Gold premiums

I don't remember that thread or what exactly was said. For those there are a lot of variables. Straight from the mint with their premiums, probably not the best play for most of them. Paying a big premium for most probably not the best play like expecting a massive numismatic uptick. But with small premiums they will always have the gold content and at least there is a possible upside even if the demand is likely to never come.

Any government issued piece isn't a bad play around melt if you like it and want it. Worst case you have a bullion round which is what you bought it as anyway

 

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Interesting thread. And deals on 1oz. AGEs can be had almost any weekend on eBay from Apmex, as well as other reliable dealers. Apmex earlier this month had a $40 above melt special on gold Buffaloes.

I save my firepower for the 1 oz and avoid the fractionals.

 

In my mind, I compare the $5 and $10 gold modern commems to $5 and $10 common date libs. There is a $40 to $75 premium on AU libs compared to modern commems. True....the libs are older, but they contain the exact same amount of gold. And the commems have limited mintages compared to the libs.

Stacking strategy says buy the commems.

 

You can always melt it down if somebody doesn't believe you, and that is when you'll be glad you didn't pay a premium. Somebody else said to whack these with a hammer, but melting is just as good.

I don't like 1 oz coins as it is. Gold premiums are already ultra low compared to silver, and so I prefer 1/4 oz pieces. Keep enough diversity in your stack, and you'll always have a buyer for something.

 

Melting costs money. Very few people can do that themselves

 

Here is what is wrong with 1 oz. coins ; the cause paralysis in a down market. Gold peaked at what $1875ish? While its going up you are fine , when it peaks and starts down you don't have any idea if its just a dip so hardly anyone sold out from 1875 down to 1700 but they started to get nervous if they had a stack of 1 oz coins. Because they now were going to lose 200 on each coin at least , so you sat there like a deer in the headlights , a lot of folks waited and watched all the way down to 1400 before they started unloading. If you had tenths , 20 francs 1/4 ounce coins etc. you could rebalance into some other investment a little at a time by selling off fractions of an ounce with a lot less psychological pain.

Incidentally , the same thing happens with 1000 and 100 oz silver bars. There were plenty of saps that got stuck with 1000 oz. bars in 1981 that still had them decades later, some of those idiots didn't sell when silver ran up and probably still have them today. They pat themselves on the back at the low premiums per ounce when they buy but you can tell by looking at them when they are underwater they start to look a little green around the gills.

There is no feeling quite like buying an ounce of gold at 400 , then seeing it hit almost 1900 and then missing the peak and never pulling the trigger.

 

Mostly_Broncos GETS IT. One further point: liquidity. The number of buyers for ounce-coins is vastly less than for $5 commems or French/Swiss 20 francs or Mexican 2 Peso, etc.

True, it probably won't matter to a coin shop, but it WILL matter when you need food, gas, clothing, toilet paper, whatever, and have nothing but big coins to deal with. Same with silver: dimes, not ASE's. THINK about your strategy; THINK about why you bought gold in the first place: to hold some of your wealth in a form other than paper dollars, to buy essentials.

 

If you want to be a stacker , you have to consider that you will need to sell at some point or your heirs will . Too many stackers focus on the buying end. When you are only buying it seems like there are 1000's of places to buy especially in an uptrend. The stuff just flows at you like a river Selling into a down market is a whole different thing. Your 1 oz gold coins are going to get sold to a shop most likely and you are not going to love what they offer you so you will dither over it or get offended , and then spot will drop some more and the offer will go down and pretty soon you will be the guy who is sitting on a complete set of first spouse coins you bought 500 spot dollars higher at a premium and no one will want them . They are hideous stupid coins that should never have been made in the first place , that is why they are low mintage , not because people loved them when they came out.

Every coin has a history if its old enough , that 2002 1 ounce AGE changed hands for $400 and probably 600 and maybe 900 and some fool owned the thing at $1850 too.

Ebay is a good place to sell but things are a little more skewed to the buyers than they used to be. By all means sell your 1 oz coins there , there will be buyers for them but don't be surprised if someone with 3 feedback buys it and pays with a credit card and you could see that money frozen in your paypal account 5 months down the road on a chargeback. Paypal is probably linked the account you write your monthly mortgage payment on , something to think about . How calm are you going to feel if you have a dozen 1 oz coins listed at one time?

My exit strategy is all about infinitely divisible piles of 90% silver and fractional liquid gold . That's the most flexible way out but I'm sure something will go wrong even then and it will cost me.

