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/21/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,029[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]141,892[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/22/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3,281[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]145,173[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/23/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]6/24/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]6/25/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,874[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]152,047[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/26/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,522[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]156,569[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/27/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6,012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]162,581[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/28/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4,255[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]166,836[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/29/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8,752[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]175,588[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]6/30/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]7/1/2012[/TD]



[TD="align: right"]7/2/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]25,471[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]201,059[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7/3/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16,292[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]217,351[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7/4/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27,780[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]245,131[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7/5/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5,607[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]250,738[/TD]

[TD="align: right"]7/6/2012[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]564[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]251,302[/TD]
[/TABLE]

 

Hate to play devils advocate, even though I do like the mintage and believe it will appreciate over time. Unlike the 2011 set, everyone that wanted a 2012 set bought one and more. The initial number of offerings, if proportionate to the 2011 set, will be significant, with lower demand. So, you may see a significant drop off in price, from sellers that need to sell. Then again, the opposite may occur, if few ordered muliples. Sure would be nice to know the average number ordered per customer, like they gave us for the 2011 set.

 

That average would be skewed by the MCM and Paradise mint type of buyer.

 

True, but a high average would mean many will be on the market. Dosen't look like the big buyers went all out on this set, probably not willing to gamble on a set with unlimited mintage.

 

http://mintnewsblog.com/2012/07/san-francisco-silver-eagle-set-sales-reach-251302/ mint news blog always comes through with good coverage ---- July 6, 2012 564(today) 251,302(total)

 

man I'm good :yes:

 

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=0&_kw=san+francisco+coin+silver+set

trading at e-bay right now.

 

I admit- I am quite surprised by those prices

 

Lot o' wishin' and hoping with some of them prices......

 

I think alot of the sellers on ebay don't know how low the mintage was. Also, I think I'll be flipping one of my sets for alot more than I originally thought. Not only that, I bet more than one of them sellers on ebay gets their @ss in a sling for not wanting to deliver the coins for say $192 a set. Especially when the prices start going up. Below is a simply auction for 2 sets and it's already past expected prices. I think we scored!!! And you will soon see the prices going through the roof.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2-2012-S-San-Francisco-American-Silver-Eagle-2-Coin-Proof-Sets-/300737637600?pt=Coins_US_Individual&hash=item46055c2ce0

 

Don't believe the (your own) hype. The numbers are cumulative and not final, just as that article you linked to suggests and the Mint warns you to be cautious about assuming.

 

In what way? Too low? Too high? Either way, it's eBay, no surprise to me. I'm surprised you're surprised.

 

Lets not dredge up that old Felix and Oscar routine......

 

If MCM amongst other companies playing the opportunistic flip can do it, why can't all the rest! LOL!

 

Danr tries, but while he's minding the numbers and dreaming of opportunities, someone has to mind the reality for him, too. Modern Mint products and the relatively brief window of 'opportunity' they occassionally present produces more junk than rewards. Too many 'collectors' these days collect by mintage statistics, which we see sting many soon after the new-ness of the product fades, the mintage is exceeded or underwhlems and the numismtic press presses the hobbyist to believe after the fact that low demand on a modern coin no longer available from the Mint, warrants sudden premium due to a relatively smaller mintage figure when compared to some other manufactured NIFC collectible. These forums see all kinds of cheerleaders and I comment thus to point out there is an opposite to the pom pom waving. Collectors can and should exercise caution and restraint in buying just anything new churned out and within one's budget range. Collectors ought to weigh the meaning of the piece in their collection rather than just citing potential value due to perceived low mintage figures. What's a low mintage figure in US modern coins is abundant and gross supply overload compared to other world Mint's modern product offerings. So be cautious and remember why you are collecting (buying) what you collect. :thumb:

 

Good advice Chris. Modern guys got's to be some of the purest collectors out there because in most cases they're collecting for the love of it and not thinking of a monetary gain by flippin'. That's not to say this 'modern guy' ain't flipped a few flap jacks.....

 

I'm in no way against collecting modern US Mint products. Just wanting to point to the other side of the proverbial coin, and caution those who easily can be swayed by hype and marketing of 'limited' nature of manufactured collectibles. That purity is easily usurped by how hype is spun, both from marketing as well as from stirred collectors clamouring to acquire something perceived hot, new and limited to the opposite of their purest intentions.

 

You may have some more flap jacks to flip with this 2012 set. I'd say we all got in on the ground floor on this one and there's a good chance we could make a little profit. There's absolutely no reason why this set will not sell for good money. I won't predict anymore as I already got my predictions up and running. Time will tell.

 

Krispy you push the case to an extreme. Some moderns can make you a bit of money if you are astute.