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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1565480, member: 41665&quot;]Clint-</p><p>We should be lucky. Or, have felt lucky even if we didn&#039;t know it then.&nbsp; The American Century was unprecedented, you must admit. </p><p><br /></p><p>If you want to know more about my background and outlook, fine.&nbsp; I&#039;m no numismatist, I&#039;m examining that.&nbsp; I&#039;m an analyst/chartist from the financial service industry, with a particular focus on downside risk.&nbsp; I&#039;ve only been studying global crises for about six years, but told clients (in 2003/4) I thought there&#039;d be &#039;another crash&#039; around 2007/8.&nbsp; From as early as 2001, I was reading Marc Faber, John Hussman, Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini, Prudent Bear Chat, Jesse&#039;s column and other bears online but remained allocated rather bullishly until 2007. Yes, I was also laughed at professionally for my heretical views - that didn&#039;t bother me. (I also heard the warning about the mortgage mess - but did not profit from that.) I added/allocated mkt-short ETFs into my portfolios through the last week in Februray 2009, then leapt aboard the Bull Market with Faber&#039;s call, huge gains in 2009.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>Despite good market calls (following or not following others!) I began to realize there&#039;s something much much deeper to THIS risk.&nbsp; Carefully parsing insiders&#039; revelations that the banks were insolvent and our global economy was poised to evaporate in 2008, and the bailouts prevented that but were just <i>the third round of band-aids</i>, I looked beyond.&nbsp; Fed Chmn Greenspan bragging about his ability to tame the Kondratieff Winter (2002) and a Republican Prez on teevee bleating &quot;I want all Americans to own a Home!&quot; and then sending everyone checks in the mail (plus two- or three- trillion dollar wars, which rapidly reflated the mkts) was no bonanza ... it was a desperate attempt to stave off reality.&nbsp; That five-year reflationary effort FAILED in 2007: 85 year-old Bear Stearns and 158 year old Lehman Bros vaporized, the forced sale of 94-year old Merrill Lynch proves how bad it was. Wall Street was DOA.&nbsp; As Neel Kashkari said, without any exaggeration:</p><p><b>&quot;If the federal government had limited TARP funds to banks that needed moderate assistance, <b>several </b>large banks would have failed, bringing down the financial system.&quot;</b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b></b>There is it, blunt honest and simple. And nothing&#039;s been fixed. So how did we get here and how long will it last? My recent studies - looking back historically, 200 years - strongly suggest to me this is no cyclical Bear Mkt (many others realize that now, too.)&nbsp; In my opinion - not from anyone else - this is a 21-Year Super-Cycle Deflationary Crash than <i>began </i>in 2000 and won&#039;t end until 2020/2022. By Seven Year counts, 2014 will be a VERY BAD year for stocks - and probably witness extraordinary inflation as well.&nbsp; Again: that&#039;s just my read, looking back on two century of data.&nbsp; This is quite possibly the margin call on global capitalism. </p><p><br /></p><p>To the polyannas and perennial optimists I ask: what could they possibly do to reflate the markets now?&nbsp; Tax cuts won&#039;t, obv: that myth is long dead.&nbsp; Bush&#039;s plan in 2000 (originally the CATO Institute&#039;s, now Ryan&#039;s) to privatize Social Security <i>would be </i>a godsend to my industry, a last hurrah for financial svcs... and then, finally and permanently wipe out what remains of the illusion of Americans&#039; wealth. Why? It&#039;s no fix. Most &quot;investors&quot; will cash out and head straight to the casinos or Walmart as severe inflation takes hold.&nbsp; That what I think: the Perfect Storm is arriving in 2014-17.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today, old folks still imagine they&#039;ll get full pensions and Social Security - sad delusion, not in the Debt Jubilee they won&#039;t.&nbsp; My point here?&nbsp; Little people and the rich alike will look to park any residual savings outside of Burning Paper.&nbsp; As Wall Street Paper investments fail at last (and I don&#039;t mean -50% declines) the Game is almost over.&nbsp; We&#039;re at the end of our tether, there&#039;s no more road to kick the can down.&nbsp; The US is in a fiduciary/fiscal bind: raise taxes?&nbsp; Raise bond yields?&nbsp; No, and the nations of the world won&#039;t look to the USA for advice or safe-haven as defaults loom. Treasury bonds and the Dollar will collapse in quick succession -what &#039;monetary instrument&#039; remains, as Paper (stocks, bonds and Dollars) burns?&nbsp; </p><p><br /></p><p>The Indians and the Chinese buy Gold.&nbsp; They are 2.5 bln of the ~7 bln people on the planet.&nbsp; So I consider Gold a safer bet than the Dollar, but you&#039;re right: ALL assets have <i>risk</i>.&nbsp; Buying abit of bullion (Ag, Au, Pt, Pd and Rh) on any sharp declines makes alot more sense than anything else. Look for LOW PREMIUMS and -10%/15% declines as opportunities to build abit of real-asset savings.</p><p><br /></p><p>Collecting coins? For FUN, yes, and maybe to teach children about money generally.&nbsp; But avoid any collectibles at full retail or dealer markups, and look to pay as little as possible. The US collectible market certainly won&#039;t improve until Americans&#039; personal finances do.&nbsp; Don&#039;t hold your breath, chief.&nbsp; A 28-year Bear Market in (US) numismatic coin values would not surprise me at all, given this (my) Big Picture.&nbsp; The middle- and low-end of the market might already be racing towards scrap.&nbsp; But look on the bright side: it&#039;s a great time to start collecting when everyone else starts SELLING.&nbsp; That hasn&#039;t happened yet.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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