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do you think the FED will do QE3 sometime this year?
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<p>[QUOTE="Owle, post: 1406158, member: 22004"]Not formally unless there is a real crisis requiring it. It probably doesn't matter what the FED does, most of the Austrians are seeing default in the next few years.</p><p><br /></p><p>Casey Research has been interesting lately. </p><p><br /></p><p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QRWtRfbT-2BUuJ-2FYfCMhniCIEAcmYy8141kRCEwbWtt8lVdpv-2FoCXpuv5n8YfHR8uWd70-2FjznY-2ByQXVoBTM-2BEZzskuxx-2FWML-2B4w96u6jk9JfoNdoam6Xr5mH19VH9ahvq9P0-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvEabvmgH8Qbb526WrL4lx5GOmYyCD9lpT-2F-2FIoc-2FEFVSrjsUA-2BFTkLt-2BeEpnbOcYIvTn-2F21OSgkcQBfN7-2FnCV7A6iAcdkCdJ0b-2Fn6XFkFsY8GngFRL0psoY7xsdAscU-2FDxQ" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QRWtRfbT-2BUuJ-2FYfCMhniCIEAcmYy8141kRCEwbWtt8lVdpv-2FoCXpuv5n8YfHR8uWd70-2FjznY-2ByQXVoBTM-2BEZzskuxx-2FWML-2B4w96u6jk9JfoNdoam6Xr5mH19VH9ahvq9P0-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvEabvmgH8Qbb526WrL4lx5GOmYyCD9lpT-2F-2FIoc-2FEFVSrjsUA-2BFTkLt-2BeEpnbOcYIvTn-2F21OSgkcQBfN7-2FnCV7A6iAcdkCdJ0b-2Fn6XFkFsY8GngFRL0psoY7xsdAscU-2FDxQ" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://www.caseyresearch.com/sites/default/files/resize/HistoricalExamplesofRunawayInflationandProjectionsfor2014-490x354.png" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: center">(Click on image to enlarge)</p><p>According to Shlaes, US inflation was 1% in 1915 </p><p>(based on an earlier version of the CPI-U). Over just two years, it hit 17%. As </p><p>she states, it happened because the Treasury "spent like crazy on the war, </p><p>creating money to pay for it..."</p><p><br /></p><p>Given the fact that our spending and </p><p>money-printing is now out of control, I projected what our inflation rate would </p><p>be if we matched the inflation rates of these time periods. The first striped </p><p>bar to the right represents what the CPI would register if we matched the 1940s </p><p>rise. Inflation would hit 19% by 2014. (Yes, the CPI has been tinkered with many </p><p>times, but this is at least what "unofficial" or "authentic" inflation would </p><p>register.)</p><p><br /></p><p>In 1945, the official inflation rate was 2%. It </p><p>accelerated to 14% in 24 months. If we matched this percent rise, we'd hit 15% </p><p>by 2014 (middle striped bar)..</p><p><br /></p><p>And the example that kicked off the greatest bull </p><p>market in gold and silver, the early 1970s. The CPI stood at 3.2% in 1972, a </p><p>level close to ours today. It soared to 11% just two years later. Mimicking this </p><p>rise, the third striped bar shows we'd also be at 11% in 2014. (<a href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wiScHVC13Mzg2qGRJu9BjWx-2FiEGJipZgPL73KZOFpLzcB_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvEzL03ZjWNbO0z3A2S2XvEho7ANyAryOrlbTnA-2BnF4010mylG240RbIcvDb0fgzzblGt4zHLdpWmrwf8oQ-2BX4nPiwm0nARdPOLazkmQXL42RukuO7udhsUr0C6-2F-2FRhZJJQ" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wiScHVC13Mzg2qGRJu9BjWx-2FiEGJipZgPL73KZOFpLzcB_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvEzL03ZjWNbO0z3A2S2XvEho7ANyAryOrlbTnA-2BnF4010mylG240RbIcvDb0fgzzblGt4zHLdpWmrwf8oQ-2BX4nPiwm0nARdPOLazkmQXL42RukuO7udhsUr0C6-2F-2FRhZJJQ" rel="nofollow">Shadow Stats</a> says we're already at </p><p>10% based on 1980 methodology, so from this level we'd hit 17% in 24 </p><p>months.)