Falling Silver prices

I know this will blow your mind, but it was the equilibrium price at which the market cleared all silver demand during a period in which traditional silver halide imaging (highly decentralized and inefficiently silver recovered due to the 1-hour photo industry) was booming to levels never seen before or since.

 

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No, the case for buying silver is a circular argument. It amounts to "you should buy silver to put away because people are buying silver to put away". That is what is propping up silver, my friend, nothing more.

 

You have an uncanny ability to equivocate. One hour photos are dead and gone, but what started getting stronger in the 90s is the electronics industry. After that, cell phones. And now, photovoltaic cells. You do know solar panels need silver, right? You are also aware that the solar industry is fledgling and has seen dramatic growth? Or will you focus on specific details out of context and refuse to see the big picture?

 

Another straw man argument

 

The "big picture" is that you could pave everybody's rooftop with photovoltaic cells, propped up on legs of cell phones and not replace photography's previous demand. Worse yet is the overhang of silver supply in existing radiographs. Even worse yet is that personal photovoltaics are not economically viable without subsidies, which are due to expire soon. I can show you two bankrupt former photovoltaics dealers in just my smallish home town. Silver is not a growth industry. AT BEST, it's a "let's see what we can do to stop the bleeding" industry. Step One is conning gullible people that it's a growth industry, and on that score, nothing beats the Bullion Investing forum on Cointalk.

 

Yadda, yadda, Bellman's a sophist, he's an equivocator, sets up straw men. How about you drop the high school debater lingo and realize I'm almost the only guy in numismatics who keeps calling the silver market correctly time after time for 5 years now. Ya think maybe it might be because I'm not some Johnny Come Lately and have been studying silver for almost 42 years now? Ya think that might have something to do with it? It's easy when everything's up, up, up. Calling a market top is hard, and I'm not the only one who did; FAR from it. But I'm among a tiny, tiny handful of numismatists who did.

Look, I cut my eye teeth watching silver. I've been around, as an adult, for both 1980 and 2011. I worked with the legislator I'm now assigned to, and a deceased State Senator and Congressman, to actually ROLL BACK previous PA DER, and EPA (yes, THAT EPA) regs involving silver in waste water streams in the late 1980's, because they were based on faulty science. Me, I did it. I've been around the silver block a few times, pal. Don't try to one-up me.

 

Stop bloviating!!!!!!

 

Nobody likes the guy who exposes your rap as crap, do you Sean?

 

You shoot yourself in the foot by spinning your opinion with your own bias.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solar-power-sees-unprecedented-boom-in-u-s/

 

No, I just don't like people who bloviate. There are so many inaccuracies and contradictions in what you say all I can think of is "bloviating". Don't worry, I'm not trying to "one up" you. But you don't care about that, you're not the competitive type lololololololollolloolollooll

 

But the tale of the tape does not reflect this. Industrial demand for Ag has been slowing declining for at least 10 years. Not by much mind you, so some thing are picking up the slack for the photo industry, but make no mistake, it is declining.

 

As I just posted the chart cleary shows that industrial demand has been declining

 

And (let's look at it together, shall we?) what category makes up more than 100% of demand growth over these years? (It's over 100% because without it, demand is DOWN!) Coins and bars. QED, Sean. It's all circular. You should buy silver to put back because demand is up. What makes demand be up? People putting back silver in the form of NEW coins and bars. Wow. If you want to "invest" based on that internal Ponzi argument, have at it. I decline.

 

And keep in mind Sean's table only BEGINS AFTER photography's demand had already been decimated. Silver halide photography will continue greatly reduced as a niche, much like vinyl LP's for audiophiles. But the lack of scale will eventually reach its nadir. It's not there yet. Single use film cameras are still driving some demand. After that, it's a fine arts market.

 

Yes, there is a decline in industrial. And that's fine if it proves me wrong. It is data, however, not meaningless self aggrandizing.

If you look at trends you will see photographic demand has decreased and coins and bars have increased by the same relative amount. So they cancel each other out. But then if you look at photovoltaic that's a 850% increase over the time period of this chart.

I am not saying the decline won't continue and I am not saying silver is a growth investment. I am saying if you look at trends you can clearly see silver has plenty of untapped industrial uses to come.

To say silver should be at five dollars for decades is erroneous. (Not that you said it)

 

And it won't matter. It could go to zero. Photovoltaic has increased 850% in the same time period. That's all I wanted you to see.

 

Demand may be declining but there has been a deficit for the last few years of supply. There will continue to be less supply as silver prices fall.

 

For a variety of reasons, I hope photovoltaic growth can continue. But it doesn't look good for now. A lot depends on political decisions. There is a parallel. In 2002 there was a law called HAVA. It spent $3.8 billion on subsidizing counties to purchase new voting machines, among other things. A whole new industry instantly sprang up to siphon away the $3.8 B. Then most of them went broke. Photovoltaic COULD go the same way. I won't count on it being solid going forward. It might, it might not. I do know I'm hearing TONS of radio spots from photovoltaic installers, not based on what it can do for you, but on snagging a tax credit. That sounds risky as a growth industry.

 

Truer words were never said! Oh the irony.


Edit: On a side note, how long did it take your coins to be ready from when they changed to "grading/quality control". I feel like I've been waiting for years.

 

Ok you guys can this please NOT turn into the stacking thread that I can't stand to even click on anymore.