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<p>[QUOTE="GoldFinger1969, post: 26490114, member: 73489"]Those were spikes coming off really depressed levels.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>Gold had been price-fixed for 40 years when it went up 20-fold in 9 years in the 1970's.</b> It really "bottomed" at 10x the price from liftoff, which shows you just how undervalued gold was in 1971. It was still $300 in early-1979, the rest of the move up was the spike up into the 1979-80 inflation vortex culminating in the October 1979 Volcker money supply announcement only 2 months after his appointment.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>We went to $1,800 in 2011 from several years of treading water at about $300 give-or-take.</b> We were there for 4-5 years....if you use $400 as the level, we were there for 2 decades !!! So once again...a multi-decade (or multi-year) basing at a depressed level explains the subequent <b><span style="color: #0000ff">6-fold increase</span></b> in the gold price to $1,800.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>Now....to the present. </b> Let's assume this bottom was $1,000 or thereabouts from the early-2010's although you could also claim $1,500 from the late-2010's. If we assume similar runs up you are easily talking $4,000 (achieved) to $6,000 on a <b>4-multiplier.</b> Use a <b><span style="color: #0000ff">6-handle </span></b>(the lower of the previous run-ups) and <span style="color: rgb(255, 128, 0)"><b>we have $6,000 and $9,000. </b></span><span style="color: #000000"><b>Do the math on a 10-fold move up...</b>I'll throw out the possibility of a 20-fold increase as that was a historic, monetary, inflationary, and exchange rate anomaly.</span></p><p><b><i><br /></i></b></p><p><b><i>Remember, we went up 20-fold (or 10-fold if you are conservative) in the 1970's and 6-fold in the 2000's.</i></b>The time to load up was $1,500 and below but gold still could go up nicely from here. We could be at the equivalent of $300 gold in 1978.</p><p><br /></p><p>The key will be institutional buying from CBs and other big buyers (SWFs, super-rich, asset managers, etc.). Competition from Bitcoin/crypto is more of a sideshow.</p><p><br /></p><p>If CBs turn into sellers and decide they want more Dollars or Euros or Yuan or Yen and less gold, then throw out all my multiplier crappola, <b>gold is going down as steady sellers keep hitting the bid</b> (think 1990's and all the false-starts).</p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="color: #00b300">I don't see that right now.</span></b> The Big Boys are BUYING so when you add in investment and retail demand, more buyers than sellers. Even if CB's were net neutral, I think gold goes up though at a less feverish pace.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>Look at Indian retail buying trends over a long period of time (see below); right now they are at 800 tons per year....</b>tends to double every 15 years or so....still a per-capita GDP 1/4th that of China and China is 1/7th of ours. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie100" alt=":wideyed:" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /> Then add in another 2 billion people in Asia, Africa, and South/Central America....they all won't be buying crypto and Bitcoin on Robinhood. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie8" alt=":D" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /> What this means is as they get wealthier over time, more demand for gold (offset of course by the rising price). Still, we are talking millions of buyers every years materializing to take up stagnating gold supply.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1688859[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="GoldFinger1969, post: 26490114, member: 73489"]Those were spikes coming off really depressed levels. [B]Gold had been price-fixed for 40 years when it went up 20-fold in 9 years in the 1970's.[/B] It really "bottomed" at 10x the price from liftoff, which shows you just how undervalued gold was in 1971. It was still $300 in early-1979, the rest of the move up was the spike up into the 1979-80 inflation vortex culminating in the October 1979 Volcker money supply announcement only 2 months after his appointment. [B]We went to $1,800 in 2011 from several years of treading water at about $300 give-or-take.[/B] We were there for 4-5 years....if you use $400 as the level, we were there for 2 decades !!! So once again...a multi-decade (or multi-year) basing at a depressed level explains the subequent [B][COLOR=#0000ff]6-fold increase[/COLOR][/B] in the gold price to $1,800. [B]Now....to the present. [/B] Let's assume this bottom was $1,000 or thereabouts from the early-2010's although you could also claim $1,500 from the late-2010's. If we assume similar runs up you are easily talking $4,000 (achieved) to $6,000 on a [B]4-multiplier.[/B] Use a [B][COLOR=#0000ff]6-handle [/COLOR][/B](the lower of the previous run-ups) and [COLOR=rgb(255, 128, 0)][B]we have $6,000 and $9,000. [/B][/COLOR][COLOR=#000000][B]Do the math on a 10-fold move up...[/B]I'll throw out the possibility of a 20-fold increase as that was a historic, monetary, inflationary, and exchange rate anomaly.[/COLOR] [B][I] Remember, we went up 20-fold (or 10-fold if you are conservative) in the 1970's and 6-fold in the 2000's.[/I][/B]The time to load up was $1,500 and below but gold still could go up nicely from here. We could be at the equivalent of $300 gold in 1978. The key will be institutional buying from CBs and other big buyers (SWFs, super-rich, asset managers, etc.). Competition from Bitcoin/crypto is more of a sideshow. If CBs turn into sellers and decide they want more Dollars or Euros or Yuan or Yen and less gold, then throw out all my multiplier crappola, [B]gold is going down as steady sellers keep hitting the bid[/B] (think 1990's and all the false-starts). [B][COLOR=#00b300]I don't see that right now.[/COLOR][/B] The Big Boys are BUYING so when you add in investment and retail demand, more buyers than sellers. Even if CB's were net neutral, I think gold goes up though at a less feverish pace. [B]Look at Indian retail buying trends over a long period of time (see below); right now they are at 800 tons per year....[/B]tends to double every 15 years or so....still a per-capita GDP 1/4th that of China and China is 1/7th of ours. :wideyed: Then add in another 2 billion people in Asia, Africa, and South/Central America....they all won't be buying crypto and Bitcoin on Robinhood. :D What this means is as they get wealthier over time, more demand for gold (offset of course by the rising price). Still, we are talking millions of buyers every years materializing to take up stagnating gold supply. [ATTACH=full]1688859[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]
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