Fine Art versus Bullion Markets: charts, historical data?

Are there any historical studies of correlations, negative or positive, of bullion prices with (or "against") the now peaking Fine Art market? I suspect ultra rich Euros are now hedging/diversifying more aggressively against € currency risk - but what do I know?! (In Eurolandia, have bullion sales also surged? Have Euros' %age PM allocation also risen dramatically, 2013-5?)

http://fortune.com/2015/05/13/the-fine-art-market-just-turned-over-1-billion-in-48-hours/

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/14/a...t-christies-top-1-billion-this-week.html?_r=0

 

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Way too much money floating around right now and way too little places to put it. Once bond markets around the world start paying 5% again I see collectibles losing their luster significantly, as well as overpriced NYC condos.

 

Recently, the NY Times also published an article on the Administration's intent to shut down Section 1031 exchanges (tax loopholes, primarily exploited by HNW art collectors.) It was hypothesized the 2016 tax code changes might tank the art market, so perhaps more 'swaps' are also fueling the art market now, in the USA?

Explained online:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/a...tors-in-flipping-art-faces-scrutiny.html?_r=0
http://apiexchange.com/index_main.php?id=8&idz=258

Section 1031 exchanges were mentioned here once, back in 2012:
https://www.cointalk.com/threads/tax-on-selling-gold-to-buy-home.200080/

Proposed changes would likely impact some high end coin collectors (USA), but that isn't discussed/ not a concern here.

 

That's why I buy silver. It's all junk food right now to me. If I'm going eat junk food, pardon me, if I eat the junk food that I like.

 

By contrast, Greg Reynolds' summary of the market for numismatic US rarities implies stable prices, still below 2007/8 levels: http://www.coinweek.com/expert-colu...art-6-auction-3-with-a-focus-on-half-dollars/

Whatever's inflating the art market hasn't fueled the coin market, apparently. And among the alternative asset classes of high coins, art, and bullion, PMs look to be the (relatively) discounted option.

fwiw, if you were now wondering, the IRS has issued a fair bit of guidance on "like kind" swaps relating to coins & bullion. No, you cannot swap Gold for Silver, etc.
http://www.atlas1031.com/blog/1031-...ke-Kind-Collectible-Coins-and-Precious-Metals

 

For reasons that can't be discussed here, I think investors are looking for things they can run away with.

 

Also see this recent FT article; read it, copy, and save: limited views, allowed.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cad245a0-f889-11e4-8e16-00144feab7de.html#slide0

Here's a chart of the Fine Art market, for reference:

 

Re: Numismatics

1a) USA: PCGS3000® Index (10 years) http://www.pcgs.com/

1b) USA: "Key Dates &Raritities"


2) another USA index


3) UK: English Coin 200 Index
http://investment.stanleygibbons.com/sites/investments/files/EnglishCoin200-Index.pdf


4) USA: USA Rare Coins vs. Bullion

 

Most charts like that, however, are EXTREMELY weighted towards high grade rarities. Yes, there are some commoner coins on them, but you have one common nickel along with a F Chain cent. Which price change do you think will have a higher monetary effect on the index? So, nearly all such charts are indicative of very high end coins prices, not necessarily collector coins we think about.

 

Chart 3 tells us the last 25 years have been a lie. In other words, I'll see you my stamps for $1 trillion dollars!

 

Three tracks higher than the dung jones, that's gotta be a mistake.

 

Indeed, and I found another such numismatic chart but my battery died before posting. Coin hustlers?

I'm not questioning this older chart, but it also may be informative:

 

As would charts for the Fine Art market. These two markets may be like 'apples and oranges' perhaps, but you're not arguing most (mass produced) coin rarities are less numerous than (unique) paintings, are you?

Off topic, really.

 

I didn't think it either off topic nor informative. Many times when coin collectors wish to talk about the "coin market" versus another market it is to try to make the point their numismatic purchases aren'y a waste. However, all indices for coins really only track coins that most collectors will never own. Plus, pragmatically, they never take into account acquisition costs, or selling costs. Take all of that into account and a typical coin collectors collection was a horrible investment.

So why collect? For personal gratification. That is the one metric in which coin collecting excels to a coin collector.

 

Agreed! I just wish Cheetos were collectible.