The other thing about big bullion in dollar amounts is that its less likely you will be able to sell for actual cash which will create a paper trail for the government. The only thing worse than having no paper trail at tax time is having half a paper trail , the sale end only , you could wind up paying taxes on a sale that you actually lost money on.

It's not like the government is going to get less into your business as time goes forward.

 

Then $5 gold modern commemoratives seem like a good play then. Low premium going in, similar going out. Fractional, Constitutional,easier to use for barter.

I know this thread was about silver, but since they sell for a premium over junk, I don't think they are as good a play for stacking. For collecting sure, but not for investing.

 

You should have never been buying metals in the first place if your budget is that tight that you have to be selling constantly to get essentials

 

I think he is talking about stuff hitting the fan scenarios.

 

Well no one is going to the store and buying or selling anything with gold and silver if society completely collapses. Stores will be robbed blind in 5 minutes and never get restocked. You also don't trade essentially for non essentials in survival situations.

 

Not only that, but if I have supplies needed after such a scenario, why should I sell them to anyone for a metal. If it is food, propane for heat, pure drinking water, antibiotics, medical supplies, etc? Use it all for you and your family and then go out and pick up all of the gold and silver from those dead from disease, starvation, etc. The point of such scenario is to remain alive and healthy. The metals will last , food, gas, water, medicine, etc. will not, so why have more than a few minor pieces?
I know from experience, some will say what about guns, food, ammo, etc. There will be plenty of those available also after the first nuclear exchange, but many fewer owners. Buy and sell, don't stack more than a few %. Example, A tube of triple antibiotic ointment to treat infectious burns from nuclear fallout, or reduce that of biological warfare can be purchase at a 99cent type store for a $, it has a exp. date of 2 yrs, but good for a lot more. Worth at least 3 oz of gold each

 

Exactly. At least guns an ammo could be used for protection or hunting for more food but on the list of thing of value gold and silver will be at the bottom of it until a society is rebuilt. About the only people it would serve a purpose for are the ones who could live in a bunker for a decade or so and can just wait it out.

 

I'm not talking about a nuclear exchange, and I'm not talking about military operations. I'm talking about hyperinflation which prices essentials out of the reach of average households. Calm down. I wouldn't expect chaotic economics for more than a month or two, and a recovery/reset within a year; the Weimar Republic (WW1), Greece & Hungary (WW2), Argentina (1960s), and Zimbabwe, all got straightened out in a year or three. That is the time frame that you need PMs, and whatever's left over as the country recovers puts you far ahead of the game.

But down the line, you may find no one wants your paper money, even those high-tech hundreds. There will be plenty of entrepreneurs (looking ahead to the recovery) happy to trade "stuff" for gold or silver. Weimar is an especially good case study.

 

It's not that hard.

 

The difference being none of those are a comparison to a super power with the dominate military force in the world. There are examples of that happening and that is certainly a more reasonable position to take then the doomsday people but country also matters. Countries are not equals on the world economic scale and just because one country collapses because of something does not mean the other does. I can buy into that argument somewhat for people in countries like the ones you listed, but for Americans there has to be a long slow decline first. Also don't forget America is basically the largest consumer of almost everything in the world. Most of the rest of the world has a vested interest in the US economy not disappearing. Doesn't mean to just spend whatever on whatever, but there is a lot of slack there that a lot of other countries would not have

 

If you understand monetary cycles, you know that this isn't true, because fiat currency always eventually collapses and is replaced with gold. It has happened over and over throughout history. The only question is will you live long enough to see it, or will your offspring live long enough to see it, and if they do then they will already have what the new money is going to be, and there will never be any need to ever sell.

 

Gold will never be currency again unless a plague wipes out the majority of the planet

 

True, but that doesn't mean that a portion of your assets shouldn't be gold, instead of paper money. Using gold for "currency" means an extension of the fractional reserve system, which has brought us where we are today. There's insufficient gold existing (or ever mined) to support global commerce.

This is what happens: today, the "new" dollar is 4% backed by gold. But in a few years, things begin to go sour, so Congress in its wisdom reduces the backing to 3½%. Repeat. Repeat. And of course, the resulting scenario would be similar to the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement, c1972.

I have no problemo voluntarily trading part of my paper money for gold (or more likely, silver dimes) at today's prices.

You don't have to look very far to figure out what has happened to various paper money over and over and over and over, during the last 200 years. Furthermore, subsuming the dollar into a basket of currencies, or losing the substantial benefits of the petro-dollar will only accelerate the process.