Gold vs Silver in the long hall

I never claim to have any insight or wisdom Inflexion, just an opinion. In my opinion, what worries me a little on silver long term is the Implied investment and coin production numbers. Those are going straight up, but I would consider a large amount of the coins to effectively be bullion, as they trade as if it is. Pretty soon these numbers will represent an entire years worth of production, sitting inventory that could hit the market at any time a better opportunity in the eyes of the investors come along. Also, the industrial usage hasn't shown what the usage will be after producer hedges expire and they have to start paying 30+ an ounce. Another member here has stated that is company that uses silver has redoubled their efforts to salvage as much as possible, even for operations that have no easy alternative. Some industries may have a lower cost alternative.

That is the negative in my eyes. I still love silver, still buy silver coins regardless the price, and still think long term it will hold its value. I just worry it may be a little bubblish short term, (next couple of years). It will probably still go up from here, but I have so much today I will not be buying at todays prices. Your arguments for silver were 1000% right in my eyes just a few years ago, but the market has since corrected.

Like I said, just an opinion, and most others here will probably have a different one.

Chris

 

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Indeed the points I am making are forward thinking and may not (probably won't) be realized in the short term. I am not as concerned about the rise in investment demand because I feel it is warranted, and I also feel (opinion / gut alert =) that the majority of silver investments are scattered throughout the average person and not consolidated into the hands of big players as gold is. So the amount of investors in a position to dump physical silver on the market in my mind is much less than those who could do the same with gold. With silver being such a thin market I would like to think we will see better prices at some point. You are also right about a few years ago that things changed when mine production finally began exceeding demand after that was not the case for over 50 years, but according to demand projections by the Silver Institute we may only have a couple more years left before it swings back the other way again. However, if the economy significantly retracts, then those projections are off as well, but ultimately silver's dual monetary and industrial roles are what draws me.

 

The only thing that I am certain of is that silver is more volatile than gold. Silver might have more upside potiential and can go up more quickly than gold but silver can also go down just as fast. As long as you have this printing of $'s continuing (i.e. QE2, QE3, etc.), then gold and silver will continue to go up in the future.

 

I agree with you 100% that Silver will outperform Gold over the next fews years.
I buy silver simply because I can't afford to buy gold.I buy what I can afford and what makes me feel good.I recently bought 100 Silver Maples coins and feel like I have something.
Another thing overlooked, is the gold-silver ratio in the 1800's which was 15-1.
If this ratio were applied today with gold at $1600., silver should be priced at $100-105 per oz.

 

TRUE gold wont bring you a crop. but fertile farmland and seeds will!

 

Don't you mean fertile farmland and Monsanto seeds?

 

haha. yeah I forgot about this

 

That sign pretty much says it all..................

 

Monsanto.............the most evil corporation on the face of the planet.

 

Well, I can still afford to trade in silver. The price of Gold limits what I can do and takes the fun out of the trading for me. I mean with 2K, I can buy and sell quite a few silver coins on eBay or wherever, but I cannot do that with gold. I get my enjoyment from building a collection or set. Gold is out of my range right now, so I am forced to stay with Silver.

gary

 

Silver Shortage

There may or may not be a shortage of the metal, I don't know I am not a mining anyalist.
There is however a shortage of available bullion coins.
Last time I wanted to purchase 100 1 oz silver maples, I made several phone calls to several dealers and banks only to find out they were sold out.
When I did find a bank to buy from, I had to wait 2 weeks just to place my order then another 2 weeks to receive my order.
The box my coins arrived in, had the initials of another bank on it, indicating the bank I bought from had to do some behind the scenes dealing just to fill my order.
Many buyers of the metal now are not influenced by the doomsday letters and conspiracy theories but by the reality that there is no safe haven for their hard earned money.

Just my opinion..................