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<p>[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1565629, member: 41665"]Do you mean me, Clint? I'm NOT a numismatist, I'm a chartist. I've been advising clients on bullion, which led to my "homework" on PMs, since 2002. Based on risk tolerance, PMs are 15%>35% of the portfolio allocation presented to clients. </p><p><br /></p><p>In fact I'm trying (desperately) to see if there's <i>any </i>long term capital appreciation value in "coins" at all. I couldn't in good conscience recommend anything more than 3-5% on <i>numismatic </i>spec, and I consider that risky. </p><p><br /></p><p>The plethora of Quarters and "mintage" excitement reminds me of nothing so much as Beanie Babies. I see many 1st gen swing tags are ... BIN or No bids. Doggone WORTHLESS! </p><p><a href="http://www.helium.com/items/2047616-rare-beanie-babies-bears-how-much-are-beanie-babies-worth" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.helium.com/items/2047616-rare-beanie-babies-bears-how-much-are-beanie-babies-worth" rel="nofollow">http://www.helium.com/items/2047616-rare-beanie-babies-bears-how-much-are-beanie-babies-worth</a></p><p><br /></p><p>So POS (Spot) is about the floor on any modern collectible Silver products. It may be for Morgan Dollars too, any lower we're talking MELT. What did the <i>resale </i>premiums look like for whatever product in 2000? 2004? 2007? 2008? 2009? 2011? I'd bet resale premiums have fallen. Why? Because most collectibles' value has. What will reverse that?</p><p><br /></p><p>As I showed with the Mint Sets above, the retail premium ($62.89) over intrinsic value was <b>(POS @ $39.86 x 1.33 = $53.36) was THEN ~18%. And that <i>paid </i>retail premium ROSE as POS fell: now it's about 47%. </b>No comment on today's Mint premiums, either. </p><p><br /></p><p>For modern Silver coins, a retail Ag premium 18% might be fair for a store - but on eBay you're paying less for the same thing. As on 9/27/12: $51.50 - 5.06 > $46.84; POS @ $33.50 so $44.84 intrinsic =<b> 3.6% premium, on eBay. </b>Sweet deal.</p><p><a href="http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?type=3&campid=5335874456&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fitm%2F2011-US-Mint-Silver-Proof-set-%2F160889743935" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?type=3&campid=5335874456&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fitm%2F2011-US-Mint-Silver-Proof-set-%2F160889743935" rel="nofollow">http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-US-Mint-Silver-Proof-set-/160889743935</a></p><p><br /></p><p>True, that auction might be low-end and 'best premium' ; maybe set a bid target ~ 55% over the POS for Mint Sets? That sounds like a fair metric IMO, but says nothing about how much more numismatic value might erode on proof sets. If the economy continues this way, will <i>that type of collector </i>suffer more and start selling hard? </p><p><br /></p><p>I asked folks about Morgans. I consider today's Morgan buyers fairly solid, sensible guys. Maybe bullion guys look for better deals? (On investment forums that holds true.) So in Nevada and Florida, as good examples as any, the AU unslabbed are reportedly selling for ~$30. each, Ag @ ~ $32. - 34.</p><p><br /></p><p>With 0.77345 Troy Ounces pure Ag (Spot @ 32. = $24.75) and given a range, that's a <b>anywhere from 1% - 20% premium on fine vintage coin </b>purchased from presumably reputable & trusted local dealers. <b>As I looked at the middle mkt on eBay, possibly 'collectible' Morgans run 16% - 45% over Spot.</b> So I suppose <b>20% is fair </b>for a bullionist buying from the LCS.</p><p><br /></p><p>As a subset, the Morgan varietals mkt shows something less prudent, highly speculative and hype-driven: maybe more like the proof set crowd? <b>P<b>remiums </b>went from 3.5 - 4x POS in 2005 to 27x Spot for avg coins ; now it's back down to <b>2x Spot for slabbed </b>coins now.</b> Don't surprised if you can find 'varietals' in great shape on eBay at no additional premium over typical AU, also. </p><p><br /></p><p>Both points above suggest a slight, disciplined numismatic hedge might exist somewhere in the middle: <b>buying better Morgans at discount, ~15% - 150% the Current Spot POS, </b>the greater for lower mintages. I doubt you'd risk overpaying this way,<b> if POS ranges $20.