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Mintage don't matter. Demand matters.........

 

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Mintages, demand, silver or junk. It's all one picture. It just depends on how each collector looks at that picture and his or her determination of it's meaning. Case in point:



Got some numbers. As most of you know, the 2010 sets final sales number was 585,414. As of October 23rd this year, the 2011 Silver Proof Set sales are at 568,097. That's 17,317 sets behind the 2010 final number. Since June of this year, sales have been anywhere between 155 and 460 per week for the 2011 set. The 2012 Silver Proof Set has sold 314,585 units thus far and is averaging 3,500 sets being sold per week.

 

mintage to a point matters alot...like the 100,000 mintage on the 2011 S silver eagle...

course if your looking at the 300+million mintage of almost any state quarter...yea other then collecting for a set...you'd be lucky to find a buyer over 2x face value for 'em...

in the grand scheme of things anything that is considered a normal yearly collectible like mint sets or proofs that has a mintage over 700k seems to be a winner in the long run and the lower the mintage goes the better chance of much much more "FREE MONEY!"

 

you use to pay 200 for a 1999 but now you can get then for less then 90 if you shop.i buy 2010 and 11 on ebay and always hold at 60 but prefer 55 or don't buy it.that is just me though.now the wisconsin(high/low leaf) out shines the delaware in my opinion just don't keep them to long because i think the est. number is low on the errors.

 

Indeed it pays to wait at times. This ol' fool paid over $300 for one back a few years ago.

 

Make that 2 Ol Fools. I did the same thing.

 

WAT

Or more specifically: come again?! If I spend $200 for something that I can just as easily buy on eBay at super deep discounts - the "value" of this item is basically zilch. Factoring eBay's additional 15% bite, these sellers took a bath if they paid $200. What's not to understand?

In accounting that's called a LOSS. It's the opposite of "free money" - it's losing BIG TIME.

See it sells for ~ $25.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1999-SILVER...ELT-LINCOLN-AND-jEFFERSON-COINS-/230866918441
or ~$75:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1999-US-Mint-Silver-Proof-Set-/190747247006

Mintage and production runs of modern junk matters not a whit - it's a fool's market, just like the Beanie Baby Ponzi.

See the part on Franklin Mint "collectibles" :
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pf_article_113722.html

 

Juan, I am so happy you've joined the conversation. ON one hand, it's a lot of fun just to YAK it up, about how great deals are; on the other hand, it's great to get a bullion guy's opinion now and then (see esp. the infamous 2011 ASE 25th set thread, Fatima, Guano et al).

With my very limited knowledge, it appears the global economic woes are a (the?) major cause in the fantastically low premiums on numis, and it's a great time to load up on low mintage pieces which are underpinned by PMs, like these silver proof sets. Of course each person needs to assess what they like looking at (versus an online stock fund statement), what premium they are willing to pay (1% or 30?), where they think PMs are going, how long the present cycle will last and where we are in it, and how they would sell.

It's a timing thing. You seem to be saying that if we are going into global meltdown, then collectibles will be upside-down. Surely. But if that never happens, why not buy now, these issues with low premiums and mintages? I bought a Franklin Mint Bahamas silver proof set for spot...if I never get more than spot, oh well, silver WILL rise again, someday, and I'll sell it then. Did you notice the 2010 New Mexico ATB design in that Franklin Mint picture? Pretty sure that's U.S. Mint on Homer Simpson's pants/Hot Springs...:hail:

Everything is a risk. What if the meltdown happens in 50 years? By that time, there's a lot of room to go up, down, or sideways. What if it never happens? So the question is, "Do you feel lucky?"

 

Clint-
We should be lucky. Or, have felt lucky even if we didn't know it then. The American Century was unprecedented, you must admit.