</p><p><br /></p><p>Could we really have inflation that high within </p><p>two years? Consider the following:</p><p><br /></p><ul> <li>Fox Business reported on March 7 that "wages grew much more quickly at the <br /> end of last year than originally estimated..." This is an important data point <br /> because most economists believe you can't have higher inflation without rising <br /> wages.</li> </ul><p> <ul> <li>Commercial and industrial loans have risen 14% year over year, and business <br /> and consumer spending are in an uptrend.</li> </ul><p> <ul> <li>Home-building permits are at their highest point since October 2008. <br /> Existing home sales fell 0.9% last month, but that's after January sales were up <br /> 4.6%.</li> <li>Jobless claims are coming down, retail sales gained the most in five months, <br /> and auto sales were up 16% last month. One report I read stated that we've had <br /> 24 consecutive weeks of stronger US data.</li> </ul><p>If the </p><p>economy continues to improve and more money is sloshing through the system, it's </p><p>easy to see how inflation could grab hold. Yet, if you understand Austrian </p><p>economics, you'll look beyond how the mainstream views inflation and to its root </p><p>cause: monetary debasement.</p><p><br /></p><ul> <li>The US monetary base stands at $2.72 <br /> trillion, a 168% increase since October 2008.</li> </ul><p> <ul> <li>The national debt in the US has <br /> risen by a whopping $4.9 trillion just since Obama took office. It now stands at <br /> $15.5 trillion.</li> </ul><p> <ul> <li>The US budget deficit this year is <br /> projected to be over $1.3 trillion, an obscene amount that exceeds the <br /> <i>entire annual budget</i> of just 20 years ago.</li> </ul><p> <ul> <li>According to ISI Group, there have <br /> been an incredible 122 "stimulative policy initiatives" from central banks <br /> around the world over the past seven months.</li> </ul><p>Remember, </p><p>in these historical examples, inflation was initially low and therefore </p><p>off everyone's radar. But government tinkering with the monetary system lit the </p><p>spark that led to a sudden and rapid rise in inflation. It caught many off </p><p>guard, just like I suspect it would now. <span style="color: #ff0000">Don't think there </span></p><p><span style="color: #ff0000">are no consequences to our unwise fiscal and monetary course; a potentially ugly </span></p><p><span style="color: #ff0000">tipping point is more likely than not at some point.</span></p><p><br /></p><p>Given the abuse most fiat currencies are </p><p>undergoing around the world today, coupled with obscene amounts of deficit </p><p>spending, I think gold should be viewed not just as a potential moneymaker but </p><p>as protection against the rabid inflation that will invariably damage our </p><p>economy and dilute our pocketbooks. If </p><p>you think deflation is next, I'll accept that argument - for a time - if you </p><p>accept mine, that the Fed would almost certainly panic at </p><p>another deflationary event and print to the max. This is why we're convinced </p><p>that inflation, <i>à la</i> currency dilution, is inevitable. (Harry Dent, </p><p>best-selling author of <i>The Great Crash Ahead</i>, is convinced deflation </p><p>poses our biggest economic threat, while <i>Currency Wars</i> author James </p><p>Rickards believes inflation is the real danger. You can hear them debate </p><p>the issue - and participate as a member of the audience - during the </p><p><i>Inflation-Deflation Face-Off</i> program at the upcoming <i><a