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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1154785, member: 3011"]I'm not sure that the person in #1 of your examples belongs in the stock market at all, even with dollar cost averaging. DCA can't protect a person from terrible investment choices.</p><p><br /></p><p>As for #2, I would venture to guess that many if not most people using DCA won't invest anyway when the market is in free fall. They will skip a payment or make some other modification that will make the long term return even worse than the expected return.</p><p><br /></p><p>And what might even be worse, the person using DCA might become overconfident in the technique. And after using it for a number of years, if the market suddenly falls, the investor could lose an enormous amount of money compared to the small monthly contribution. I think very few people who are not fairly advanced in investment knowledge could stand the loss or are mentally prepared for it. If someone putting in $100 per month for a decade or more suddenly loses $6,000, the strain will be enormous. They are more likely to cash out whatever remains than to throw more money into it.</p><p><br /></p><p>So I don't like dollar cost averaging for the psychological reasons as well as the operational ones. Look what happened to many people investing this way in their 401ks. They've largely been crushed over the past few years from cashing out at the lows.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1154785, member: 3011"]I'm not sure that the person in #1 of your examples belongs in the stock market at all, even with dollar cost averaging. DCA can't protect a person from terrible investment choices. As for #2, I would venture to guess that many if not most people using DCA won't invest anyway when the market is in free fall. They will skip a payment or make some other modification that will make the long term return even worse than the expected return. And what might even be worse, the person using DCA might become overconfident in the technique. And after using it for a number of years, if the market suddenly falls, the investor could lose an enormous amount of money compared to the small monthly contribution. I think very few people who are not fairly advanced in investment knowledge could stand the loss or are mentally prepared for it. If someone putting in $100 per month for a decade or more suddenly loses $6,000, the strain will be enormous. They are more likely to cash out whatever remains than to throw more money into it. So I don't like dollar cost averaging for the psychological reasons as well as the operational ones. Look what happened to many people investing this way in their 401ks. They've largely been crushed over the past few years from cashing out at the lows.[/QUOTE]
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