If you want to know more about my background and outlook, fine. I'm no numismatist, I'm examining that. I'm an analyst/chartist from the financial service industry, with a particular focus on downside risk. I've only been studying global crises for about six years, but told clients (in 2003/4) I thought there'd be 'another crash' around 2007/8. From as early as 2001, I was reading Marc Faber, John Hussman, Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini, Prudent Bear Chat, Jesse's column and other bears online but remained allocated rather bullishly until 2007. Yes, I was also laughed at professionally for my heretical views - that didn't bother me. (I also heard the warning about the mortgage mess - but did not profit from that.) I added/allocated mkt-short ETFs into my portfolios through the last week in Februray 2009, then leapt aboard the Bull Market with Faber's call, huge gains in 2009.

Despite good market calls (following or not following others!) I began to realize there's something much much deeper to THIS risk. Carefully parsing insiders' revelations that the banks were insolvent and our global economy was poised to evaporate in 2008, and the bailouts prevented that but were just the third round of band-aids, I looked beyond. Fed Chmn Greenspan bragging about his ability to tame the Kondratieff Winter (2002) and a Republican Prez on teevee bleating "I want all Americans to own a Home!" and then sending everyone checks in the mail (plus two- or three- trillion dollar wars, which rapidly reflated the mkts) was no bonanza ... it was a desperate attempt to stave off reality. That five-year reflationary effort FAILED in 2007: 85 year-old Bear Stearns and 158 year old Lehman Bros vaporized, the forced sale of 94-year old Merrill Lynch proves how bad it was. Wall Street was DOA. As Neel Kashkari said, without any exaggeration:
"If the federal government had limited TARP funds to banks that needed moderate assistance, several large banks would have failed, bringing down the financial system."


There is it, blunt honest and simple. And nothing's been fixed. So how did we get here and how long will it last? My recent studies - looking back historically, 200 years - strongly suggest to me this is no cyclical Bear Mkt (many others realize that now, too.) In my opinion - not from anyone else - this is a 21-Year Super-Cycle Deflationary Crash than began in 2000 and won't end until 2020/2022. By Seven Year counts, 2014 will be a VERY BAD year for stocks - and probably witness extraordinary inflation as well. Again: that's just my read, looking back on two century of data. This is quite possibly the margin call on global capitalism.

To the polyannas and perennial optimists I ask: what could they possibly do to reflate the markets now? Tax cuts won't, obv: that myth is long dead. Bush's plan in 2000 (originally the CATO Institute's, now Ryan's) to privatize Social Security would be a godsend to my industry, a last hurrah for financial svcs... and then, finally and permanently wipe out what remains of the illusion of Americans' wealth. Why? It's no fix. Most "investors" will cash out and head straight to the casinos or Walmart as severe inflation takes hold. That what I think: the Perfect Storm is arriving in 2014-17.

Today, old folks still imagine they'll get full pensions and Social Security - sad delusion, not in the Debt Jubilee they won't. My point here? Little people and the rich alike will look to park any residual savings outside of Burning Paper. As Wall Street Paper investments fail at last (and I don't mean -50% declines) the Game is almost over. We're at the end of our tether, there's no more road to kick the can down. The US is in a fiduciary/fiscal bind: raise taxes? Raise bond yields? No, and the nations of the world won't look to the USA for advice or safe-haven as defaults loom. Treasury bonds and the Dollar will collapse in quick succession -what 'monetary instrument' remains, as Paper (stocks, bonds and Dollars) burns?

The Indians and the Chinese buy Gold. They are 2.5 bln of the ~7 bln people on the planet. So I consider Gold a safer bet than the Dollar, but you're right: ALL assets have risk. Buying abit of bullion (Ag, Au, Pt, Pd and Rh) on any sharp declines makes alot more sense than anything else. Look for LOW PREMIUMS and -10%/15% declines as opportunities to build abit of real-asset savings.