href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QTpnAHpZ-2BHcpeVHY9tbI1x2iA90OCnNmzCUD4EOUcKNfmJR534y2IH7Q90aSurkvxw-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvELhGhljz1AD-2FolHk-2F25SfXZQr-2F3th7aeb4iCfS7d27pO6D-2F8QoDjaKKdBw-2BifJu5XJpZXC9-2BfcCUUvfv1-2FWVjD-2FrtHJIdwyL2Wt4Pe76lxPxwHU8EL4zLjs14ar0XYmzL" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QTpnAHpZ-2BHcpeVHY9tbI1x2iA90OCnNmzCUD4EOUcKNfmJR534y2IH7Q90aSurkvxw-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvELhGhljz1AD-2FolHk-2F25SfXZQr-2F3th7aeb4iCfS7d27pO6D-2F8QoDjaKKdBw-2BifJu5XJpZXC9-2BfcCUUvfv1-2FWVjD-2FrtHJIdwyL2Wt4Pe76lxPxwHU8EL4zLjs14ar0XYmzL" rel="nofollow">Casey Research Recovery Reality Check </a></i></p><p><i><a href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QTpnAHpZ-2BHcpeVHY9tbI1x2iA90OCnNmzCUD4EOUcKNfmJR534y2IH7Q90aSurkvxw-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvELhGhljz1AD-2FolHk-2F25SfXZQr-2F3th7aeb4iCfS7d27pO6D-2F8QoDjaKKdBw-2BifJu5XJpZXC9-2BfcCUUvfv1-2FWVjD-2FrtHJIdwyL2Wt4Pe76lxPxwHU8EL4zLjs14ar0XYmzL" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QTpnAHpZ-2BHcpeVHY9tbI1x2iA90OCnNmzCUD4EOUcKNfmJR534y2IH7Q90aSurkvxw-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvELhGhljz1AD-2FolHk-2F25SfXZQr-2F3th7aeb4iCfS7d27pO6D-2F8QoDjaKKdBw-2BifJu5XJpZXC9-2BfcCUUvfv1-2FWVjD-2FrtHJIdwyL2Wt4Pe76lxPxwHU8EL4zLjs14ar0XYmzL" rel="nofollow">Summit</a></i>.)[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Owle, post: 1406158, member: 22004"]Not formally unless there is a real crisis requiring it. It probably doesn't matter what the FED does, most of the Austrians are seeing default in the next few years. Casey Research has been interesting lately. [CENTER][URL="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QRWtRfbT-2BUuJ-2FYfCMhniCIEAcmYy8141kRCEwbWtt8lVdpv-2FoCXpuv5n8YfHR8uWd70-2FjznY-2ByQXVoBTM-2BEZzskuxx-2FWML-2B4w96u6jk9JfoNdoam6Xr5mH19VH9ahvq9P0-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvEabvmgH8Qbb526WrL4lx5GOmYyCD9lpT-2F-2FIoc-2FEFVSrjsUA-2BFTkLt-2BeEpnbOcYIvTn-2F21OSgkcQBfN7-2FnCV7A6iAcdkCdJ0b-2Fn6XFkFsY8GngFRL0psoY7xsdAscU-2FDxQ"][IMG]http://www.caseyresearch.com/sites/default/files/resize/HistoricalExamplesofRunawayInflationandProjectionsfor2014-490x354.png[/IMG][/URL] (Click on image to enlarge)[/CENTER] According to Shlaes, US inflation was 1% in 1915 (based on an earlier version of the CPI-U). Over just two years, it hit 17%. As she states, it happened because the Treasury "spent like crazy on the war, creating money to pay for it..." Given the fact that our spending and money-printing is now out of control, I projected what our inflation rate would be if we matched the inflation rates of these time periods. The first striped bar to the right represents what the CPI would register if we matched the 1940s rise. Inflation would hit 19% by 2014. (Yes, the CPI has been tinkered with many times, but this is at least what "unofficial" or "authentic" inflation would register.) In 1945, the official inflation rate was 2%. It accelerated to 14% in 24 months. If we matched this percent rise, we'd hit 15% by 2014 (middle striped bar).. And the example that kicked off the greatest bull market in gold and silver, the early 1970s. The CPI stood at 3.2% in 1972, a level close to ours today. It soared to 11% just two years later. Mimicking this rise, the third striped bar shows we'd also be at 11% in 2014. ([URL="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wiScHVC13Mzg2qGRJu9BjWx-2FiEGJipZgPL73KZOFpLzcB_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvEzL03ZjWNbO0z3A2S2XvEho7ANyAryOrlbTnA-2BnF4010mylG240RbIcvDb0fgzzblGt4zHLdpWmrwf8oQ-2BX4nPiwm0nARdPOLazkmQXL42RukuO7udhsUr0C6-2F-2FRhZJJQ"]Shadow Stats[/URL] says we're already at 10% based on 1980 methodology, so from this level we'd hit 17% in 24 months.) Could we really have inflation that high within two years? Consider the following: [LIST] [*]Fox Business reported on March 7 that "wages grew much more quickly at the end of last year than originally estimated..." This is an important data point because most economists believe you can't have higher inflation without rising wages. