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<p>[QUOTE="Del Pinto, post: 2093164, member: 73128"]The stock market isn't ONLY winners, though. It's the Enrons, the Worldcomms, the Pets.coms and the Lehman Bros. (Remember that firm? How quickly stock investor pretend it never happened.) Hundreds of thousands of shareholder companies lost everything: they're simply OMITTED from your cherry-picked data. That fantastical "7%" ratchets down hard, if you get honest here.</p><p><br /></p><p>For example, on the safest established capital market in the world, 19th C. survivorship bias was calculated by unbiased economic researchers at 2% per annum. So how much worse in an emerging mkt like the USA, 1802-1870, 3-4%? And how much does that diminish your imaginary CAGR?</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/has-equity-always-earned-premium-evidence-nineteenth-century-britain" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/has-equity-always-earned-premium-evidence-nineteenth-century-britain" rel="nofollow">http://www.voxeu.org/article/has-equity-always-earned-premium-evidence-nineteenth-century-britain</a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>FEES! Yes: why do you suppose that a retail investor would only spend "1%" to have someone manage his small money in 1802-1870, or even as late as 1950? Mutual funds had <i>much</i> higher fees 1926-80; low cost index funds were UNKNOWN until the 1970s. So what did the average retail broker charge the smallest clients in management fees, each year from 1802-1987?</p><p><br /></p><p>(Consider what it cost to own shares in the first US mutual fund, "Massachusetts Investors Trust" back in 1926. You paid a broker upfront, what, ~5%? MIT then charged 6% of earned income, annually. Simply calculating 'fund return' omits these very real costs, still as high as 3.5% in 1949. Loads, trading costs, brokerage account fees: the compounded return of real dollars invested falls dramatically, <i>if we get honest</i>.)</p><p><br /></p><p>No, there's no such thing as a free lunch in equity investing! Tell us what it <i>really</i> cost, not 'Wall Street Make-Believe,' thanks.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Del Pinto, post: 2093164, member: 73128"]The stock market isn't ONLY winners, though. It's the Enrons, the Worldcomms, the Pets.coms and the Lehman Bros. (Remember that firm? How quickly stock investor pretend it never happened.) Hundreds of thousands of shareholder companies lost everything: they're simply OMITTED from your cherry-picked data. That fantastical "7%" ratchets down hard, if you get honest here. For example, on the safest established capital market in the world, 19th C. survivorship bias was calculated by unbiased economic researchers at 2% per annum. So how much worse in an emerging mkt like the USA, 1802-1870, 3-4%? And how much does that diminish your imaginary CAGR? [url]http://www.voxeu.org/article/has-equity-always-earned-premium-evidence-nineteenth-century-britain[/url] FEES! Yes: why do you suppose that a retail investor would only spend "1%" to have someone manage his small money in 1802-1870, or even as late as 1950? Mutual funds had [I]much[/I] higher fees 1926-80; low cost index funds were UNKNOWN until the 1970s. So what did the average retail broker charge the smallest clients in management fees, each year from 1802-1987? (Consider what it cost to own shares in the first US mutual fund, "Massachusetts Investors Trust" back in 1926. You paid a broker upfront, what, ~5%? MIT then charged 6% of earned income, annually. Simply calculating 'fund return' omits these very real costs, still as high as 3.5% in 1949. Loads, trading costs, brokerage account fees: the compounded return of real dollars invested falls dramatically, [I]if we get honest[/I].) No, there's no such thing as a free lunch in equity investing! Tell us what it [I]really[/I] cost, not 'Wall Street Make-Believe,' thanks.[/QUOTE]
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