Gold vs silver 2019

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by myownprivy, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. myownprivy

    myownprivy Well-Known Member

    Gold's low for the year was $1167. Today, August 14, it is $1527. It is up 24.6%

    Silver's low for the year was $13.86. Today, 8/14, it is $17.24. It is up 19.7%.

    Gold has out performed silver substantially this year. Gold also has a significantly lower premium than silver (as discussed elsewhere in dozens of other threads) so if you bought entirely in 2019 at average premiums, you could realize a much greater profit on gold than silver.

    Gold is looking like the winner again.
    fretboard likes this.
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  3. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Nearly everything's been a winner over silver for the past eight years or so, just because it had such a monster bubble in 2011. Silver demand also is tied more to industrial activity, as opposed to pure admiration/worship. :rolleyes:

    Premium I think depends on transaction size (and, of course, dealer). Any transaction has a certain fixed amount of overhead (arranging delivery and inspection, etc.), and some overhead proportional to the amount of material (counting/inspecting/authenticating each coin). Since gold is more "value-dense" than silver, that overhead's higher for silver, and that translates to bigger spreads.
  4. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    All those years that I pulled silver out of boxes of bank rolls prior to the "bubble", I never once found a gold coin.

    Histman likes this.
  5. myownprivy

    myownprivy Well-Known Member

    It sure does suck to be young. I wonder if there are any members old enough here to have been able to get gold from the bank? Probably not, but I bet there are members who were given US gold at holidays much like people gave Peace and Morgans at holidays in the 60s, 70s, etc.
  6. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Meh. It would've been nice to be able to pull gold or silver rarities from circulation. Heck, for me, it would've been nice to be able to buy chemistry-set stuff without everybody thinking I'm Walter White or a mad bomber.

    But I dreamed for decades of the device that's sitting in front of me right now, not to mention the portable version in my pocket. I'd hate to have been born earlier, because then I'd have less time to appreciate what we've got now...
  7. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

    Ah, how true.

    On the flipside however, consider that most people today seem to appreciate more things far less than others who appreciated fewer things far more so many years ago . . .
  8. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    But, shouldn't that make one appreciate even more the information that was gathered and dispersed by more primitive means? Phones, letters, libraries and personal contact....that was it!

  9. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    And it was awful.

    Before home Internet, before the Web, I subscribed to magazines for my various hobbies. It was expensive; inflation-adjusted, it was probably more expensive than my current (overpriced) Internet service, and I could never subscribe to as many as I wanted. I'd keep them around so I could refer back to them.

    I still have many of those magazines. They're in boxes, and they occupy tens of feet of shelf space. If I'd had to keep using magazines as information sources, and given my increased buying power as a professional, I'd be unable to get into my house by now.
  10. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    Roll them up and sell them as logs for the fireplace.

    Kentucky likes this.
  11. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Better that than waiting for them to fuel a house fire, I know.
  12. Bman33

    Bman33 Well-Known Member

    As far as 2019 performance gold is king and will remain. Silver though has showed some life lately so it could get a spike in there, and maybe break $20. I will sell some at 20. Gold I am selling a little here and there. Going to trade tomorrow an ounce for silver. And then sell an ounce for cash. Gotta keep it interesting.
  13. myownprivy

    myownprivy Well-Known Member

    Yeah, me, too. I would definitely sell a bunch of silver at $20 just to finally rid myself of the stuff I don't want taking up space.
    Bman33 likes this.
  14. EdThelorax

    EdThelorax Well-Known Member

    It's just like 2003 all over again. Gold will stall, silver won't. Silver will be 25 and gold 1500-1700 in 6-9 months. That will put the GSR 60-70. That is highly probable from what i see in the charts. The psychology sure feels the same to me.
  15. masterswimmer

    masterswimmer Well-Known Member

    For selfish reasons I would love to see the GSR at 70. 60 would make me giddy. As of right now the GSR is 88.

    Your #'s are lofty. Hope you're right. Only question, what do your crystals give as a timeframe for this reversal?
  16. green18

    green18 Unknown member Sweet on Commemorative Coins Supporter

    Oh dear Jesus, I'm weary of this stuff. Buy it you want to, otherwise, sit on your hands........f
  17. Rono

    Rono Senior Member

    Howdy folks,

    Currently, the rise in both metals is tied to global uncertainty - trade war, BREXIT, Hong Kong, Crazy . . . WTF ever. Our issue is to make some money on this situation. That said, I'm on a momentum play that's covering both but concentrated in the junior silver miners. That's where the leverage has always been for me. Back in the late 70's when the Hunt Bros were dinking around, gold went up 2-3 x while silver went up 10x. Pretty much similar results during the Big Bonanza with gold rising some 6x while silver went up 10x. Right now in addition to physical pm's, but play centers around Kootenay and Impact while covering the squares with the ETF SILJ. Long time core holdings are TGLDX and PRPFX. Actually thinking about CEF but good grief, make sure it's in an exempt account because the taxes issues are nasty.

    As for silver while I realize that G/S ratio talk drives some of you crazy, it's still relevant to me. Historically, the G/S ratio was fixed around 1-17. Even with deregulation and 'free' market forces, in my humble opinion, 1-89 seems a bit out of whack. One guy I talked with years back had the opinion, you simply always bought gold and silver in the very ratio that the G/S ratio was. That would tell us to buy 1 oz of gold for every 89 oz. of silver. If and when it adjusts, we change our buying scheme.

    That all said, I think this is the start of another run.

    and so it goes,


    yakpoo likes this.
  18. myownprivy

    myownprivy Well-Known Member

    For all of these quacks talking about the gold silver ratio, I would just love for one of you to actually express why we should care about the difference between gold and silver. In your answer, please explain how current 2019 factors might impact that ratio differently than the past and tell us why would should still worry about the difference in price between the two metals. Go...
    You will be graded on your answer.
    yakpoo likes this.
  19. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Gold and silver were similarly valued in the West, so therefore a gold/silver ratio was somewhat tied to relative scarcity. The modern world has blown this up completely. Now you have massive deposits of copper being mined which by definition throw out silver. You have more than half the world demand for gold that cares NOTHING of silver. I was just in Thailand for three weeks. NO ONE there invests in silver. If they have silver at all, it is cheap jewelry for children or offering bowls. EVERYONE there owns gold. I could not find one lick of platinum either. My mother in law had never heard of platinum when my wife showed her the new platinum wedding ring I bought her.

    So, gold silver ration was a thing historically when "the world" as we knew it all valued them both. Now "the world" of PM buying highly disproportionately values gold only, the ratio is not irrelevant. Might as well talk about a "big mac to Ford F150" ratio, it would have just as much validity today.
    -jeffB likes this.
  20. imrich

    imrich Supporter! Supporter

    That's at least 2 of us, but I often refer to Coin Prices, which indicated all mintages, and was believed more accurate for pricing than other resources.

    The magazines were a valuable directory for resources, value, and availability. I actually believe they were more valuable than "biased" Google et al, where I can't even locate a resource for many of the rare Numismatic treasures I acquired.

    Those magazines and "Mother Earth News et al" gave us a window to the real world.

    My heirs are going to really wonder what was the insanity of the past generations. LOL

  21. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    In other words, spend equal amounts on gold and silver. I guess that's analogous to dollar-cost averaging.

    With the ratio at its current level, though, either you're going to be buying some small-fraction gold at high premiums, or you're going to be swimming in silver.
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