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Commercial and industrial loans have risen 14% year over year, and business and consumer spending are in an uptrend. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Home-building permits are at their highest point since October 2008. Existing home sales fell 0.9% last month, but that's after January sales were up 4.6%. [*]Jobless claims are coming down, retail sales gained the most in five months, and auto sales were up 16% last month. One report I read stated that we've had 24 consecutive weeks of stronger US data. [/LIST] If the economy continues to improve and more money is sloshing through the system, it's easy to see how inflation could grab hold. Yet, if you understand Austrian economics, you'll look beyond how the mainstream views inflation and to its root cause: monetary debasement. [LIST] [*]The US monetary base stands at $2.72 trillion, a 168% increase since October 2008. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]The national debt in the US has risen by a whopping $4.9 trillion just since Obama took office. It now stands at $15.5 trillion. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]The US budget deficit this year is projected to be over $1.3 trillion, an obscene amount that exceeds the [I]entire annual budget[/I] of just 20 years ago. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]According to ISI Group, there have been an incredible 122 "stimulative policy initiatives" from central banks around the world over the past seven months. [/LIST] Remember, in these historical examples, inflation was initially low and therefore off everyone's radar. But government tinkering with the monetary system lit the spark that led to a sudden and rapid rise in inflation. It caught many off guard, just like I suspect it would now. [COLOR=#ff0000]Don't think there are no consequences to our unwise fiscal and monetary course; a potentially ugly tipping point is more likely than not at some point.[/COLOR] Given the abuse most fiat currencies are undergoing around the world today, coupled with obscene amounts of deficit spending, I think gold should be viewed not just as a potential moneymaker but as protection against the rabid inflation that will invariably damage our economy and dilute our pocketbooks. If you think deflation is next, I'll accept that argument - for a time - if you accept mine, that the Fed would almost certainly panic at another deflationary event and print to the max. This is why we're convinced that inflation, [I]à la[/I] currency dilution, is inevitable. (Harry Dent, best-selling author of [I]The Great Crash Ahead[/I], is convinced deflation poses our biggest economic threat, while [I]Currency Wars[/I] author James Rickards believes inflation is the real danger. You can hear them debate the issue - and participate as a member of the audience - during the [I]Inflation-Deflation Face-Off[/I] program at the upcoming [I][URL="http://sg2.caseyresearch.com/wf/click?upn=flkojQoVnV4U9n9PwF8wibXq-2F8JL1n1-2BeRHxW0SD9QTpnAHpZ-2BHcpeVHY9tbI1x2iA90OCnNmzCUD4EOUcKNfmJR534y2IH7Q90aSurkvxw-3D_Xr7DwMzLUjGIWYZBSt5-2BJL9CG-2Bbzt5fTeh7jcme0KsxFhk5BFNcaC7W7Qf0OfHvELhGhljz1AD-2FolHk-2F25SfXZQr-2F3th7aeb4iCfS7d27pO6D-2F8QoDjaKKdBw-2BifJu5XJpZXC9-2BfcCUUvfv1-2FWVjD-2FrtHJIdwyL2Wt4Pe76lxPxwHU8EL4zLjs14ar0XYmzL"]Casey Research Recovery Reality Check Summit[/URL][/I].)[/QUOTE]
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do you think the FED will do QE3 sometime this year?
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