Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by EdThelorax, Dec 12, 2018.
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May I ask what part of this is significant?
The PM market has the same feel to me as it did in 2002. Gold just made a 3rd higher low. The consolidation period has spent the patience of all but the most diehard gold bulls.
I believe it is on the verge of breaking the light blue downtrend resistance line.
When gold breaks 1300, it will be a shot heard round the world, where everyone knows that the long term uptrend has resumed. I often don't comment as I feel a picture is worth a thousand words. Probably a couple thousand of mine. Many times I am not sure of how price will react to what I draw, but feel that what I draw is significant. I certainly do not ever mind answering questions. I always have an opinion about questions, every once in a great while I get the answer right.
The gold/silver ratio is at it's 3rd highest in all of human history. Only surpassed in the 1930's and 1990.
This tends to drop as metals increase in price.
It's only a matter of time.
Stop the PRESSES!!!! Something feels like something to Ed! We're facing financial annihilation!
Good grief, not another chart watcher! Please, no! ANYTHING but another chart watcher!
Let me say I don't care one bit about your "feelings." But you just go ahead and buy up all the silver and gold you can if you "feel" so confident.
Hey Ed, you know those charts can't actually move markets, right? Please tell me you know AT LEAST that.
If you don't care, why do you bother wasting your time? Just to let me know that you don't care? Thanks, it means so much to me. Do you know how to read a chart? Can I see one of yours?
I formally studied economics during the mid-1970's. My Investments professor turned me into a committed fundamentalist. I don't DO charts. Charts are 100% BS every day, all day. Always have been, always will be.
Charts show historical data. If you don't learn the history, you are destined to repeat it.
I do not understand how recorded prices are BS. But you are welcome to believe what you want.
Price can differ from that which fundamentals dictate that it should be for a very . very long time.
Drawing on charts helps to see Potential outcomes based on past performance. Understanding the probabilities of future price action can be very useful when "bullion investing" which is the name of this forum.
If you don't do charts, why are you posting here? Was the title of this thread not clear enough for you? Just because you don;t understand something, doesn't mean you should troll those who are interested in bettering themselves through sharing. Didn't you learn from that Bitcoin thread? Probably not, because like a broken clock, you eventually were right.
If you click my name, a box will appear. There is a button marked "Ignore" feel free to use this.
I guess that part where they disclose "past results are no indication of future performance" just somehow got by you. Maybe you were out sick that millennium, huh?
Charts are useless. They accomplish NOTHING. History does NOT repeat itself. It never has.
ABSOLUTELY EVERY ONE of those colored lines of moving this or that is a pure contrivance of a warped mind. All those colored lines and wedges prove is that SOMEBODY never got past the Crayola crayons stage of intellectual development.
Crypto fails, not because of its charts, but because it is DEVOID of fundamentals - it is pure hokum.
You said it yourself, charts are historical data. Data is a numbers game. Give any 2 people the same set of numbers and they will come up with 2 different ideas, 2 different charts, 2 different meanings behind those numbers, etc. All based on what you believe or want to believe.
Charts do not indicate why a movement of any type occurred.
Thus, the comment "charts are useless" actually are pretty standard for economists such as myself.
My investment prof made sure we understood why a market moved the way it did, why a companies stock went up/down/tanked/zoomed based on the overall economy, market condition, competition and companies quarterly reports, etc.
Charts are pretty to look at. Just scribble all over it why it moved the way it did all along the way and then it could be useful for understanding trends and movements and using that knowledge for future movements.
Did you study under Will Lyons, too?
He was VICIOUS about technical analysis. In the entire 4 years I knew Professor Lyons, he never had a SINGLE even slightly kind thing to say about technical analysis.
The upswing in metals started when certain situations in the market and world political ( which we can't discuss by rules) environment changed. I expect to see volume eventually decrease first and then pricing , and the decrease down to previous levels again. Of course if I was a bullion dealer, I would be pumping and dumping as much as possible. For me I see (weak still) indicators to initiate selling PM in that chart. IMO. Jim
1a) What were the fundamental forces that caused silver and gold to rise for the decade of the 2000's?
b)What fundamentally changed in 2011 causing them to decline until 2016?
2a) Was there another change near 2016 that could be seen a fundamental reason for the decline to cease?
b)Was that the real bottom?
3a) Fundamentally speaking, are precious metals under, over, or fairly valued at these prices?
b) Should we expect them to increase or decrease from here for the next 3--5 years?
I would be happy to give my technical analysis regarding these very important historical events if anyone is interested.
Based on my interpretation of the fundamentals, I believe gold should be priced between 20 and 30 ounces of silver.
The fundamentals of fiat collectively over the longer term is factually negative, as every single one is and will continue to be inflated. True inflation that is, defined as a rise in the money supply. In other words, all other things remaining equal, gold and silver will go up based solely on the fact that our money will be worth less going forward. How one fiat will perform against another is too political to be relevant to the point of this discussion.
edited Since EVERYTHING is WITHOUT true "intrinsic" value, ESPECIALLY metals, nothing matters anymore, ESPECIALLY metals.
The only thing that matters IS so-called fiat exchange rates, and changes therein.
Separate names with a comma.