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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1585933, member: 41665&quot;]Maybe this really is unclear to you, idk. When Americans say/believe &quot;stocks return 6-8% over time&quot; are they factoring cost-basis, surivorship bias, taxes, real inflation? No, NEVER. </p><p><br /></p><p>So most people believe - have been convinced, and continue to desperately believe - that <b>stocks &quot;perform&quot; <i>a certain way</i></b> ... when, in most retail portfolios, stocks usually don&#039;t. </p><p><br /></p><p>At the base, there&#039;s a quasi-religious &#039;faith in Paper.&#039; And I&#039;m not overemphasizing the amnesia of Enron/Lehman/DotBomb investments, here. My favorite retort from the brainwashed Paper-Bug is &quot;My 401k has grown 50% in x decades...&quot; without even considering the CONTRIBUTIONS, lol And the tax-bite isn&#039;t getting any smaller either, chief.</p><p><br /></p><p>Total irrationality? The All Paper portfolio (99% of US investors) is nothing more or less than pure &quot;faith-based thinking&quot; - credulity stretched to the fund co&#039;s bottom-line. The &#039;All Paper&#039; investor is a sure-loser because s/he cannot see the forest for the trees; if lucky, it&#039;s zero-sum game at best. A grim future awaits: beyond the imminent Fiscal Cliff chatter, I see no evidence there will be any resolution of the ticking Debt Bomb. Rolling shocks to the economy must follow each crisis (as they have before) and each of these events will likely burn Trillion$ more in the shareholder value, the dumbest first. No, this is not 1955-2005, this is a new cycle with a new set of rules... yet uncertain. Greatly diminished real returns probably turned negative longer-term sometime around mid-2007, and only VERY AGGRESSIVE and lucky market timing will succeed, here on out. For most US retail investors, the game is over.</p><p><br /></p><p>The Great Reset will be brutal, real losses will be like 1928: &gt; -85%, and &quot;it&#039;ll never happen here!&quot; is just further proof that saps <i>still </i>worship Paper. I&#039;m guessing they always did, to some degree, more or less. <i>Homo sapiens</i> seem hard-wired for irrational optimism and selective amnesia (bullishness); in overdrive now, that&#039;s what keeps the ponzi going. </p><p><br /></p><p>I find it no small irony that - on the word of a Paper-Bug - a very rich, +300 year old Church dumps its <i>heritage </i>REAL assets first. (And you know what for? A NEW AIR-CONDITIONING SYSTEM!) Many smaller, less wealthy churches are watching &amp; will surely follow suit. So let&#039;s see what a glut of Communion Silver does to the Colonial Silver market in 2013-16. Any guesses? </p><p><br /></p><p>If modern Americans have basically abandoned common-sense, why shouldn&#039;t we be pauperized by our own stupidity? Follow the grifting mutual fund managers and hedgies, that&#039;s what you&#039;ll get! <i>Worshipping</i> Paper.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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