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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Rono, post: 1135521, member: 6492&quot;]Howdy folks,</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Great discussion.&nbsp; I concur with much that has been said.&nbsp; I am confident that Uncle Ben has done the things he thought best at the time and place.&nbsp; History will tell.&nbsp;&nbsp; Indeed, most public officials sincerely believe they&#039;re doing the right thing.&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>That said, they&#039;ve been dealt a nasty hand.&nbsp; The Unfunded Liabilities [social security, medicare/aid, various trust funds, debt service, etc.] are now around $100 trillion freakin dollars.&nbsp; There is no politicallly viable combination of benefit reductions and tax increases that can pay this off.&nbsp; Ergo, they are forced to monetize it [i.e. print new dollars to pay it with].&nbsp; This process of adding excessive currency into the economy is being called Quantitative Easing.&nbsp; Supposedly, QE2 is coming&nbsp; to an end and no mention has been made of needing QE3 [let&#039;s not talk about earthquakes, tsunamis and a lot of the middle east in large scale uprisings . . . oh, we&#039;re now fighting three wars].&nbsp; feh.&nbsp; I&#039;ve read that they need to halve the value of the dollar over the next decade, to make the problem of Unfunded Liabilities manageable.&nbsp; Oh, and they have to do this while avoiding hyperinflation or some sort of finanical meltdown.&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Was it Bilbo or the Gaffer that said it wasn&#039;t wise to mess in the affairs of dragons?&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I can&#039;t fix any of that stuff.&nbsp; All I can do it attempt to insulate me and mine from any nasty events as best I can.&nbsp;&nbsp; I try to look at each of the possible outcomes and assign probabilities to each.&nbsp; &nbsp; Right now I see 10-15 years of stagflation - high unemployment and serious, but not critical, price inflation - as being the most likely future.&nbsp;&nbsp; Give it 60%.&nbsp;&nbsp; I see the Fed turning things around in the short to intermediate term as perhaps a 20% probability.&nbsp; I see meltdown at about the same - 20%.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Oh, and you asked about sell triggers and decision points.&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>With stocks you can set Stop Limits which are automatic sell points.&nbsp;&nbsp; Alas, you can&#039;t do that with a roll of gold or silver eagles.&nbsp; But you can set a mental stop loss on your holdings.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I&#039;ve been using 10% during this bull run.&nbsp; If we have a correction in the prices of silver or gold, I will start to reduce my paper holdings in retirement accounts WHILE ADDING MORE PHYSICAL BULLION.&nbsp; Should the price fall another 10% I would sell more of my paper holdings.&nbsp;&nbsp; Further and I&#039;m out.&nbsp;&nbsp; I add to a position the same way - scaling in, rather than scaling out.&nbsp;&nbsp; If I feel I want to own some investment and have a goal of $10K, I buy $2.5 and wait and see if it grows.&nbsp; If it does, I buy another $2.5.&nbsp; If it sits flat, I wait.&nbsp; If it drops 5-10%, I sell and look for something else or a different time.&nbsp; Exiting is basically the same in reverse.&nbsp;&nbsp; With this you never get on the train at the first station and&nbsp; you don&#039;t get off at the last.&nbsp; But you don&#039;t need to when you&#039;re riding a 9 year trend like most of have been.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>peace,</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>rono[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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