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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1572704, member: 41665&quot;]fwiw an analyst (David Kostin) at GS just predicted the S&amp;P500 down -10% from Friday&#039;s close (11/9/2012) through 12/31/2012. </p><p><br /></p><p>Do we alll accept the premise of RISING ASSET CLASS CORRELATION with QE? I think this 24 month rolling correlation chart shows that&#039;s been true for US stocks &amp; Gold.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH]215606.vB[/ATTACH]</p><p><br /></p><p>Then look at a specific SP500 retracements (&gt;- 7%) since 3/9/2009. Consider POG&#039;s correlation by time, duration, magnitude: rarely, sometimes, mostly? </p><p>I proxy w/ SPY and GLD and see MIXED RESULTS.</p><p><br /></p><p>6/12-7/10/2009......SPY -7%; GLD -4.4%</p><p>4/23-7/2/2010.......SPY -14.4%; GLD +6.5%</p><p>7/22-8/19/2011......SPY -16%; GLD +5%</p><p>11/4-11/23/2011...SPY -9.4%; GLD -3%</p><p>4/2-6/4/2012........SPY -9%; GLD -3%</p><p><br /></p><p>In these reflationary QE days, IF we assume Au/Ag and US stocks are very highly correlated (same trend) THEN <b>a -10% decline puts ~POG USD 1,560. </b></p><p><b></b>IF we assume Au/Ag and US stocks are correlated <i>but Gold has only 1/3rd the downside </i>THEN <b>a -6% decline puts ~POG USD 1,684.</b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b></b>On this thread I suggested other &amp; different reasons for an -8% Decline in POG from 10/29/2012:</p><p><a href="http://www.cointalk.com/t216905-2/" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/t216905-2/">http://www.cointalk.com/t216905-2/</a>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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