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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1572612, member: 41665&quot;]1) A fairly well-informed discussion on NPR the other day described the new &quot;consensus&quot; (ahem.) The Fiscal Cliff <u>won&#039;t</u> be a catastrophe as many reckoned earlier but <i>more like a slow bleed</i>, with anticipated decline on various econ/mkt factors. More bearishly, I suppose the stock mkt has a -25% downside here, warranting reallocation (REDUCING RISK, RAISING CASH and ADDING HEDGES in spec paper portfolios.) But I&#039;m a bear by nature and very cynical that &#039;problems unsolved must get worse.&#039;</p><p><br /></p><p>2) Germany&#039;s audit of NYFed Au: nada. Call for withdrawing said Au from USA &gt; Ger: maybe marginally bullish for Au, on the news/interest.</p><p><br /></p><p>3) &#039;Something&#039;s Gotta Give&#039; : I agree, but what? Perhaps there&#039;s a spookier outlier (exogenous event) that will tank mkts instead? idk. </p><p><br /></p><p>4) Silver @ $50.: I think <b>very very unlikely </b>until AFTER the next sharp selloff/flash crash/leg of deflation is over and mkts have been juiced by yet another round of QE. Iminently, I foresee volatility with bigger downside risk: POS @ $20. = -43% decline off the near peak. That&#039;s the lower end of any sharp shock I&#039;d &quot;anticipate.&quot; All this printing/easing of the past few years - and very little financial reform - has NOT made the mkts &#039;more stable&#039; so<i> know-your-risk</i> and avoid panic surprises. </p><p><br /></p><p>Gold @ 1850: more likely in mid-Spring 2013 IF the winter retrace is far weaker than I imagine, less than -11%: 1792 &gt; 1600 ...... 1600 &gt; 1850 = 15.6%.</p><p><br /></p><p>Just my two cents.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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