Falling Silver prices

Gee and I used to, note the used to, that means That I do not now think that they are calculating the true cost of living.

If gasoline goes to 5 bucks a gallon, I need to spend more money to get to and from work, to go shopping, to visit friends or relatives, that is cost of living, sure it is now more volatile, so we just will cherry pick the things that will not show the volatility that is actually present, therefore the charts make the goobers look a little better, but it does not show the true cost of living, nor reflect the actual rate of inflation.

Same way with UNemployment, now once a persons benefits run out, voila, they no longer count. Does not mean that they are employed, it is just a way to get statistics to lie for you.

 

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No the point is the volatility screws up the short term numbers, but in the long run it DOES average out. It is not done to make the numbers look good. It is done to make the numbers more meaningful. Since you metioned gas which is extremely volatile, do the math. Simply look at the price per gallon in 1965 or so, take the price now, and figure out the inflation. You will find it closely follows the Gov numbers. I know, I have done it.

There are just too many huge bumps to include it in the numbers. I mean one year we will be at 12% infaltion then the next year will show 15% DEFLATION. That is not helpful or meaningful. Now of course you would rather argue the point that the Gov lies, then actually checking it out for yourself and discovering the truth, but that is your right.

As far as unemployment. These numbers are extremely difficult to measure and can only be used as a guide as to whether unemploymnet is getting better or worse. I would not get hung up on the numbers and that we are exactly at 5% unemployment or not. The numbers are been showing a significant improvent in the folks bringing home a paycheck and that reflects the current what we are seeing in the job market.

 

Oh... if only we had the technology to deal with "volitile" data. But oh no, we can't do that just now. It might overheat the vacuum tubes in the BLS Univac. It could even cause a punch card apocalypsie.

 

We do, it's called propaganda...

 

You got that bass ackwards, I am saying if the economy is volatile screwing around with the numbers to make it look like it is not volatile is not truth, it is not even a close facsimile of truth.

Lies damned lies and statistics.

The whole point of things like cost of living, or unemployment statistics, is not to make your party look good or bad, which it has I suppose become in the pointy headed partisan political zeitgeist.

No the point of those statistics is to reflect reality in measurable statistical terms so that people who care about this country can see where the real problems are, where we are coming from and where we are trending.

I understood what you said, and it was true, they fudged the numbers to take out the volatility and over time (??) The numbers will correct, I will take you at your word that you looked at the numbers, but I will reitarate, and restate, the numbers are jinked.

 

Just jumping in here with this tidbit: Dennis Gartmann, who carries some clout with commodities investing, said on CNBC today that he bought a gold position with his own money last week and was considering another one. He said that gold had gotten overcooked to the downside. He gave no indication of how long he would hold or a target price. No mention of silver.

 

Hogwash! Gold is STILL "overcooked" to the HIGH side, not as much as it used to be, but still high. Silver? Meh, mezzo mezzo. No better than a 60-40 bet that it's still too high. Gold, however, is a 90-10 bet that it is too high. There IS NO INFLATION, PERIOD. Won't be anytime soon either. Read today's Washington Post article for the reasons.

 

Ok existing home sales are at fresh 5yr lows. This could be a big indicator signaling a possible recession coming. Not good for pm's if this happens, not good at all.

 

Settle down Beavis...

My pocketbook tells me there is inflation - and I believe it because I see it with my own two eyes. My pool guy, my gardener, my meat, my eggs, my meals out, my healthcare, my taxes - all up substantially over the last couple years.

Everyone keeps trying to re-direct the spotlight to oil - and if oil is down - there's no inflation. It's bait and switch malarkey.

Whether or not you want to try and define inflation with randomized pieces of a puzzle that fit the cause is your business. I see real prices inflating. While they not be the core prices that the pundits historically look to - everything else is quietly going up - and maybe people are just too stupid to look away from Farcebook to notice.

 

I still hear lots of ads on the radio pushing ownership of gold, advertising works, if it didn't would it be used so often.

 

Uhh, where do you shop for your meat??? I assume you were referring to beef since that got all the publicity, but that was just so 2104. Beef prices fell dramatically in 2015 for all but the most premium of cuts. You can see it in the wholesale market, the futures market, and in the supermarkets. In addition lamb, pork and fish also fell in 2015.