>$40. over the next few years. </b>(On the upside, there's only upside.)</p><p><br /></p><p>I wouldn't pay more for .999 Quarters or other modern Ag mint products, anyway. Dollar-Cost-Averaging over time, it's all about the premium.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1565629, member: 41665"]Do you mean me, Clint? I'm NOT a numismatist, I'm a chartist. I've been advising clients on bullion, which led to my "homework" on PMs, since 2002. Based on risk tolerance, PMs are 15%>35% of the portfolio allocation presented to clients. In fact I'm trying (desperately) to see if there's [I]any [/I]long term capital appreciation value in "coins" at all. I couldn't in good conscience recommend anything more than 3-5% on [I]numismatic [/I]spec, and I consider that risky. The plethora of Quarters and "mintage" excitement reminds me of nothing so much as Beanie Babies. I see many 1st gen swing tags are ... BIN or No bids. Doggone WORTHLESS! [URL]http://www.helium.com/items/2047616-rare-beanie-babies-bears-how-much-are-beanie-babies-worth[/URL] So POS (Spot) is about the floor on any modern collectible Silver products. It may be for Morgan Dollars too, any lower we're talking MELT. What did the [I]resale [/I]premiums look like for whatever product in 2000? 2004? 2007? 2008? 2009? 2011? I'd bet resale premiums have fallen. Why? Because most collectibles' value has. What will reverse that? As I showed with the Mint Sets above, the retail premium ($62.89) over intrinsic value was [B](POS @ $39.86 x 1.33 = $53.36) was THEN ~18%. And that [I]paid [/I]retail premium ROSE as POS fell: now it's about 47%. [/B]No comment on today's Mint premiums, either. For modern Silver coins, a retail Ag premium 18% might be fair for a store - but on eBay you're paying less for the same thing. As on 9/27/12: $51.50 - 5.06 > $46.84; POS @ $33.50 so $44.84 intrinsic =[B] 3.6% premium, on eBay. [/B]Sweet deal. [URL="http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?type=3&campid=5335874456&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fitm%2F2011-US-Mint-Silver-Proof-set-%2F160889743935"]http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-US-Mint-Silver-Proof-set-/160889743935[/URL] True, that auction might be low-end and 'best premium' ; maybe set a bid target ~ 55% over the POS for Mint Sets? That sounds like a fair metric IMO, but says nothing about how much more numismatic value might erode on proof sets. If the economy continues this way, will [I]that type of collector [/I]suffer more and start selling hard? I asked folks about Morgans. I consider today's Morgan buyers fairly solid, sensible guys. Maybe bullion guys look for better deals? (On investment forums that holds true.) So in Nevada and Florida, as good examples as any, the AU unslabbed are reportedly selling for ~$30. each, Ag @ ~ $32. - 34. With 0.77345 Troy Ounces pure Ag (Spot @ 32. = $24.75) and given a range, that's a [B]anywhere from 1% - 20% premium on fine vintage coin [/B]purchased from presumably reputable & trusted local dealers. [B]As I looked at the middle mkt on eBay, possibly 'collectible' Morgans run 16% - 45% over Spot.[/B] So I suppose [B]20% is fair [/B]for a bullionist buying from the LCS. As a subset, the Morgan varietals mkt shows something less prudent, highly speculative and hype-driven: maybe more like the proof set crowd? [B]P[B]remiums [/B]went from 3.5 - 4x POS in 2005 to 27x Spot for avg coins ; now it's back down to [B]2x Spot for slabbed [/B]coins now.[/B] Don't surprised if you can find 'varietals' in great shape on eBay at no additional premium over typical AU, also. Both points above suggest a slight, disciplined numismatic hedge might exist somewhere in the middle: [B]buying better Morgans at discount, ~15% - 150% the Current Spot POS, [/B]the greater for lower mintages. I doubt you'd risk overpaying this way,[B] if POS ranges $20.>$40. over the next few years. [/B](On the upside, there's only upside.) I wouldn't pay more for .999 Quarters or other modern Ag mint products, anyway. Dollar-Cost-Averaging over time, it's all about the premium.[/QUOTE]
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