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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1057552, member: 3011"]I don't think the economic measures are reliable anymore, so your opinion that it is mostly guesswork is right on the mark. Every measure is flawed these days, maybe by intent. I basically look at what everything I use cost ten years ago compared to today and make an estimate from that. Based on this method, my personal estimate is that the inflation/dollar devaluation rate has been no less than 5% annually.</p><p><br /></p><p>The wildcard is that the Fed and Treasury have been pumping new money into the economy at a far higher rate than this. The only reason it hasn't been inflationary is that much of the increase has been offset by declining asset prices and a lower spending multiplier. Whether this eventually turns into hyperinflation or severe deflation depends on policy decisions that haven't been made yet.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 1057552, member: 3011"]I don't think the economic measures are reliable anymore, so your opinion that it is mostly guesswork is right on the mark. Every measure is flawed these days, maybe by intent. I basically look at what everything I use cost ten years ago compared to today and make an estimate from that. Based on this method, my personal estimate is that the inflation/dollar devaluation rate has been no less than 5% annually. The wildcard is that the Fed and Treasury have been pumping new money into the economy at a far higher rate than this. The only reason it hasn't been inflationary is that much of the increase has been offset by declining asset prices and a lower spending multiplier. Whether this eventually turns into hyperinflation or severe deflation depends on policy decisions that haven't been made yet.[/QUOTE]
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