Collecting coins? For FUN, yes, and maybe to teach children about money generally. But avoid any collectibles at full retail or dealer markups, and look to pay as little as possible. The US collectible market certainly won't improve until Americans' personal finances do. Don't hold your breath, chief. A 28-year Bear Market in (US) numismatic coin values would not surprise me at all, given this (my) Big Picture. The middle- and low-end of the market might already be racing towards scrap. But look on the bright side: it's a great time to start collecting when everyone else starts SELLING. That hasn't happened yet.

 

Thank you so much for detailing "the rub" with so much breadth. This generation of Americans may truly see how great we had it. I pray not, for that begins a global dark age, as Ronald Reagan referred to, as well as so many others, such as "The 5,000 year leap." Ugh, and I always looked to this thread for happy-go-lucky "FREE MONEY" updates... :thumb:

 

Tulips have their seasons and given enough time everything is a tulip. Folks buying at $200 paid market at the time. If silver plunges back to $5/oz, are the buyers at $32 getting basically zilch for their speculation? It could have just as easily run up and more to the point, it won't be going to zero like some fiat toilet paper can and will certain do eventually. Short of being the market maker or monopolizing a resource, there is little more than gambling going on regardless of the items in question.

 

I'm fairly confident FB will be a $5. stock (or hit the pink sheets) before Ag drops to $15. That would be a sweet buying opp, IMO. Silver, like Gold, is increasingly viewed as monetary alternative by global mkts.

I wouldn't be suprised if many "coin collectors" of the State Quarter series spent their change as such. So ya, those collectibles have face-value ... but I can think of a 200 different ways to spend that "investment."

 

What do you all think about the future premiums of state/ATB silver quarters (available as a quarters-only set) versus silver Roosies and JFKs which only come in the complete sets? On one hand you have the multiple changing reverses per year, on the other you have lower mintages...

 

Do you mean me, Clint? I'm NOT a numismatist, I'm a chartist. I've been advising clients on bullion, which led to my "homework" on PMs, since 2002. Based on risk tolerance, PMs are 15%>35% of the portfolio allocation presented to clients.

In fact I'm trying (desperately) to see if there's any long term capital appreciation value in "coins" at all. I couldn't in good conscience recommend anything more than 3-5% on numismatic spec, and I consider that risky.

The plethora of Quarters and "mintage" excitement reminds me of nothing so much as Beanie Babies. I see many 1st gen swing tags are ... BIN or No bids. Doggone WORTHLESS!
http://www.helium.com/items/2047616-rare-beanie-babies-bears-how-much-are-beanie-babies-worth

So POS (Spot) is about the floor on any modern collectible Silver products. It may be for Morgan Dollars too, any lower we're talking MELT. What did the resale premiums look like for whatever product in 2000? 2004? 2007? 2008? 2009? 2011? I'd bet resale premiums have fallen. Why? Because most collectibles' value has. What will reverse that?

As I showed with the Mint Sets above, the retail premium ($62.89) over intrinsic value was (POS @ $39.86 x 1.33 = $53.36) was THEN ~18%. And that paid retail premium ROSE as POS fell: now it's about 47%. No comment on today's Mint premiums, either.

For modern Silver coins, a retail Ag premium 18% might be fair for a store - but on eBay you're paying less for the same thing. As on 9/27/12: $51.50 - 5.06 > $46.84; POS @ $33.50 so $44.84 intrinsic = 3.6% premium, on eBay. Sweet deal.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-US-Mint-Silver-Proof-set-/160889743935

True, that auction might be low-end and 'best premium' ; maybe set a bid target ~ 55% over the POS for Mint Sets? That sounds like a fair metric IMO, but says nothing about how much more numismatic value might erode on proof sets. If the economy continues this way, will that type of collector suffer more and start selling hard?

I asked folks about Morgans. I consider today's Morgan buyers fairly solid, sensible guys. Maybe bullion guys look for better deals? (On investment forums that holds true.) So in Nevada and Florida, as good examples as any, the AU unslabbed are reportedly selling for ~$30. each, Ag @ ~ $32. - 34.