EGGS???? C'mon you know darn well that egg cost went up because of the bird flu. That is NOT inflation and the eggs price will drop just as sharply when the market returns to normal. Are you going to call that deflation when it happens???

 

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You know what I do? Buy low and sell high

 

Meat - last time I was at the grocery store - a select grade rib-eye (lower grade cut) was $10/lb. Compared to $7-$8/lb a year or so ago. I know because I buy them once a month - pretty religiously - from the same store.

Eggs - in Ka-lee-for-nee they went up because of several reasons - one in particular because the (political edited) made a new law saying that chickens needed bigger cages for their quality of life. So every farmer had to dump every cage they had and buy larger cages. There's also other costs (Foster Farms had to re-brand to safe face for bird flu or salmonella, something or other.)

The end result is cost increase on both.

Meals went up because distributors raised prices - and wage costs went up due to incremental minimum wage laws and new healthcare mandates.

There's always a reason that everything goes up or down. The net effect on my pocketbook is prices are up. That is inflation.

Again, you can stick to whatever the pundits are telling you - but I play it as I see it. I see my costs for the same goods and services going up, and have gone up dramatically in the last 3 years.

Water bill? Up because of drought (won't go down this year - even with all our rain and snow so far).

Sewer bill? Up because of drought - dry pipes they say (next year it will be too much water - raise rates)

The Sunday $16.95 lobster special at Rudy's Hideaway - now $19.95. Labor and healthcare rates I assume. It's gone up a dollar a year the last 3.

THAT is inflation.

in·fla·tion
inˈflāSH(ə)n/
noun
noun: inflation

1. 1.
   the action of inflating something or the condition of being inflated.
   "the inflation of a balloon"
   • Astronomy
     (in some theories of cosmology) a very brief exponential expansion of the universe postulated to have interrupted the standard linear expansion shortly after the Big Bang.
2. 2.
   Economics
   a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money.
   "policies aimed at controlling inflation"

 

Well sure, Brett, there's your basic problem right there - that California thing. I visited the Golden State in 2015 and prices WERE pretty off the hook, WAAAY higher than in the east, particularly rural PA. You have some pretty stout local peculiarities going on out there. I don't have the regional break outs but it wouldn't surprise me if the west coast was "leading the league" in price increases. There's a whole world here east of them montañas on the ol' horizon with our economies teetering on full blown DEflation. It's serious business, Brett.

 

You know, you didn't even look, that is the problem, when folks talk about inflation, it is all driven by emotion and inaccurate recall, no fact.

Here you go, this is just one of many links that shows you are dead wrong. Is the who Internet "fixed"????? This closely follows what I witnessed at the Grocers (I am talking about the percentage drop, not the actually commodity price)


http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=beef&months=12

BTW, my ShopRite has USDA Choice boneless rib-eye roast (higher grade than select) for $8.99/lb

http://www.shoprite.com/pd/Whole-Boneless-Rib-Eye/Beef-Boneless-Rib-Eye-Roast/1-lb/200661000009/

 

Do you guys realize how many circles you go around in? This thread should be renamed "Carousels: Like Em?"

 

I really don't care. I know what I see, I know what I pay. I see everything quietly going up as everyone screams there is "no inflation" because of legacy bellwether benchmarks like oil going down.

Call me wrong all you want. It's my money and my game.

My whole family did when I bought a second home in 2010. "Real Estate is doomed for decades" was the public opinion.

My family told me I was crazy to sell gold and silver when it continued to go up. I sold lots of silver above 35, and most above 30.

Both were clearly wrong - sheep following the herd - right off the cliff.

I can pull up random articles on the internet in a vacuum to prove any point in theory. There is some truth to them usually, but their prognosis is done in a vacuum based on theory and history.

The market is overcooked and will tank -

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-3-charts-are-flashing-warnings-of-a-bear-market-131809656.html

Hedge funds are buying gold -

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-funds-buying-gold-average-195542809.html

Call me whatever you want - I know my game and I'm sticking to my game.

And to lighten the mood - Merry Christmas!

 

Hey now... I never said there was anything wrong with being a contrarian.