With 0.77345 Troy Ounces pure Ag (Spot @ 32. = $24.75) and given a range, that's a anywhere from 1% - 20% premium on fine vintage coin purchased from presumably reputable & trusted local dealers. As I looked at the middle mkt on eBay, possibly 'collectible' Morgans run 16% - 45% over Spot. So I suppose 20% is fair for a bullionist buying from the LCS.

As a subset, the Morgan varietals mkt shows something less prudent, highly speculative and hype-driven: maybe more like the proof set crowd? Premiums went from 3.5 - 4x POS in 2005 to 27x Spot for avg coins ; now it's back down to 2x Spot for slabbed coins now. Don't surprised if you can find 'varietals' in great shape on eBay at no additional premium over typical AU, also.

Both points above suggest a slight, disciplined numismatic hedge might exist somewhere in the middle: buying better Morgans at discount, ~15% - 150% the Current Spot POS, the greater for lower mintages. I doubt you'd risk overpaying this way, if POS ranges $20.>$40. over the next few years. (On the upside, there's only upside.)

I wouldn't pay more for .999 Quarters or other modern Ag mint products, anyway. Dollar-Cost-Averaging over time, it's all about the premium.

 

as long as the gov keeps printing money at the rate of 300 to 400 mill per day and only recycling 12 to 30 mill for various reasons things will continue to go down and no matter how rich you are you can't keep getting new credit cards to pay off old ones sooner or later no one will give you one.people get paid to much for what they do too and the funny thing is everyone agrees,but they personally are under paid.sooner or later something must happen to reset things most likely something quite drastic because not only are there no quick fixes i think anything short of some kind of global catastrophy is no more then wishful thinking.

 

Finally found the latest numbers as of October 31st, 2012. 2011 Silver Proof Set sales were 411 sets sold this past week. Current total is now 568,508. That's 16,901 behind the 2010 total. 2012 Silver Proof sales were 3,789 sold this past week. Current total is 318,374.
With the holidays just ahead, sales should increase.

Also, a big thanks to our good friend TopCat for sharing the Mint News Blog with us and virtually reviving this thread.

 

Re: Mint Silver Set VALUATION

Even though I think 'intrinsic value' (the OP's starting premise) is fair, in truth you need to factor all costs, net as a seller. On a Silver Mint Set, the immediate loss on retail purchase (@ given prices) is exceedingly high and very poor from an "investment standpoint."

1) What you paid new from the Mint : $ 67.95 + s/h?
2) What it sells for on eBay: ~$ 51.50 (-18% Loss)
3) What Seller gets, net all costs*: ~$ 41.65 (-33% Loss)

*eBay/PayPal's 15%, plus s/h

The OP's break-even point (based on intrinsic Ag weight and including seller's cost on eBay) must include Seller costs; purchased at $67.95, Break-even must be Future Sale @ >$ 82.46

And so, following the OP's premise for Silver-weight discussion:
If the intrinsic value of the 1.33866 Oz. Ag remains the price-driver ($77.40 intrinsic) then the Spot price (POS) must be ... USD$ 57.82 per Troy Oz. There's your intrinsic "breakeven" Sell Target on Price of Silver (POS.)

Need I emphasize how terrible this investment was? It's simple: POS was $28. on 8/7/2011 ... for POS @ $57.82, Silver will have DOUBLED while the Mint Set value flatlined. True, there are costs buying and selling bullion also, but I see (and others report) cull Morgan premiums ~ 3%. With patience, you could have bought two ounces of Silver coin for $68 on 8/7/2011 ; at said future date (POS @ $57.82) selling at a modest +3% premium and factoring the exact same costs (ebay, s/h) you will net $99. and realize a gain of $31. or 46% from 8/7/2011.

To me, it's a no-brainer: buy bullion for 'investment' NOT depreciating Mint Sets.

The 'Collectible' Vintage Silver Coin Premium:
This is just one coin date & grade, and maybe it was overpriced in 2011 (the caveat of apples &oranges) but see how the 'collectible coin' value and intrinsic premium have apparently fallen. I foresee that trend continues - where gain is all due to intrinsic value increasing, this almost mandates BULLION not collectibles for "investment."

(Dated 8/2/2011: POS $27.42): On another site, I see a "1923 ICG MS64 Peace Dollar. 100% white and well struck. Nice Type coin for the series. $68 shipped" Trader's Premium, 8/2/2011: 221%11/1/2012, POS @ $32.25 : Peace BIN, it's currently $65. - $80. (Average $72.50) BIN Premium, 11/1/2012: ~191%
11/1/2012, POS @ $32.25 : Recently Completed Peace Auctions: $44. - 68.25 ; Median eBay auction price: $55. Auction Premium, 11/1/2012: ~121%

Hypothetical, POS @ $57.82: Peace BIN will be $ 112. - $ 120. (Average $ 116) BIN Premium, Future Date 201?: ~150%
Hypothetical, POS @ $57.82: Peace Auctions will average $ 89.50 Auction Premium, Future Date 201?: ~ 100%

That's the trend as I see it: resale premiums falling. I do suppose Silver will eventually go to ~$60. but have NO IDEA when POS might hit $58., 2016 or 2018?
fwiw: on the Silver Chart, I think we will see additional dramatic declines before that happens.
Future Ag buying opportunities ahead!

 

Good grief! Sales have plunged 44%?! That's alarming (or should be.) Why suppose that difference will be made up in 8 weeks remaining?

Also:
Why is eBay awash in these Silver Mint Sets? How low will they fall?
Buy 'em all at once, 45-48 bucks each. Somebody ate a huge loss there - that's the opposite of "free money" in my book.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/12-Silver-Proof-Sets-1999-2007-2009-2011-/130741481963

1928 P Peace Dollar had an original mintage of 360,649 and experts estimate less than 12,000 survive with fewer than 6,000 surviving in uncirculated condition. There are about 10 on eBay now. Recently completed auctions suggest a current price range for slabs @ $280. - 350. Compared to a Mint Set, the scarcity of a highish grade 1928 P Peace Dollar looks ridiculously cheap: you can buy a very nice one for 10x the POS. But NGC shows values considerably higher, ~40% over eBay :
http://www.ngccoin.com/poplookup/NumismediaPrice-History.aspx?c=17373&g=60

 

Shhh..... He's asleep. I picked up two Kennedy halves and two dimes from a buddy today who broke up some 2011 Silver Proof Sets for $25! That's FREE MONEY!! Shhh.....

 

I think your forgetting a few things
like the fact that some of the sets on ebay are less then top quality...there are people out
there that make it a business...they buy say 2,000 sets
they check the sets for high grade coins such as PF70 and make most their money that way...so
if they sell remaining sets for a bit less then cost it all works out in the end
I know there are other better ways to make money but it's what they decide to do and it works for them.


Also you do know that the recession hit millions of people pretty hard. Less money for all and
for alot of people they barely have enough money to just live on to pay the rent/house payment,
car possibly, food and heat and energy...so buying coins isn't exactly a priority...it's the
main reason that mintages for proofs and other coins are fairly low in relation to what other
past sets are...

I know it's easy to get down on modern coins and say they are all crap and way over
minted...but really if your looking at it all as a sole purpose of investment your probably
gonna lose out at least short term if you need to sell...as for say a decade or 2 down the road
it's very possible that some of these "crap" sets are going to go up in price ALOT like the
1999 silver proof set did when it was $200...and yes it's alot lower now but as stated above
the economy isn't in good condition...high unemployment...you need food and housing more then
some collectable coins if you don't have a cash flow

Also if you read what I wrote in a past posting...going off the original mint price of $31.95
or even the present price of a silver proof set being $67.95... the 1999 proof set is still
"FREE MONEY":hail: